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The Philippines Coast Guard and Navy successfully outmaneuvered a Chinese blockade to bring food and other provisions to a remote outpost in the South China Sea -- but not before several harrowing confrontations with Chinese vessels that appeared determined to prevent the Filipino vessels from passing.

Chinese fishing vessels, known as the maritime militia, also took part in Friday's stand-off with Philippines ships that had to move quickly to avoid being rammed and to make their way through more than a dozen Chinese vessels.

The Chinese Coast Guard said the Philippines supply boats and two coast guard ships had illegally entered its waters near the Second Thomas Shoal, part of the larger South China Sea territory that China claims for itself -- a point that is fiercely opposed by the Philippines and other countries in the region that also have claims to portions of the South China Sea.

Meantime overhead, a U.S. Air Force P-8 Poseidon reconnaissance aircraft closely monitored the situation in the event that the Philippines vessels called on the U.S. for assistance as part of the two countries' mutual defense treaty.

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? The intensity of the showdowns between the Chinese and Philippines Coast Guards appears to be increasing, raising the chances of an accident or other confrontation that could lead to the intervention of the U.S. Navy, which is now on standby should Manila call for its assistance.

SUGGEST READING:

• ABS-CBN: Philippines says China 'harassed' new resupply mission for BRP Sierra Madre by Jauhn Etienne Villarue
• Reuters: In cat and mouse game, Philippines resupplies troops in South China Sea atoll by Jay Ereno

In this image taken by the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG), seven Chinese vessels, including unmarked "maritime militia" ships, surrounded a pair of PCG ships during a re-supply mission on Friday.

Zambian President Haikinde Hichilema landed in the southern Chinese megacity of Shenzhen on Sunday to kick off a six-day visit to China that will include highly-anticipated talks with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping to finalize the details of a debt restructuring deal signed last June.

Chinese creditors own an estimated two-thirds of Zambia's bilateral debt and played a central role in more than two years of negotiations that resulted in the deal that was agreed to in Paris earlier this summer.

Hichilema's challenge this week, according to Zambian scholar Emmanuel Matambo, researcher director at the Centre for Africa-China Studies at the University of Johannesburg, is to keep Beijing engaged in the debt restructuring process while at the same time try to persuade the Chinese government to provide new development financing:

• DEBT RESTRUCTURING: China was curiously reticent about the debt restructuring process right up to the consummation of the deal in June 2023. Thus, the invitation to visit China is supposed to clear some of the misunderstandings, if not in substance, at least in form. Hichilema will want to get more assurance from China about continuing its commitment to Zambia in terms of infrastructure in the transport and energy sector.

• DEBT WRITE-OFFS: There has been widespread disenchantment about the rising costs of commodities in Zambia. Beijing, through its Embassy in Zambia, is well aware of how Hichilema has been embarrassed by angry citizens twice this year in the Mandevu constituency. To help him, China might actually want to write off some of the debt owed to it by Zambia.

• STABLE TIES: China's detractors are keen to draw adverse conclusions from China's unusual silence during the debt restructuring negotiations. China was silent but not hostile to the process. Relations between the two countries remain on an even keel and will do so, if not out of genuine diplomacy, then out of history and necessity.

The president is also scheduled to meet with Chinese investors to try and entice them to invest in Zambia's mining, energy and infrastructure sectors.

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? This trip is going to be critical for both countries to try and close the debt restructuring deal and put it behind them. China's critics have long blamed Beijing for dragging out the process, while Hichilema is coming under increasing pressure at home for letting this drag on. While the deal may have been agreed to back in June, it still needs to be finalized by the various creditors, which is what he's hopefully going to do this week.

SUGGESTED READING:

• Reuters: Zambian president to visit China, seeks to formalise June debt deal by Joe Cash
• Associated Press: Debt-plagued Zambia reaches deal with China, other nations to rework $6.3B in loans, French say by Sylvie Corbet

South Africa is reportedly in negotiation with the Chinese electric vehicle giant BYD to open a manufacturing plant in the country, according to the cabinet. BYD, China’s best-selling car brand, launched its first e-vehicle in SA last year. South Africa has a robust auto-building sector, which includes a plant by another Chinese automaker, BAIC, which produces 100,000 vehicles per year. (ENGINEERING NEWS)

The Chinese tech giant Huawei has opened a cloud data center in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, following the establishment of a regional headquarters in the kingdom earlier this year. The center will support AI applications and language models in Arabic, as well as Saudi government services. It is Huawei’s 30th cloud center globally. The company plans to invest $400 million in the Saudi cloud sector in the next five years. (REUTERS)

The IMF’s Managing Director, Kristalina Georgieva, said she had “very productive and substantive discussions with the Chinese leadership” during a recent visit to Beijing. She met with Premier Li Qiang, Vice Premier He Lifeng, Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng, and Finance Minister Liu Kun, as well as with the head of the BRICS-led New Development Bank, Dilma Rousseff. “I am grateful to China for recognizing the role of the IMF at the center of the global financial safety net,” she said. (AL JAZEERA)

The parliament of Vanuatu has elected Sato Kilman as prime minister, following a vote of no confidence against his predecessor Ishmael Kalsakau on the grounds that he endangered Vanuatu’s non-aligned status by signing a security pact with Australia. Opposition parties charged that the pact endangered relations with China, the island country’s biggest creditor. The U.S. and its allies have tried to get strategically-positioned Pacific Island states not to forge alliances with China in the context of regional competition. (REUTERS)

Kenyan President William Ruto linked Africa's worsening debt crisis with the fight against climate change.  “If you don’t solve the debt issue, you can’t solve the climate issue,” he told the Financial Times at the Africa Climate Summit. He added that China is central to that discussion: "they cannot walk away from this conversation about debt distress." (FINANCIAL TIMES)

New ambassadors from Saudi Arabia and Iran arrived in each other's capitals on Tuesday, marking the formal restoration of diplomatic ties between the two Gulf rivals. Ties between the two countries ruptured in 2016 but were revived in March when the sides agreed to a China-brokered détente. (AGENCE FRANCE PRESSE)

A high-level Venezuelan delegation led by Vice President Delcy Rodriguez and Oil Minister Pedro Tellechea arrived in Shanghai on Tuesday in a bid to revive the South American country's oil sector. The two are reportedly looking to close JV deals between their respective national oil companies but it won't be easy. China has already lent Venezuela $60 billion, quite a bit of which remains unpaid. (BLOOMBERG)

