Analysis
Diverse voices, unique insights on key issues shaping China’s engagement throughout the Global South.
analysis
The Three Faces of Chinese Investment in Southeast Asia: SOEs, POEs, and MNEs
In 2025, China remained a top-three source of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Southeast Asia, following only the U.S. and intra-Southeast Asian flows. While much of the investment falls under the umbrella of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), it is important to distinguish between broad ...
analysis
With Pakistan and Afghanistan at War, China Confronts a Strategic Moment on Its Frontier
Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif declared "open war" against Afghanistan on Friday amid a surge of fighting between the two South Asian neighbors. Pakistan said it's retaliating against Afghanistan for a series of attacks, including a suicide bombing in early February that killed ...
Post-Uprising Polls Won’t Shake Nepal’s Delicate India-China Balance
By Aishwarya Kumar Nepal votes next week for the first time since deadly anti-corruption protests toppled the government, but analysts say any winner will likely maintain the delicate diplomatic balance between its two giant neighbors, India and China. ...
Congo’s Cobalt Curbs Expose China’s Critical Metals Weak Spot
By Andy Home China's dominance of critical mineral supply chains is not as absolute as it may appear. Cobalt is a case in point. China accounted for ...
The Paradox of Panama’s “Rule of Law”: Hutchison Ports vs. Minera Panama
In the wake of the forced transition at the ports of Balboa and Cristóbal, Panamanian Foreign Minister Javier Martínez-Acha sent a clear message to the international community: Panama is a country of legal certainty, and the government is "simply respecting a Supreme Court ruling" regarding the ouster ...
U.S. and China Hold the Keys to Containing a Mideast Oil Shock
By Ron Bousso A serious military confrontation between the U.S. and Iran could trigger a major disruption in Middle East oil supplies. The vast oil reserves the U.S. and China hold could prove critical in containing it. For now, uncertainty dominates ...
The Rise of “Bully Diplomacy” in Critical Minerals
If U.S. President Donald Trump’s cold, realpolitik, interest-driven critical minerals diplomacy is unlikely to fundamentally shake China’s dominance of the global critical minerals supply chain, it may nevertheless begin to shift certain fault lines and push Chinese interests into spaces where they had previously gone largely unchallenged. ...
How China Plans to Dominate Global Trade Long After Trump
By Joe Cash China sees an opening to turn President Donald Trump's tariffs to its advantage by reshaping global trade in ways that would insulate its $19 trillion economy from U.S. pressure for the foreseeable future.
China Remains Undeterred in the Grey Zone
By Sam Mullins The final days of 2025 saw Taiwan surrounded by Chinese warships, aircraft and coast guard vessels in what the Chinese Ministry of Defense described as a serious warning to ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces and foreign interference. ...
Can Chinese Agricultural Tech Work for Kenya?
By Duncan Mboyah Many Kenyan farmers work fertile land close to fast-growing urban markets. But they are struggling as rainfall gets less predictable, heat stress rises and pests and diseases spread. For smallholders, a single ...
China E-Mobility Weekly Digest: Africa’s EV Minerals Processing Shifts Manufacturing as Electricity Revenues Grow
This is a free preview of the Africa EVs Weekly Digest, part of the new CGSP Intelligence service. From Kenya’s green number plates to South Africa’s industrial incentives, a number of African governments are moving beyond small electric vehicle ...
Foreign Cars Flow to Russia Through China, Skirting Ukraine War Sanctions
By Alessandro Parodi, Gleb Stolyarov and Alexandr Reshetnikov Tens of thousands of cars are being exported from China to Russia under gray-market schemes that often circumvent Western and Asian government sanctions and automakers' commitments to exit the Russian market, according to ...
As U.S. Engagement Wavers, Southeast Asia Finds a New Climate Partner in China
As aid from the United States and other Western countries dwindles and global trade tensions rise, Southeast Asia’s urgent need for green energy is finding a ready banker and builder in China. Experts caution that this shift is reshaping the region’s economic and strategic landscape at the ...
Looking Beyond “Useful Africa” at the Mining Indaba
With U.S.-South Africa ties in the deep freeze, it was notable to see the sheer size of the U.S. delegation sent to this week’s Mining Indaba in Cape Town – one of the most prominent industry gatherings and one of the few where the Global South ...