China and Indonesia are reportedly discussing expanding the controversial Chinese Bandung-to-Jakarta high-speed rail project to Indonesia’s second-biggest city of Surabaya, over 700km away. This follows Chinese Premier Li Qiang taking a trial run of a section of the yet-to-be-completed line. The project has been plagued by delays, cost overruns, and local resistance. (REUTERS)

Bank of China, the most internationalized of China’s four state-owned banks, opened a branch in the Saudi capital of Riyadh. The launch comes two years after first getting approval from the kingdom. Chen Weiqing, China’s ambassador to Saudi Arabia, said the opening reflected a “new stage” of cooperation between the two countries. RMB internationalization is reportedly key to the expansion, with several companies, including the power giant ACWA, signing Memoranda of Understanding with BOC covering yuan use and green financing. (SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST)

China’s Premier Li Qiang warned against a ‘new cold war’ as the ASEAN summit moved on to a series of talks between the bloc and its partners.

Calling for ways to "appropriately handle differences and disputes," Li said: "At present, it is very important to oppose taking sides, bloc confrontation and a new Cold War."

China, Japan, and South Korea are at the summit, as are the U.S., Australia and India. However, neither U.S. President Joe Biden nor his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping is present.

The summit was marked by little major progress on a series of key stalemates. Many of these directly or indirectly involve China and are increasingly being pulled into larger geopolitical disputes with the U.S. and its partners. They come as the bloc struggles to demonstrate its own relevance.

Progress on Key ASEAN Disputes Measured in Millimeters

• MYANMAR: U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris pushed Myanmar’s military government to end the “horrific violence” that has killed thousands since the military coup in 2021. Despite criticism of the bloc’s ineffectual response to the crisis, Indonesian President Joko Widodo said the five-point plan ASEAN outlined in 2021 would remain the roadmap to peace. The bloc will also appoint a troika of the 2022-2024 chairs, Cambodia, Indonesia, and Laos, to spearhead the effort. As a key ally to Cambodia, Laos, and the Myanmarese junta, China’s role could be key. Meanwhile, Myanmar was stripped of its ASEAN chair in 2026, with the Philippines stepping in instead. The military junta rejected the move as unfair and is reportedly considering applying to join the BRICS group.

• SOUTH CHINA SEA: Li skirted the controversy around China’s newly-published map that shows its territory overlapping with areas claimed by several ASEAN member states. Li said mutual trust between China and ASEAN has grown. Meanwhile, a draft chair’s statement said land reclamation projects in the South China Sea (many of which are driven by China, although not exclusively) have "eroded trust and confidence, increased tensions, and may undermine peace, security, and stability in the region." Meanwhile, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., a key figure in the current SCS conflict, said, "Some progress was made in discussing the milestone issues and a preliminary review of the Single Draft Negotiating Text” of a possible Code of Conduct for the region, a long-delayed process.

• FREE TRADE: China is pushing for the speeding up of negotiations around the newest version of its Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with ASEAN, saying the talks around the ASEAN-China FTA 3.0 should be concluded by 2024. This is one of 39 initiatives listed for cooperation with the bloc, which also includes cooperation of the BRI, safe navigation, and law enforcement.

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Amid relatively ineffectual handling of these sticking points, ASEAN risks having its internal sticking points involving China rapidly escalating into full superpower disputes.

SUGGESTED READING:

• Benar News: Indonesia’s President Pushes Back Against Talk of Tensions, Divisions Within ASEAN by Tria Dianti
• AP: Myanmar Won’t Be Allowed to Lead Association of Southeast Asian Nations in 2026, In a Blow to Generals

Chinese Premier Li Qiang is gaining unexpected prominence thanks to the fact that he is standing in for President Xi Jinping at this week’s ASEAN and G20 summits, where he'll represent the PRC in the same room as people like U.S. President Joe Biden.

Li entered the post in March and has since focused on business-friendly outreach during a trip to Germany in June, as well as engaging directly with business leaders like Apple’s Tim Cook in an attempt to defuse ‘decoupling’ jitters.

Li served as Xi’s second in command as far back as the early 2000s, and China watchers don’t expect him to encroach on Xi’s growing decision-making power. In the words of Yun Sun, the head of the China program at the Stimson Center: "I don’t expect him to announce anything significant diplomatically or security-wise. Those are reserved for Xi.”

Li Qiang’s Meetings During the ASEAN Summit:

• PHILIPPINES: Li met with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit. The meeting comes amid heightened tensions around Chinese disruptions of a Philippine resupply mission to a makeshift base in a region of the South China Sea claimed by both sides. Details of the conversation were not released. In a speech at the summit, Marcos said cooperation in the region requires an environment conducive to peace, security and stability, anchored in international law. (LA PRENSA LATINA)

• VIETNAM: Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh and Li met in Jakarta and agreed to deepen cooperation on both the state and Communist Party levels. Chinh said that Vietnam sees its relationship with China as a strategic choice and a top priority. This comes as Hanoi is reportedly mulling an upgrade of its relationship with the United States. (VN EXPRESS)

• JAPAN: Li and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida didn’t have a formal sit-down during the ASEAN Plus Three meetings that brought China, South Korea, and Japan into conversation with their Southeast Asian counterparts. However, the two reportedly had a brief chat during which Kishida advocated for "constructive and stable" relations and outlined Japan’s take on the release of wastewater from its damaged Fukushima nuclear power plant, which has caused a fight with Beijing. (MAINICHI)

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Li Qiang's relative lack of autonomy adds an additional barrier to progress on a host of simmering issues at this week's round of summits. 

SUGGESTED READING: 

• Bloomberg: China's No. 2 Steps Onto World Stage as Xi Skips G20 in India
• Anadolu: At China-ASEAN Summit, Philippines Links Maritime Cooperation with Regional Peace by Riyaz ul Khaliq

The African Climate Summit wrapped up on Wednesday with the adoption of the Nairobi Declaration. It calls for: 

• Reforms of the international financing system to lower the cost of climate financing for poor countries via more concessional lending and targeted allocation of IMF Special Drawing Rights.
• Taxes on international oil trade, shipping, and aviation to help fund climate mitigation and adaptation.
• The adoption of a Global Climate Finance Charter by 2025

While the summit was historic as the first Africa-focused climate summit, it was marked by complaints that Western corporate and government actors crowded out African priorities. Activists said the emphasis on carbon trading (highly under-priced in the African market), carbon sequestration and "green growth" deflected African demands that rich nations actually cut their emissions and sidelined the urgent need for funding to help the continent deal with the accelerating climate collapse.

NOTABLE FUNDING COMMITMENTS

• Kenya's President William Ruto announced a package of $23 billion from "governments, the private sector, multilateral banks and philanthropists" for "green growth, mitigation and adaptation efforts across Africa." It's unclear how this number breaks down.

• $4.5 billion from the United Arab Emirates to boost African clean energy capacity fivefold

• $482 million in debt cancellation and new debt from Germany

• $30 million for food security from the United States, derided by one delegate as “not even enough as a starting point to galvanize others to contribute”

NOTABLE NO-SHOWS

• China: Despite the presence of Ecology and Environment Minister Huang Runqiu, almost no Chinese companies or funders joined the summit

• Leaders from South Africa, Nigeria and Egypt, Africa's largest economies and some of its worst polluters.

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? The Nairobi Declaration will feed into conversations at the UN's upcoming COP28 climate summit in Dubai. For all its many flaws, the summit did foreground the toxic overlap of the climate crisis and barriers to financing. African countries pay five times as much for debt than other regions.

SUGGESTED READING:

• Financial Times: Inside the Inaugural African Climate Summit by Kenza Bryan, Andres Schipani and Kaori Yoshida
• AP: Africa Climate Summit Links 'Unfair' Debt Burden With Calls to Make Continent's Green Assets Pay Off by Cara Anna and Evelyne Musambi

Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang sought to soothe tensions with its neighbors in Southeast Asia during his keynote address on Wednesday at the ASEAN leaders summit in Jakarta.

Li did not specifically reference the recent confrontations with the Philippines in the South China Sea, nor did he mention the controversial map that China released last week, which further angered a number of Southeast Asian countries that have ongoing boundary disputes with Beijing.

Instead, he said, "China and ASEAN have succeeded in blazing a correct path of long-term good-neighborliness and friendship." Li's speech also drew on a number of longstanding Chinese talkings that reference the current geopolitical turbulence, including "the world is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century."

It's unlikely that Li's bland speech will make much of an impression on his fellow leaders at the summit, especially after Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr.'s far more point remarks on Tuesday that directly addressed the South China Sea crisis -- even though he seemingly went out of his way not to mention China by name:

• OPPOSE HEGEMONIC POWER IN SOUTHEAST ASIA: “[ASEAN] must never allow the international peaceful order to be subjected to the forces of might, applied for a hegemonic ambition.”

• ASSERTION OF PHILIPPINES AGENCY: "The Philippines firmly rejects misleading narratives that frame the disputes in the South China Sea solely through the lens of strategic competition between two powerful countries. This not only denies us of our independence and our agency, but it also disregards our own legitimate interests."

While President Marcos was outspoken in his defense of Philippines agency in the duel with China over contested maritime territory, it appears that he did not want to escalate the issue further at the summit.

Manila did not request ASEAN to issue a joint statement on the South China Sea, making it highly unlikely that ASEAN will directly respond to the crisis.

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? As tense as relations are between China and several of its ASEAN neighbors, this week's summit in Jakarta is probably not going to be the venue where those differences are aired. ASEAN is very much a consensus-based organization that has long sought to avoid divisive disputes among its members and the major powers.

SUGGESTED READING:

• Nikkei Asia: ASEAN summit begins as China's new territorial map fuels tensions by Tsubasa Suruga, Ismi Damayanti and Nana Shibata
• Deustche Welle: ASEAN: Indonesia, Malaysia urge staying out of global rows

Whether by coincidence or design, three Southeast Asian countries launched high-profile joint military exercises this week with various major powers while leaders from these countries met in Jakarta for the ongoing ASEAN summit.

On Sunday, the Chinese and Thai navies kicked off the annual Blue Strike 2023 joint exercises that includes a number of advanced Chinese warships, submarines and hundreds of troops.

And in Indonesia, thousands of army soldiers from the U.S. and Australia took part in joint jungle training exercises with their Indonesian counterparts as part of Super Garuda 2023.

Also, this week, U.S., Japanese and Philippines navy forces conducted anti-submarine warfare drills followed by a first-ever joint sail in the South China Sea.

That joint sail between the U.S. and the Philippines navies definitely got a lot of attention in Beijing, where there's mounting anxiety over the increasingly close military ties between Washington and Manila.

Communist Party-run media, however, is trying to downplay the issue by showcasing the views of prominent scholars like Zhuo Hua from Beijing Foreign Studies University and Ding Duo from the China Academy of South China Sea Studies, who made the case in the Chinese-language edition of Global Times on Tuesday that the U.S. is an unreliable partner for the Philippines:

This marked the first time that Philippine and U.S. Navy ships crossed through the waters of the South China Sea west of Palawan Island in the Philippines, which is adjacent to the South China Sea's Spratly Islands.

This move by the United States and the Philippines is highly provocative and carries strong symbolic significance. Its purpose appears to be to disrupt ASEAN's stance on the South China Sea issue. Since the Marcos government came to power, the Philippines has taken a series of actions aligning itself closely with the United States, including joint military exercises and provocative actions near Thitu Island.

The joint maritime patrol in the South China Sea by the United States and the Philippines at this moment sends a signal of strengthening the U.S.-Philippines alliance to the outside world. Simultaneously, it conveys a message to ASEAN countries and may attempt to influence ASEAN's position on the South China Sea issue.

It's true that in the short term, the United States and the Philippines have found common interests and cooperation opportunities. However, as the objective dynamics of regional power evolve, their interests may eventually diverge when the balance of power shifts.

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? The optics of all this military firepower on display this week seem to convey the sober message that if diplomacy fails, then today's joint exercises could quickly become tomorrow's reality.

SUGGESTED READING:

• Global Times: What does it mean US-Philippines joint cruise in South China Sea ahead of ASEAN summit (in Chinese)
• Sydney Morning Herald: Australia, Philippines team up to deter Chinese ‘coercion’ in disputed waters by Matthew Knott

The United States joined a growing list of countries to reject China's territorial claims detailed in its new standard map that was published last week.