Panama and the New U.S. Strategy to Counter China in Latin America
The Panama Supreme Court’s ruling against Hutchison Ports in late January was not merely an isolated legal event; it was the successful proof-of-concept for a new geopolitical weapon. What appears on the surface to be a dispute over contracts from ...
Taiwan Leader Warns Countries in Region ‘Next’ in Case of China Attack: AFP Interview
Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te warned that countries in the region would be China's next targets should Beijing seize the democratic island, as he insisted that Taiwan must dramatically shore up its defences. Speaking to AFP in his first interview with a ...
Can Africa Win as the West and China Scramble for Minerals?
By Clyde Russell Two multi-billion-dollar rail projects in Africa. One headed west, the other east. One backed by Western countries, the other by China. Both are aiming to ship vast quantities of critical minerals. Welcome to the new scramble for Africa. ...
The China Factor Missing From the Headlines at This Year’s African Mining Indaba
The mining industry’s most important annual gathering is underway this week in Cape Town, South Africa, where corporate and government elites are convening for what is typically a routine, largely unremarkable business conference. This year is a little different.
U.S. Moves to Counter China in Bangladesh, Plans to Pitch Defense Alternatives
By Krishna N. Das The United States is concerned about China's expanding presence in South Asia and is planning to offer Bangladesh’s next government U.S. and allied defense systems as alternatives to Chinese hardware, Washington's ambassador to Dhaka told Reuters.
China E-Mobility Weekly Digest: Africa’s EV Future at Risk as Oil, Policy and Power Clash
This is a free preview of the Africa EVs Weekly Digest, part of the new CGSP Intelligence service. This week brings new insights into why an electric vehicle revolution is a non-starter in many African countries. Key factors include ...
China Set to Widen Footprint in Bangladesh as India’s Ties Decline
By Tora Agarwala China’s influence in Bangladesh, boosted by the 2024 ouster of New Delhi‑aligned leader Sheikh Hasina, is likely to deepen after this week's election, although politicians and analysts say India is too large a neighbor to be sidelined completely.
China’s Export Surge to Africa in 2025 Complicates Efforts to Rebalance Trade
In 2025, trade between China and Africa reached $348 billion, a 17.7% increase from 2024. As in the previous year, this growth was largely driven by rising Chinese exports, which amounted to $225 billion, compared to $123 billion in imports from the African continent.
U.S. Challenges Chinese Control in Race for African Minerals
By Maxwell Akalaare Adombila The U.S. is using offtake deals and state-backed funding to compete in the short term with China in securing supplies of African copper, cobalt and other critical minerals, diplomats, executives and analysts said ahead of this week's Indaba.
Bolivia Wants Closer U.S. Ties, Without Alienating China: Minister
By José Arturo Cárdenas Bolivia's new government plans to restore full diplomatic ties with Washington "as soon as possible," after a nearly two-decade rupture, Foreign Minister Fernando Aramayo told AFP. Relations between Washington and the ...
Q&A: Can the U.S. Displace China From South America?
In a global scenario marked by strategic competition between the world's two largest powers, Latin America's role has ceased to be peripheral and has become a critical terrain of influence. As Washington watches with growing concern Beijing's advance on vital infrastructure—from ...
Q&A: The “Guanxi”: An Anthropological Look at the Chinese Businessman in Peru
The recent scandal dubbed “ Chifagate ” and the revelations about the so-called “ Dragon Club ” have once again put the relationship between Peruvian political power and Asian investments under scrutiny. However, beyond the anecdote of a dinner at a chifa or ...
China’s Global Power Looks Different When Its Partners Are in Crisis
By Felix Brender 王哲謙 On January 3, 2026, U.S. forces executed a dramatic operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, abruptly removing the central figure of a regime that had been one of Beijing’s most emblematic strategic partners in Latin ...
What to Watch After China’s Strategic Setback at the Panama Canal
On Thursday last week, Panama’s Supreme Court delivered a ruling that was felt in some of the highest offices in both Beijing and Washington. The court declared that the concession granting control of the Balboa and Cristobal ports to Panama Ports Company, a subsidiary of Hong Kong-based ...
China’s Push for Low-Carbon Metals Is Forcing a Reckoning in Indonesia’s Nickel Boom
By Muyi Yang and Dody Setiawan At the G20 Summit in late 2025, China unveiled the International Economic and Trade Cooperation Initiative on Green Mining and Minerals. While broader geopolitical headlines overshadowed this news, it carries crucial implications.