State Department Deputy Spokesperson Vedant Patel addressed the issues on Tuesday at the daily press briefing and said Beijing's claims are "unlawful" and called on China to settle territorial disputes in the South China Sea in accordance with the international law of the sea.

While U.S. criticism of China's controversial territorial claims was widely expected, the ferocity of the pushback against the map by Asian countries is more surprising, according to Prashanth Parameswaran, deputy head of research at the Washington, D.C.-based consulting firm BowerGroupAsia and author of the popular ASEANWONK newsletter:

It is rare to see such a series of quick coordinated statements among Southeast Asian states, with five countries issuing statements in the span of just four days.

While the Philippines and Vietnam have generally been the two more vocal South China Sea claimants in Southeast Asia, Malaysia, which has seen the issue be in the spotlight a few times already during Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s first year in office, was the first to issue a response.

Even Brunei, whose responses to China are often the quietest and the hardest to detect publicly among the four Southeast Asian claimant states, issued a statement of its own.

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? The timing of the map's release was just reckless in terms of ruining whatever positive vibe there was coming out of the BRICS summit in Johannesburg last week and it likely contributed to Xi Jinping's decision to stay home from both the ASEAN and G20 summits. 

SUGGESTED READING:

• South China Morning Post: US views China map claims over South China Sea, disputed Indian areas as ‘unlawful’: State Department by Igor Patrick
• The Diplomat: China’s New ‘Standard Map’ Does Not Mean What You Think It Means by Mark Raymond and David A. Welch

China dispatched a high-level Communist Party (CPC) emissary to Vietnam days before U.S. President Joe Biden is set to arrive when he is expected to upgrade diplomatic ties with Hanoi.

Liu Jianchao, head of the CPC's international liaison department, met with the General Secretary of Vietnam's Communist Party, Nguyễn Phú Trọng, on Tuesday.

The official readout of the meeting, according to Vietnamese state media, was rather bland with few details of what they talked about. However, the timing of the visit suggests that Hanoi wants to convey its assurances that Biden's visit is not intended to roil ties with Beijing.

Biden will make a stopover in Vietnam on his way home from the G20 summit in New Delhi and is expected to upgrade bilateral ties to a “strategic partnership,” or possibly even a “comprehensive strategic partnership” – the top tier in Vietnam’s diplomatic hierarchy and the same level that Hanoi currently has with Beijing.

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Vietnamese leaders have moved quickly this year to bolster diplomatic ties not only with the U.S. but also with a number of Asian neighbors in what is likely a hedge against China. So far this year, Hanoi has elevated relations with South Korea, Singapore and Australia, with Indonesia next.

SUGGESTED READING:

• South China Morning Post: How South China Sea moves by Beijing are sending Vietnam, others in region deeper into US embrace by Shi Jiangtao
• The Diplomat: Why Biden’s Visit to Vietnam Is a Triumph for the US by Hai Hong Nguyen

China's steadily worsening ties with India soured further on Tuesday when Beijing's ambassador to Kathmandu, Chen Song, criticized New Delhi's "policies towards Nepal and other neighbors" as "not so friendly."

Chen's remarks sparked an angry response in the Indian media, which accused the ambassador of having a "foul mouth."

The pace of news business development deals between Saudi Arabia and China appears to be gaining momentum amid a slate of new announcements this week, highlighting increasingly close financial ties between the two countries:

• MOVIES: Leading Saudi Arabian distributor CineWaves Films has opened an office in China as part of a strategy focusing on international expansion and opening up opportunities for Saudi films worldwide. (SCREEN DAILY)

• ENERGY: Saudi energy giant ACWA Power signed a memorandum of understanding with the Bank of China that will facilitate the development of green hydrogen, water desalination and other initiatives. (ARAB NEWS)

• SOLAR: China-based solar sector supplier GCL Technology Holdings Ltd. is in advanced talks with Saudi Arabia about opening its first overseas factory as the nations aim to extend their energy ties beyond oil. (BLOOMBERG)

• STOCKS: The Saudi Tadawul Group, which owns the Saudi stock exchange Tadawul, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange signed a memorandum of understanding to “promote mutual development and cooperation.” (AL-MONITOR)

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations leaders’ summit kicks off in Jakarta on Tuesday as it fights for its relevance and unity amid mounting geopolitical tensions.

Increasing jockeying between China and the United States in the South China Sea has piled pressure on member states. But the fact that both Chinese President Xi Jinping and his U.S. counterpart Joe Biden won’t attend has also raised questions about the group’s ongoing relevance. Vice President Kamala Harris and Premier Li Qiang will stand in for them.

One of the key issues at the summit will be amendments to decision-making procedures. ASEAN’s focus on consensus has tended to cause stalemates and slowed down responses to fast-moving crises. The bloc is reportedly considering an “ASEAN minus X” approach, which would allow it to move forward without undecided members.

Meanwhile, President Joko Widodo of Indonesia, the outgoing head of the bloc, warned of the growing U.S.-China tensions in the region: "ASEAN has agreed to not be a proxy to any powers. Don't turn our ship into an arena for rivalry that is destructive." That might be difficult as wider geopolitics increasingly seeps into regional disputes.

Big Fights at This Week’s ASEAN Summit:

• MAP: Tensions around territorial disputes in the South China Sea were already at a high simmer even before the release of China’s newest regional map, which includes maritime areas also claimed by Malaysia, Vietnam, and the Philippines. Standoffs between Philippine supply ships and the Chinese coast guard have drawn a response from the United States, which invoked its mutual defense agreements with Manila. This markedly increased the danger of open conflict in one of the busiest shipping regions in the world. A long-delayed Code of Conduct for the region will also be under discussion, with delegates setting the “aspirational goal” of concluding talks with China over the document by 2026.

• MYANMAR: The ongoing violence by the military junta leading Myanmar threatens to split the group. “Malaysia and other member countries gave their views that we cannot allow this to continue without strong and effective measures imposed on the junta,” said Malaysian Foreign Minister Zambry Abdul Kadir. Geopolitics play a role in the crisis. The military government is aligned with China, and Thailand’s recent informal talks with both the junta and deposed democratically elected leader Aung Sang Suu Kyi were criticized as undermining Indonesia’s “quiet diplomacy.” NGOs accuse the military government of killing more than 4,000 people.

• FUKUSHIMA: China’s dismay at the recent release of radioactive water from Japan’s Fukushima nuclear reactor has been channeled into performative rage by its state media. This is despite a report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (with contributions from Chinese scientists) saying that the environmental impact of the release is largely negligible. China will likely use the dispute to try and embarrass Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (who is attending the summit) and to create distance between Tokyo and Asian states at a time when Japan and South Korea are much more united and both are moving closer to the United States.

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT: The summit is a key test for ASEAN’s representation of Southeast Asian interests at a moment when geopolitics in their backyard threaten to drown out their voices.

SUGGESTED READING:

• Al Jazeera: Malaysia Calls for ‘Strong’ Measures on Myanmar as ASEAN Meets
• Nikkei Asia: ASEAN Summit Begins as China’s New Territorial Map Fuels Tensions by Tsubasa Suruga, Ismi Damayanti and Nana Shibata

Considering the caliber of events Chinese President Xi Jinping is not showing up to, it’s notable that he made time to meet with Benin’s President Patrice Athanase Guillaume Talon on Friday.

Talon led a four-day state visit to Beijing, which saw the establishment of a strategic partnership. While this would usually not draw much attention, it was notable against the background of a wave of coups in Francophone Africa and anti-French protests in countries like Niger.

The anti-French turn could hold some opportunities for China in a region where it has traditionally faced obstacles.

Xi emphasized China’s unique rise to prosperity as a counter-model to Western development. This is a frequent talking point in Beijing’s outreach to Africa, but one that resonates particularly in the context of France’s historical grip on West African economies known as Françafrique.

According to Xinhua, “Xi said that China has embarked on a modernization path different from that of the West. He noted that the key is always adhering to China's national conditions and the path of socialism with Chinese characteristics. China supports Benin in independently exploring a development path suited to its actual conditions, and stands ready to strengthen exchanges of governance experience with Benin.”

During his trip, Talon also announced that Benin abolished visa entry for Chinese visitors. A statement from his office read: “Benin is opening up fully to China to create a more solid bridge of cooperation that will benefit both countries.”

They signed agreements on BRI, green energy, digital economy, agriculture and health cooperation, and a tech deal aimed at turning Benin into a “world-class logistics center.” China-Benin trade jumped 30% since the same time last year.

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Talon’s visit provides a glimpse of China’s small states diplomacy and its extremely influential African talking points in action.

SUGGESTED READING:

• Xinhua: Xi Focus: China, Benin establish strategic partnership as heads of state hold talks in Beijing
• North Africa Post: Benin scraps visa requirements for Chinese tourists, investors

China’s response to last week’s coup in Gabon kept to well-trodden themes. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Webin told reporters: 

“China is closely following the developments in Gabon. We call on relevant sides in the country to proceed from the fundamental interests of the nation and the people, resolve differences peacefully through dialogue, restore order at an early date, ensure the personal safety of President Ali Bongo Ondimba, and safeguard the larger interests of national peace, stability and development.”

However, the specific reference to the fate of former president Ali Bongo (whose father Omar also ruled Gabon for decades) hinted at the close attention Beijing has paid to maintaining its relationship with the country.

Former Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang visited Gabon during the Chinese FM’s customary first trip of the year, which is always to Africa. Bongo also traveled to Beijing for a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in April, who called him “an old friend of China.”

While the fall of Ali Bongo seems to undo some of this diplomatic work, the Africa-China expert Cornelia Tremann argued in a piece for the Lowy Institute that China is actually well-positioned to take advantage of the coup:

• FRANCE: The military takeover in Gabon is the sixth in recent years in former French colonies. It adds to a growing narrative that the deep connections to Paris that used to prop up West African regimes are now their fatal flaw. Anti-French and anti-Western sentiments that now seem to carry popular support in parts of West Africa potentially open opportunities for China, despite its worries about stability.

• CORPORATE: While Gabon only supplies a small fraction of China’s commodity needs, Chinese companies already occupy an outsized portion of the country’s mineral and timber sectors. Gabon also has a lot of oil, which could feed into China’s larger search for diversified sources.

• STRATEGIC: Ali Bongo’s visit to China in April saw the relationship upgraded to a Comprehensive Strategic Cooperative Partnership - China’s highest level of bilateral relationship. While his fall could destabilize it, the fact that his successor is also a member of the Bongo family could reward China for its long cultivation of ties to the dynasty. Gabon has been rumored to be a potential location for a military base. If true, the strategic upgrade and the wave of anti-Western feeling in the region could be significant factors.

Read Cornelia Tremann’s full article on the Lowy Institute’s The Interpreter blog

Chinese Reactions to the Coups in Gabon and Niger:

• CHINESE EXPATS ON THE GROUND IN GABON: "Xiao Wu, a native of Zhejiang who runs a shoe business in Gabon, said the situation has gradually stabilized, and there are almost no large-scale conflicts on the road. Chinese expatriates remain at home or at their offices in business parks. Xiao Wu said "For African countries, there will be a certain degree of riots almost every time the leadership term changes. If you have not experienced the 'change', you have not been in Africa. In fact, this kind of situation is quite common.” "He added that the government had notified them that it would cut off the Internet and to stockpile food during the election period: "[They said] stay at home during this period, and the embassy also sent us a message to remind us that there is basically nothing going on except that the industrial parks and shops are closed."" (HENAN BUSINESS DAILY BLOG - in Chinese)

• FADING FRENCH INFLUENCE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR CHINA: "Africans look at Macron, then look at China, they know they have a new choice ... France's presence in West Africa is in jeopardy, and the Western economic colonial order is disintegrating extremely quickly. Former French President Mitterrand once famously said: Without French Africa, France would be a poor country. Africa is awakening, and this day is accelerating." Ding Chenling: Commentator (SINA.COM - in Chinese)

• WEST AFRICAN COUPS COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR RUSSIA: "[A]lthough Russia has many advantages, it does not mean that it has won. For Russia, its first wild card is chaotic Africa itself. Taking Niger as an example, the current attitude of the Presidential Guard Army towards Russian military power is actually quite ambiguous. "On the one hand, as mentioned above, it has not completely given up its dependence on the West, and there is still the possibility of cooperation between the two parties in the future. On the other hand, the army has not clearly ruled out the possibility of defecting to Russia (and Wagner). What it is doing is hedging its bets and waiting to see what happens. "Regardless of who fills the power vacuum, the West or Russia, Niger will find it difficult to truly shake off the shackles of major powers due to its geographic location, security, and economic dependence, and it will be a long way off to achieve independence." Liu Yuhan and Wang Jiate, Researchers: Minzhi International Institute (POLITICAL SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS FORUM WECHAT PAGE - in Chinese)

The first day of the inaugural African Climate Summit in Nairobi started with long queues as thousands of journalists and tens of thousands of delegates tried to get into the Kenyatta International Convention Center.