China E-Mobility Weekly Digest: More Speed, Less Policymaking Will Power African Countries’ Electric Vehicle Dreams
This is a free preview of the upcoming Africa EVs Weekly Digest, part of the new CGSP Intelligence service. This week, we continue looking at the alternatives African countries have for electric vehicle (EV) manufacturing. Across the continent, employment ...
China’s Technology Push Finds New Ground in Indonesia’s Health and Connectivity Gaps
One of the important developments in China-Indonesia relations last month is the strengthening of cooperation in the digital health and technology sectors. These are crucial sectors where Indonesia has struggled to translate policy goals into nationwide coverage. Telkomsat, one of Indonesia's ...
As China Builds the Grid, Laos’s Power Ambitions Enter a New Phase
2026 marks a strategic turning point for Laos in its ambition to become the “Battery of Southeast Asia”, with two mega power transmission projects advancing this year. On the first day of January 2026, the 230 kV Thavieng-Mahaxay transmission line ...
After a Panama Port Decision, Washington Faces Hard Choices on China and the Canal
U.S. government officials celebrated last week's decision by the Supreme Court in Panama to nullify the contract for a Hong Kong-based company to operate ports along the country's two coasts, leading into the canal zone. A lot of people erroneously thought ...
Implications of Panama Court Ruling to Quash CK Hutchison Port Concessions
By Clare Jim, Kane Wu and Scott Murdoch Panama's Supreme Court annulled last week CK Hutchison's contract to operate two Panama Canal ports at the heart of a $23-billion deal to sell the Hong Kong conglomerate's global port assets.
U.S. Defense Strategy Signals a Harder Line on China in Latin America
In January, the Trump Administration published its 2026 National Defense Strategy (NDS). The document, which was released without fanfare, confirms that a strategic shift is well underway in the Western Hemisphere, and Latin American and Caribbean states are on the receiving end of that shift.
China and the Libyan Crisis: Maintaining a Foot in the Door in a Changing Region
By Bianca Pasquier and Leonardo Bruni, On November 12, 2025, the Chinese embassy in Tripoli officially reopened after more than a decade. However, the return of Chinese diplomatic staff to the Libyan capital passed largely unnoticed, attracting scant media interest ...
Confusing Developments in “Development”
This week I’m in Brussels, where I took part in a workshop on how the EU should shape its development strategy in response to China’s global influence. I have joked in the past that it feels like I’ve attended this same ...
China Emerges as Top Development Partner for Small Island States, ODI Survey Finds
As climate shocks intensify and aid from legacy donors comes under pressure, China is increasingly filling the development gap for Small Island Developing States (SIDS), a group of climate-vulnerable economies spread across the Caribbean, Pacific, Indian Ocean, and South China Sea, according to a new report from ...
New Data Reveals China’s Complex Role in Africa’s Debt Portfolio
China was once Africa's largest bilateral creditor, but now, as many of those loans come due, it's become the continent's largest bilateral collector, according to a new report by the UK-based NGO ONE Data. The so-called "Great Reversal" that ONE Data identified highlights how ...
Scandal Tests Peru’s China Ties as U.S. Scrutiny Intensifies
By Marco Aquino A scandal surrounding undisclosed meetings with a Chinese businessman by Peru's acting president has shone an unflattering spotlight on the key copper exporter's ties to China at a moment of heightened U.S. scrutiny of Beijing's footprint in the region. ...
China E-Mobility Weekly Digest: BYD Enters Tanzania as CKD Assembly Remains Africa’s Most Practical Manufacturing Option
This is a free preview of the upcoming Africa EVs Weekly Digest, part of the new CGSP Intelligence service. Many African countries are talking up local electric vehicle (EV) manufacturing, but the lack of infrastructure and reliable energy remains ...
Fearing China Clash, Japan Asks Fishermen to Avoid Flashpoint Islands
By Mariko Katsumura, Tim Kelly, Nobuhiro Kubo and John Geddie Hitoshi Nakama, 76, sees himself as a frontline defender of Japan's claims to disputed islands in the East China Sea, where he regularly evades Chinese coast guard ships to harvest the bountiful waters. ...
China and ASEAN Enter a Pivotal Year, With Trade, AI and the South China Sea in Play
As 2026 begins, the China-ASEAN relationship is evolving across several fronts, including trade, Artificial Intelligence, infrastructure development, and South China Sea. With the ASEAN's chairmanship held by the Philippines, the year opens with distinct political and institutional dynamics for the region. ...
The Fraying Story of the “West” and What’s Next
Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney’s speech in Davos marked a new era in how the West talks about itself. One could say he was the first Global North leader to frame the rules-based international order (RIP) in Global South terms: ...
In 2026 China–India Ties Will Primarily Be Shaped at Home, Not by the U.S.
By Saniya Kulkarni and Lukas Fiala The tentative normalisation of Sino-Indian relations over the last year has sometimes been attributed to President Trump’s heavy-handed approach to trade policy, especially his "liberation day" tariff announcements. Going into 2026, however, it remains the ...
China’s Evolving Lending Footprint in Africa: Selective Engagement and Strategic Retooling
By Mengdi Yue and Yiyuan Qi Chinese loans to Africa are down once again, but not out. Boston University Global Development Policy Center’s newly updated Chinese Loans to Africa (CLA) Database shows that, despite a slight rise in 2023, Chinese ...
Photo Essay: How TikTok Turned Jakarta’s Traders and Buskers Into a New Working Class
“Darling, the mahogany denim is on display number six, my love. Please check it out, darling,” Nova shouts energetically. She is a TikTok Live host in central Jakarta's Tanah Abang Block A, standing confidently in front of two smartphones. Dressed in ...
Myth and Misperception: Does China Always Bully Its Neighbors Over Territorial Disputes?
In this edition of M&M, I want to discuss how China handled its territorial disputes with Vietnam. This is an important topic considering China and Vietnam currently have disputes over the Paracel and Spratly Islands, and that they once fought a war over the disputed land border ...
China E-Mobility Weekly Digest: EV Manufacturing Funding Grows as Competition Heats up in African Countries
This is a free preview of the upcoming Africa EVs Weekly Digest, part of the new CGSP Intelligence service. Chinese partnerships and investments continue to buoy African countries’ automaking profiles and expand the continent’s mobility solutions. ...
Pakistan’s Defense Boom Puts Chinese-Designed Jets on the Global Market
By Saad Sayeed and Ariba Shahid Pakistan's defense manufacturing industry is running red hot since its jets, drones and missiles earned the coveted 'combat tested' tag in a conflict with India last year, attracting a slew of interested buyers.
Kenya Secures Duty-Free Access to China. Its Farmers May Still Struggle to Cash In
There's been a lot of discussion in Kenya over the weekend about how the country can best take advantage of a preliminary trade agreement signed late last week that grants 98.2% of Kenyan exports duty-free access to the Chinese market.
How Is China Viewing U.S. Actions in Venezuela – an Affront, an Opportunity, or a Blueprint?
By Kerry E. Ratigan China’s public response to the U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro played out in a fairly predictable way, with condemnation of a “brazen” act of force against a sovereign nation and accusation of Washington acting like a “world ...
Trump’s ‘Donroe Doctrine’ Targets China, U.S. Oil Firms Could Pay the Price: Bousso
By Ron Bousso President Donald Trump plans to import previously sanctioned Venezuelan oil into the U.S., tearing up the global energy playbook and underscoring the seriousness of the administration’s ambition to dominate the Western Hemisphere.
As Iran Faces Its Gravest Crisis in Decades, China Stays on the Sidelines
China’s relationship with the Middle East is a perennial topic in discussions about China’s role in the Global South, especially at moments of crisis. Now, despite its publicly touted close relationship, as the Islamic Republic faces perhaps the most serious crisis in its 45 year history, including ...
Why Greenland is the New Front in the U.S.–China Resource Rivalry
By Lukas Fiala After a showcase of U.S. military might in Venezuela, the longstanding back-and-forth about a potential U.S. intervention in Greenland continues apace. With President Trump announcing earlier this week that the U.S. would acquire Greenland “one way or ...
Russia, China Unlikely to Back Iran Against U.S. Military Threats
By Fabien Zamora with Ludovic Ehret in Beijing While Russia and China are ready to back protest-rocked Iran under threat by U.S. President Donald Trump, that support would diminish in the face of U.S. military action, experts told AFP.