More than twenty heads of state and key climate figures like China’s Minister of Ecology and Environment, Huang Runqiu, and John Kerry, the U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate, are attending.

Despite Africa’s minuscule emissions, distorted weather patterns are causing annual economic losses of billions of dollars and many deaths per year. African countries have to raise about $124 billion annually for climate mitigation, but so far, they have only received $28 billion. The summit has been marketed as a turning point in preparation for the upcoming COP28 climate summit.

The event was punctuated by protests. An open letter signed by 400 civil society organizations decried the centrality of Western stakeholders like the consultancy firm McKinsey & Co in the Summit's agenda:

"The Summit concept note, as proposed by McKinsey & Company, reflects the interests of the US, McKinsey and the western corporations they represent. Meanwhile, Africa’s stated priorities are conspicuously missing, as a result ...

“[Proposed] concepts and false solutions [like carbon sequestration and a strong focus on carbon markets] are led by Western interests while being marketed as African priorities. In truth, though, these approaches will embolden wealthy nations and large corporations to continue polluting the world, much to Africa’s detriment.”

Huang Runqiu is leading a Chinese delegation to the event but it is still unclear how prominently Chinese engagement will feature there.

China Global South Project’s climate reporter Njenga Hakeenah is at the event and will tweet updates throughout the day here and here.

The highlight of the Africa Climate Summit (ACS) for Chinese e-vehicle manufacturers was President William Ruto’s self-drive from the State House to the Kenyatta International Convention Center in a small, bright yellow e-car.

Manufactured in Liuzhou, China, the Air Yetu was assembled in Nairobi in a partnership between Kenyan EV company Autopax and China’s SAIC-GM-Wuling (SGMW). Yetu is Swahili for ‘Ours’.

Ruto’s arrival in the ‘Lemon Yellow ’ was highlighted in most local media but beyond that, Chinese products and services are not prominent at the summit, unusual for Kenyan events of this kind.

Despite the week-long event offering several partnership opportunities in energy, resilient agricultural solutions, and water provision, it is as if there is nothing the Chinese manufacturers have to offer. Keep in mind that at least 20 presidents are expected to attend.

In contrast, there are many booths featuring notable European institutions like the German Agency for International Cooperation (GIZ), the European Union, as well as Western-led institutions like the World Bank.

There are also several e-mobility products like e-bikes, e-golf carts, EVs and scooters from brands like Hyundai.

By the end of Monday, the only other Chinese company present was SUNI, a carbon credits company.

A growing number of joint research projects between Chinese and African scientists on climate change is increasing collaboration, producing different data to help address challenges brought on by changing weather patterns.

At the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) in Nairobi, Zhu Yuhao, a Chinese post-doctoral student undertaking studies in soils and manure emissions has joined scientists from ILRI-member countries in Africa and Europe to investigate the contribution of livestock farming to greenhouse gas emissions.

Zhu, who comes from China’s northern Shandong province, is also researching how manure from domestic animals that chew cud like cattle and sheep increases nitrous oxide and methane in the air. The two gases are potent but carbon dioxide remains the major culprit, accounting for 66% of all the gases contributing to global warming.

As Zhu shuttles between the lab at ILRI headquarters and the organization’s research sample land lot sites to collect and analyze data across Kenya, his findings will contribute to creating a much-needed climate change research database benefitting farmers and policymakers in agriculture. Across the continent, scientific data is largely unavailable, and any new findings will help ILRI advise and improve any policies in the agricultural sector, especially in livestock farming.

Once Zhu and his team conclude their investigations, the outcomes will help advise a rollout process where Kenyan farmers adopt practices to reduce methane emissions and provide the ideal conditions for sustainable agricultural practices.

For a clearer picture of how this works, I spoke with Zhu on his interests in research in Sub-Saharan Africa, where he cited the similarities in challenges and opportunities with agricultural practices between Kenya and China.

For clarity and length, this Q&A has been lightly edited.

NJENGA HAKEENAH: There are several similarities and differences between smallholder agricultural practices in African countries and in China. Which good practices have worked in China that farmers can implement not only in Kenya but across various African countries?

ZHU YUHAO: Both Kenya and China are still developing countries and most of their agriculture is dominated by smallholder farmers. We are all suffering from climate change, but we may have different problems. In Kenya, you do not have enough agricultural inputs like fertilizer, but in China, inputs are too high. We are trying to optimize resources like land, water, and pesticide use through technology. 

This optimization can work in Kenya and in Africa given that both the government and farmers have noticed that we need to take care of the environment. In China, with the government's guidance and the farmers' perceptions changing, they have already started to reduce the fertilizer inputs, which are often excessive, and they are taking more care of the farmlands.

Here, the farmers have also noticed that climate is the basis for their productivity and so they started to use manure to improve soil quality while also reducing greenhouse gases from their farming activities.

NJENGA: Your project entails studying how much greenhouse gases farm animals and the soils produce and also how to practically reduce these emissions. How does this happen, exactly?

YUHAO: What I am looking at here for example is how to use animal waste to produce biogas. The byproduct is manure that has reduced levels of nitrous oxide and methane which happens during storage. We then use this waste as organic fertilizer (the bio-slurry). 

In the fields, we are testing how different practices increase or decrease the gases emitted by the soil. We collect gas samples from the different land lots using special equipment and then test them in the lab. The data we collect then tells us if the gases are in the normal range or if there are discrepancies. From this, we can then tell how each agricultural practice contributes to the increase or decrease of greenhouse gases.

NJENGA: In this collaboration between scientists, what are the skills and technologies from China that can work for Kenya? 

YUHAO: Like the many other things on trial in China, the biodigester technology was introduced to Chinese farmers as they were mainly using charcoal and crop biomass like maize stalks to cook their food and provide heating. But because using charcoal and crop waste causes a lot of air pollution, China introduced biogas to the farmers. To make it work, the government gave subsidies to encourage uptake.