China-Southeast Asia in 2026 Depends on Beijing’s Ability to Rise to the Occasion
Southeast Asia’s relationship with China is set to face a convergence of diplomatic, political, and societal pressures in 2026. While Beijing remains one of the region’s most influential actors, its expanding economic footprint intersects with governance challenges and public discontent in several countries.
China’s 2026 Challenge in Latin America and the Caribbean
2025 was a rather tumultuous year for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Donald Trump’s return to the White House exacerbated geopolitical dynamics in the region, particularly in the realm of the U.S.-China strategic competition. From tariffs to claims that China ...
China-Central Asia in 2026: From Resource Access to Structured Interdependence
2025 marked an important inflection point in China-Central Asia relations. Not because China’s presence in the region was new, since Beijing has been a significant economic actor for more than a decade, but because the composition and structure of that engagement began to change in more visible ...
APEC Offers China a Chance to Revitalize Integration
By Christopher Findlay and Wenxiao Wang As the chair of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) in 2026, China has a chance to revitalize Asia-Pacific integration around services and the digital economy. With services accounting for most output and employment across ...
Vietnam’s VinFast and the “China Plus One” Paradox
By Zhang Shiyao VinFast, Vietnam's largest electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer, wrapped up 2025 with strong momentum: its domestic deliveries more than doubled in 2025, reaching 170,000 units - roughly one third of the country’s total car sales. With new ...
2026: Africa-China Relations in a World Shaped by North-South Geopolitics
When talking about Africa–China relations, one is always moving along a sliding scale. There are myriad interactions with Chinese entities that concern only individual African countries, segueing into trends affecting the whole continent and sliding further into global dynamics shaping the developing world, of which Africa is ...
China’s Clean Tech Charm Offensive Wins Global South Hearts and Minds
By Chris Aylett and Bernice Lee Air travellers making the descent into Islamabad, Nairobi, or São Paulo may be struck by the sight of solar panels scattered liberally over the rooftops. Regular visitors to Kathmandu, Nepal’s capital city, will probably have ...
China: The Indispensable Partner of Maduro’s Venezuela
By Peter Catterall China was the dominant buyer of Venezuelan oil under deposed president Nicolas Maduro, the fulcrum of a symbiotic partnership that propped up the South American economy and gave Beijing regional influence. But ...
China’s Rhetoric Is Clear on Venezuela. Latin America’s Response Is Not.
While the dust from the U.S. military operation in Caracas to oust Nicolás Maduro has yet to settle, early Chinese reactions already offer useful food for thought. The views expressed across Latin America, largely absent from both Chinese and Western commentary, also help contextualize how China’s relationship ...
China E-Mobility Weekly Digest: Driving Kenya’s First Locally Built Electric Car as BYD Dethrones Tesla and China’s ICE & EV Dual Strategy
This is a free preview of the upcoming Africa EVs Weekly Digest, part of the new CGSP Intelligence service. African countries are embarking on an unprecedented bout of techno-social evolution brought about by Chinese electric vehicle (EV) technologies that ...
Survey: Indonesians See China as an Opportunity, Not an Ally or Threat
Global debates about China’s rise often revolve around military flashpoints or ideological rivalry. Far less attention is paid to how societies in influential middle powers actually perceive Beijing’s growing role. Indonesia—home to more than 270 million people, Southeast Asia’s largest economy, and a country with a long ...
CGSP Take: How Does the Venezuela Crisis Affect China’s Relationship with the Global South?
By Cobus van Staden, CGSP Head of Research, China has sharply criticized the Trump administration’s incursion into Venezuela and its detention of President Nicolás Maduro. During his regular press conference on Monday, Foreign Ministry spokesperson ...
Q&A: Maduro’s Fall Tests China’s Influence in Washington’s Backyard
The United States government's rationale for last Friday's military incursion into Venezuela to detain President Nicolás Maduro has evolved over the months from combating narco-terrorism to asserting control over the country's vast oil reserves. But amid the varying justifications for the intervention was a concern about China's ...
U.S. Strike in Venezuela Intensifies Chinese Media Debate Over Taiwan
Washington’s intervention in Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolás Maduro have sent shockwaves across Chinese social media, triggering surprise, anger, and unease. Beyond that, a more intriguing conversation emerged - Taiwan. U.S. forces carried out the lightning strike on Caracas ...
After Venezuela, China Is Watching How Washington Defines Its Sphere of Influence
By Shaun Tandon With a major attack to arrest Venezuela's leader, President Donald Trump is showing that the United States will impose its will in its neighborhood -- and the lesson may not be lost on Russia and China.