Also, instead of using crop waste as fuel, farmers started using it as animal forage. In addition, they started returning crop waste to the farmlands to fertilize the soil, which benefits the ground and the climate. In all, there are some successes and failures with this move but across Kenya and in China, we can keep learning from each other.

Again, the Chinese government is trying to persuade farmers to start using more manure and reduce the usage of chemical fertilizers. The manure is used to substitute part of the chemical fertilizer. 

In Kenya, we lack synthetic fertilizer inputs and suffer from low yields yet there are so many animals and a lot of animal waste. At ILRI, we’re demonstrating that animal waste is usable like fertilizer after composting or after doing some treatment (such as biogas digestion). This increases crop yields while producing biogas which reduces greenhouse gas emissions, which is good for the environment. 

NJENGA: How important is indigenous and traditional knowledge when it comes to mitigating the effects of climate change?

YUHAO: China is a big country but the cropland is limited, which pushes people to try and increase agricultural productivity for maximum benefit. The older generation knew the best time to start planting, fertilizing, or weeding their crops. But then, the weather patterns were a lot more predictable than they are now. 

To cope now, we have to understand the climate predictions first, which is possible through collaborations like we are doing here at ILRI. This is what will enable us to better understand climate patterns to help with precision inputs similar to what is happening in China.

NJENGA: How important are the early warning systems and what can Kenya and other African countries adopt from China to make them a reliable source of predicting how the weather changes, which determines productivity or even times to harvest?

YUHAO: China is very well equipped in terms of early warning systems. Elsewhere in Europe, countries like Germany install many meteorology stations, which allows the accurate collection of weather data. While this may not be possible for countries like Kenya in the short term, it may be good for the government to start prioritizing weather data collection for better monitoring.

Weather information is important for the farming systems since it helps determine the best time for farmers to harvest or plant or even wait before engaging in any farm work. Better prediction enables farmers to be more productive and avoid losses on their farms in terms of livestock deaths or lost harvest.

Present during the interview was Yuhao’s supervisor Sonja Leitner, the soil and manure nutrient cycling scientist at ILRI. She added that to make it possible for better data collection, ILRI is contributing data to the Trans-African Hydro-Meteorological Observatory (TAHMO), which is developing a vast network of weather stations across the continent.

The pan-African network seeks to install one weather station every 500 kilometers and the data generated will be fed into a centralized network which will harmonize generation and collection of the weather patterns needed to improve climate modeling in African countries. 

Sonja said that in addition to China, they have Argentina and Colombia in a South-to-South partnership to learn from each other and mitigate the effects of climate change.

She added that it is absolutely essential for Africa to have a seat on the table and to be included in these global climate change discussions because most of the attention is focused on developed countries, whereas the situation in many African countries is not well represented.

Zhu Yuhao is a post-doctoral fellow after completing his Ph.D. in Bio-Geo-Chemical Processes at ILRI jointly with the KIT-IFU climate research institute and University of Freiburg in Germany

A Chinese delegation led by their Minister of Environment, Huang Runqiu, is in Kenya for the inaugural Africa Climate Summit (ACS) kicking off today and which will be used as a platform to discuss green financing and debt, among other highlights.

Premised on driving green growth and climate finance solutions for Africa and the world, the summit comes at a time when a significant drop in Chinese financing shows a different model from over two decades ago when project funding was flowing in the billions. The current decline is attributable to China’s “Small or Beautiful” approach, especially in the Belt and Road Initiative and also the challenges some recipient countries have with their debt management.

Despite this shift, Joseph Ng’ang’a, the CEO of the ACS says that the summit is an opportune time for African leaders to start addressing infrastructure funding including for electricity generation and access gaps.

“(Most) Africans don't have access to electricity which means there's a huge deficit. Those who don't have electricity actually use money and resources for alternative sources of energy, which means that it's not that they can't afford it but that it's not available to them,” notes Ng’ang’a.

He adds that there's a real market for Africans who need electricity and that the new small or beautiful approach by China could do a lot more for countries struggling to provide universal access to electricity to their populations.

“It's actually a good thing for Africa. If you look at the renewable projects in terms of capital and size on the continent, you will have one big Turkana wind project but for every such development, you (can) have 10 small hydro projects and 10 solar projects. The rationale for that as you probably very well know is that our grid is relatively limited, our consumption isn’t that high because we don't do a lot of heating and cooling, air conditioning and so on and so $50 million dollars, if you use an average of $3 million per 3-megawatt development, those are 15-megawatt projects. And that is not a challenge at all because a lot of power projects are in that range,” notes Ng’ang’a.

He adds that such projects are localized which then eliminates the need to build hundreds of kilometers of transmission lines which come with a lot of cost only to deliver 50 kilowatt hours or even an energy minimum of 200 or 300 kilowatt hours per capita. 

“This small and beautiful (approach) is indeed beautiful because it lends itself to the types of the majority of the projects that we see on the continent. But it's not always just about the ticket size. It's more important to ask if that $50 million dollars power project is affordable. Is it a long tenor, 20, 30 years? Does it provide for the project preparation part which is a couple million dollars? So it's not just the quantum of money, it's also what type of money it is,” Ng’ang’a says. 

Combined with the tremendous renewable energy resources from hydropower to solar to wind and geothermal, the CEO says that to meet this market’s needs, there has to be a connection between the demand and the potential to generate electricity. But with the debt situation hanging over some African countries’ development plans, the summit is also seeking multilateral development banks, trade finance intermediaries, and China in particular, to have a real conversation around limiting the cost of borrowing, extending the tenor of the loans and providing grace periods so African countries can build the foundation with which they're able to service these loans. 

“The fiscal headroom for our African countries needs to be rethought. They (African countries) have very limited space for borrowing and even when they can borrow, they struggle to make their payments. So at the summit, we are hoping to discuss how we create the right financing environment for African countries so they can develop,” Ng’ang’a adds.

Ng’ang’a who is the Vice President of Africa at the Global Energy Alliance for People and Planet (GEAPP) says that leaders need to think about debt restructuring, liquidity measures and also talk about credit ratings because if a country has a poor rating, its cost of borrowing goes up yet the credit rating is not really representative of an African country.

One of the expected outcomes of the summit which ends on Wednesday is the African Leaders Nairobi Declaration on a green growth and climate finance agenda and solutions for Africa and the world as well as a roadmap for implementation of the key declarations.

Russian President Vladimir Putin will reportedly travel to China to attend the Belt and Road Forum in October, his first overseas visit since the ICC issued a warrant for his arrest on alleged war crimes. The Kremlin confirmed the Russian leader will not travel to India for next month's G20 leaders summit. (BLOOMBERG)

Representatives and senior commanders from nearly 50 African countries are in Beijing this week for the third China-Africa Peace and Security forum that begins on Monday. Defense Minister Li Shangfu's keynote address will focus on integrating Africa into China's new Global Security Initiative. (CHINA MILITARY)

Nicaraguan beef will soon appear on supermarket shelves in China following the signing of the first-ever beef export agreement. The deal is widely seen as a precursor to a new free trade agreement that negotiators from both countries finalized last month but that has still to be ratified. Nicaragua re-established diplomatic ties with China in 2021. (100 NOTICIAS -- in Spanish)

Afghanistan is reportedly working with Huawei to install a wide-ranging surveillance system across the country in an effort to identify and target insurgents or terrorism activities, according to a person familiar with the discussions. Company officials purportedly reached a verbal agreement with the Interior Ministry on August 14th, the source said. (BLOOMBERG)

An unidentified Chinese company has been awarded a $2.7 billion contract to build the second phase of Iran’s Imam Khomeini International Airport, according to Saeed Chalandari, the CEO of the company managing the airport. He said Iran will pay for the project via a barter agreement using crude oil. (MEHR)

The Chinese battery metals firms Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt and PT Huali Nickel Indonesia signed a deal with the Brazilian mining company Vale to build a nickel processing plant in Indonesia. The plant will produce 60,000 tons of nickel and 5,000 tons of cobalt annually for use in battery manufacturing. It will start production in 2027. (CHINA DAILY)

China and Singapore will conduct joint military exercises from late August to mid-September, according to a statement by the Chinese Defense Ministry. The annual drills will take place in Singapore and will include close combat and hostage rescue exercises. (REUTERS)

IMF head Kristalina Georgieva will arrive in Beijing on Wednesday for three days of talks with senior Chinese leaders ahead of the upcoming G20 summit in New Delhi. Stepping upChina's participation in the IMF's Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable is expected to be high on the agenda. (BLOOMBERG)

U.S. President Joe Biden will make a one-day visit to Vietnam on September 10th on his way back from the G20 summit in India. It's widely expected the two countries will use the visit to upgrade diplomatic ties to a "strategic partnership." China on Tuesday downplayed the importance of the visit. (THE DIPLOMAT)

The Chinese Foreign Ministry issued a brief statement saying they’re closely following the reported coup in Gabon. Spokesperson Wang Wenbin said: “We call on relevant sides in the country to proceed from the fundamental interests of the nation and the people, resolve differences peacefully through dialogue, restore order at an early date, ensure the personal safety of President Ali Bongo Ondimba, and safeguard the larger interests of national peace, stability and development.” China has been a long-time ally of the Bongo dynasty. Bongo met with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a visit to Beijing in April. (CHINESE FOREIGN MINISTRY)

Kyrgyzstan will reportedly ban the Chinese-owned social media platform TikTok. Government officials accused the short-form video app of “causing addiction” among children and ruining their mental health. There has been no comment from TikTok or its parent company Bytedance. Meanwhile, TikTok is reportedly planning to set up content moderation facilities and a regional headquarters in Kenya amid calls for a similar ban there. (THE GUARDIAN NIGERIA)

There is $178 billion in untapped trade potential between China and the MENAT (Middle East, North Africa and Türkiye) region between now and 2027, according to a new report by China’s HSBC bank. The report is another indicator of the growing power of post-oil investment between the regions. Mark Wang, President and CEO of HSBC said: “There’s synergy between the two emerging markets with Chinese corporates bringing in expertise in digital innovation, climate tech and new business models, as MENAT's investor base, demand for renewables and a growing young population offer essential capital and market opportunities.” (ZAWYA)

Indonesian police arrested 88 Chinese citizens on suspicion of being involved in cross-border internet scams following a tip-off from Chinese authorities.

They are accused of running so-called romance scams, where they establish long-term online relationships with netizens in China in order to convince them to transfer money and other assets. The group (which includes five women) was reportedly operating from a shopfront close to the border with Singapore.

These schemes are also known as ‘pig-butchering scams’ because the victims are cultivated over time, similar to a piglet being raised for slaughter. Police spokespeople said none of the suspects spoke Indonesian, and they are suspected of focusing on victims in China.

Similar scams have been showing up all over Southeast Asia, and Chinese authorities frequently work with local authorities to try and crack down on them. However, two recent investigative reports highlight that these scams are increasingly reshaping border economies.

High levels of unemployment in China are fueling them, with some Chinese citizens paying a premium for permits to enter Myanmar, Cambodia, and other poorer parts of Southeast Asia to set up scamming operations there. These are then frequently run by trafficked Chinese who work as indentured labor.

The Economy of a Cross-Border Scam

LOCAL COMPLICITY: Local armed military factions in the Golden Triangle formed by Northern Thailand, Myanmar, and Laos are deeply involved in the scam economy, which grew from local warlords’ earlier dominance of the opium trade. Local law authorities also tacitly allow the scammers, partly because they have become so central to the local economy. One town in northern Myanmar only has about 4,000 residents and a single strip of shops but is home to an estimated 100,000 telecom scam workers.

UNWILLING SCAMMERS: The cryptocurrency exchange Binance recently released data showing that pig-butchering scams have increased by 100% from 2022 to now. Many of the Chinese people involved are lured with promises of conventional jobs, only to be trapped into slave labor where they have to run scams aimed at fellow Chinese. They also face violence and sexual exploitation. While the Chinese government has announced greater cooperation with authorities in countries like Cambodia, these initiatives are frequently thwarted by corrupt local officials.

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? These scam economies don’t only foster broader criminality and ruin the lives of both the scammers and the scammed. They are also becoming increasingly more sophisticated and aimed at Chinese overseas students and non-Chinese populations abroad.

SUGGESTED READING:

• The Paper: The Dark Reality of Telecom Fraud in North Myanmar
• MIT Technology Review: The Involuntary Criminals Behind Pig-Butchering Scams by Zeyi Yang