Why Honduras’ Presidential Election Matters for China and Taiwan
More than three weeks after elections were held, Honduras still does not have a new president. Nasry Asfura of the conservative National Party leads by a narrow margin, with roughly 43,000 more votes than his closest competitor, Salvador Nasralla of the Liberal Party. ...
Panama’s Diplomatic Tightrope: One China, Beijing’s Red Lines, and the Politics of a Taiwan Trip
On November 13, 2025, amid reports of a possible visit by members of Panama’s National Assembly to Taiwan, the president of Panama, José Raúl Mulino tweeted that such a trip did not have the support or approval of his government. The tweet triggered a chain of ...
Disputed Myanmar Election Wins China’s Vote of Confidence
Myanmar's military-run elections are being pilloried abroad and shunned at home, but neighboring China has emerged as an enthusiastic backer of the pariah poll. International monitors have dismissed the vote starting Sunday as a charade to rebrand Myanmar's military rule since ...
Cameroon Goes All in on Chinese Safe Cities, but at What Cost?
In 2014, the Cameroonian government launched the “Cameroon Intelligent City Project,” where 70 Huawei-supplied CCTV cameras were installed across six localities. The project expanded through several phases, with some sources noting that the government hopes to install 24,000 cameras nationwide. By December 2025, government borrowing for these initiatives had ...
China’s Rare Earths El Dorado Gives Strategic Edge
By Peter Catterall Buried in the reddish soil of southern China lies latent power: one of the largest clusters of critical rare earths is mined around the clock by a secretive, heavily guarded industry. The ...
China-Africa and the Cost of Unused Talent
When it comes to the China-Africa story, most people first think about infrastructure. Those who follow it more closely might think of diplomacy. But China-Africa relations is also a story about hundreds, maybe even thousands, of African students trained in China through scholarships and bilateral partnerships.
Taiwan Eyes Fresh Diplomatic Ties With Honduras
By Allison Jackson and Amber Wang with Joan Suazo in Tegucigalpa Taiwanese seafood trader Jay Yen used to import 2,000 tonnes of shrimp a year from Honduras before the Central American country cut diplomatic ties with the democratic island in 2023. ...
China E-Mobility Weekly Digest: China Engineering Africa’s EV Future From Assembly Kits to Full Factories
This is a free preview of the upcoming Africa EVs Weekly Digest, part of the new CGSP Intelligence service. For many African countries to achieve some level of local manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs), completely knocked down (CKD) and ...
Shaping Tomorrow: How China and Africa Are Negotiating a Shared Future
By Gaia Guatri Lagos—At 7:30 a.m., the light rail hums above the gridlock, gliding through the haze of exhaust and early heat. Built by the China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation (CCECC) and financed through Chinese loans, the sleek blue carriages slice ...
Constructive Responses to Net Negative Transfers: What Next for China’s Financial Relationship With Low-Income Countries
By Rebecca Ray In the last few years, China’s net debt transfers (new disbursements minus repayments) to low-income countries have turned negative. This trend means that poor countries are now repaying China more each year for past years’ lending than they ...
An “Emotional Shift” in Israel? Rapprochement with Taipei during the Gaza War
By Amanda Chen On October 28, Taiwanese leader Lai Ching-te (賴清德) made headlines when he publicly referred to Israel as a “valuable model” for Taiwan’s defence. He delivered the remark during a dinner in Taiwan organised by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee ...
A Senior Xi Adviser Visits Indonesia, Bringing Beijing’s Long Game Into Focus
One of China’s highest-ranking political figures, and among President Xi Jinping’s closest ideological advisers, visited Jakarta last week, in a move that underscored Beijing’s deepening interest in its relationship with Indonesia. Wang Huning, one of China’s most influential political ...
What the U.S. Strategy Debate Gets Wrong About China
By Lukas Fiala Over the last week, all of us have pored over the latest U.S. National Security Strategy. As many have pointed out, one of the most striking developments is the shift towards recognising the Western Hemisphere as a primary ...
Myth and Misperception: Does Shared Communism Tie Vietnam to China?
In this edition of Myth and Misperception, I want to take a deep dive into one of the most contentious debates on Vietnam’s foreign policy: what role does ideology play in the country’s foreign policy? As a communist party-state, Vietnam officially adheres to Marxism-Leninism in every ...
China’s Digital Payment Push Gains Ground in Uzbekistan
Competition among Chinese companies in Central Asia is not limited to the electric vehicle sector or the renewable energy industry. It is equally intense in the field of digital payments, where tech giants Alipay and WeChat Pay together handle more than ninety percent of mobile transactions ...
How the U.S. Aims to Seize Control of Critical Congolese Minerals and Curb Chinese Expansion
By signing the strategic partnership agreement with the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the United States achieved two key objectives in its critical minerals strategy: first, securing preferential access to copper, cobalt, zinc, gold, and other minerals considered strategic; and second, establishing a regulatory framework ...
Chile’s Election Puts China’s Lithium Ambitions to the Test
The Lithium Triangle is one of the most important geostrategic sectors in the Latin American landscape. Spanning through Chile, Argentina and Bolivia, the Lithium Triangle is home to between 60 to 75% of the earth’s known lithium reserves and is the centerpiece of the global energy ...
As China Cracks Down on Ivory, Japan’s Open Market Becomes a Backdoor for Traffickers
At his store in Tokyo's ritzy Ginza district, Hajime Sasaki displays a disparate array of wares, from chopsticks to Buddha statues -- including many made of ivory. International trade in elephant ivory is illegal, but Japan hosts one of the world's ...
China E-Mobility Weekly Digest: Kenya Builds EVs as China Floods Markets With Gasoline Vehicles
This is a free preview of the upcoming Africa EVs Weekly Digest, part of the new CGSP Intelligence service. Africa is emerging as a critical, increasingly complex space in global electric-vehicle strategy. No longer viewed solely as a source ...
Why China Is Watching Trump’s Venezuela Campaign Closely
By Tom Harper Donald Trump’s campaign against Venezuela escalated recently with the U.S. president announcing that the country’s airspace should be considered “closed.” This is a move that has preceded U.S. military interventions in the past, perhaps most notably in Iraq ...
To Build a Kenyan EV, an Engineer Turns to China… for Know-How, Not Cars
On the outskirts of Nairobi’s industrial zone, Engineer Tadesse Tessema, a soft-spoken power electronics graduate who built Ethiopia’s first car assembly plant nearly two decades ago, is once again trying to do something no one has done in East Africa: create a locally manufactured electric vehicle — ...
The Perception Problem: Why Central Asians Remain Skeptical of Chinese Investment
Over the past decade, China has poured billions into the Central Asian countries, financing infrastructure, renewable energy, agriculture, and digital technologies, while presenting itself as a reliable development partner. Central Asian governments, eager for investment and diversification, have embraced China as a strategic ally in trade and ...
The G20 Summit and the Half-Life of a Joke
When it was announced in 2023 that the African Union would become a full member of the G20, I darkly joked on a podcast that the AU’s entry into the body could very well mark the moment the G20 lost its status as one of the most ...
China-Central Asia Weekly News: New Seaport Development, BYD Battery Localization in Uzbekistan, and Healthcare Cooperation
This is a free preview of the upcoming Critical Minerals Weekly Digest, part of the new CGSP Intelligence service launching in 2026. Chinese engagement with Central Asia is advancing through a combination of transport infrastructure development, automotive industry expansion, and medical ...
In Congo’s Cobalt Belt, a Chinese Miner’s Waste Leaves Villages Poisoned and Furious
By Camille Lafont Carrying her sore-pocked daughter across her decaying field, Helene Mvubu says she is one of thousands to have fallen victim to the toxic waste defiling the Democratic Republic of Congo's mining capital. ...
China and LAC at Odds: Blue Diplomacy in the Era of IUU Fishing
In China’s engagement with the Global South, climate diplomacy is one area where Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries play a particularly decisive role. The Global South is set to be disproportionately affected by climate change, yet its governments must negotiate solutions with the world’s largest emitters—China ...
How Green Hydrogen Is Opening a New Chapter in China-Latin America Relations
In a global context marked by climate urgency and transition to cleaner energy, green hydrogen—a fuel produced by splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen using renewable energy—has emerged as a strategic vector for decarbonization. Unlike solar or wind power, which ...
China E-Mobility Weekly Digest: Africa Edges Into the EV Era With Universal Charging Hubs And More Funding
This is a free preview of the upcoming Africa EVs Weekly Digest, part of the new CGSP Intelligence service. Many African nations find themselves in a paradoxical moment regarding electric mobility. They sit atop some of the world’s richest ...
From Geoeconomics to a Chinese Diplomatic Shift on the Western Sahara? Moroccan Press Coverage of FM Bourita’s Visit to Beijing
Disclaimer: The terminology and analysis presented here do not necessarily reflect the personal views of the author or the official stance of the ChinaMed Project, T.wai. For the sake of consistency and clarity, this piece employs the commonly recognized term “Western Sahara.”
A Taliban security personnel operating an anti-aircraft gun keeps watch for Pakistani airstrikes near the Torkham border crossing between Afghanistan and Pakistan in the Nangarhar province on February 27, 2026 following overnight cross-border fighting between the two countries. Photo by AIMAL ZAHIR / AFP
Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif declared "open war" against Afghanistan on Friday amid a surge of fighting between the two South Asian neighbors. Pakistan said it's retaliating against Afghanistan for a series of attacks, including a suicide bombing in early February that killed at least 36 people ...
U.S. and China Hold the Keys to Containing a Mideast Oil Shock
By Ron Bousso A serious military confrontation between the U.S. and Iran could trigger a major disruption in Middle East oil supplies. The vast oil reserves the U.S. and China hold could prove critical in containing it. For now, uncertainty dominates ...
The Rise of “Bully Diplomacy” in Critical Minerals
If U.S. President Donald Trump’s cold, realpolitik, interest-driven critical minerals diplomacy is unlikely to fundamentally shake China’s dominance of the global critical minerals supply chain, it may nevertheless begin to shift certain fault lines and push Chinese interests into spaces where they had previously gone largely unchallenged. ...
How China Plans to Dominate Global Trade Long After Trump
By Joe Cash China sees an opening to turn President Donald Trump's tariffs to its advantage by reshaping global trade in ways that would insulate its $19 trillion economy from U.S. pressure for the foreseeable future.
China Remains Undeterred in the Grey Zone
By Sam Mullins The final days of 2025 saw Taiwan surrounded by Chinese warships, aircraft and coast guard vessels in what the Chinese Ministry of Defense described as a serious warning to ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces and foreign interference. ...
Can Chinese Agricultural Tech Work for Kenya?
By Duncan Mboyah Many Kenyan farmers work fertile land close to fast-growing urban markets. But they are struggling as rainfall gets less predictable, heat stress rises and pests and diseases spread. For smallholders, a single ...
China E-Mobility Weekly Digest: Africa’s EV Minerals Processing Shifts Manufacturing as Electricity Revenues Grow
This is a free preview of the Africa EVs Weekly Digest, part of the new CGSP Intelligence service. From Kenya’s green number plates to South Africa’s industrial incentives, a number of African governments are moving beyond small electric vehicle ...
Foreign Cars Flow to Russia Through China, Skirting Ukraine War Sanctions
By Alessandro Parodi, Gleb Stolyarov and Alexandr Reshetnikov Tens of thousands of cars are being exported from China to Russia under gray-market schemes that often circumvent Western and Asian government sanctions and automakers' commitments to exit the Russian market, according to ...
As U.S. Engagement Wavers, Southeast Asia Finds a New Climate Partner in China
As aid from the United States and other Western countries dwindles and global trade tensions rise, Southeast Asia’s urgent need for green energy is finding a ready banker and builder in China. Experts caution that this shift is reshaping the region’s economic and strategic landscape at the ...
Looking Beyond “Useful Africa” at the Mining Indaba
With U.S.-South Africa ties in the deep freeze, it was notable to see the sheer size of the U.S. delegation sent to this week’s Mining Indaba in Cape Town – one of the most prominent industry gatherings and one of the few where the Global South ...
Panama and the New U.S. Strategy to Counter China in Latin America
The Panama Supreme Court’s ruling against Hutchison Ports in late January was not merely an isolated legal event; it was the successful proof-of-concept for a new geopolitical weapon. What appears on the surface to be a dispute over contracts from ...
Taiwan Leader Warns Countries in Region ‘Next’ in Case of China Attack: AFP Interview
Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te warned that countries in the region would be China's next targets should Beijing seize the democratic island, as he insisted that Taiwan must dramatically shore up its defences. Speaking to AFP in his first interview with a ...
Can Africa Win as the West and China Scramble for Minerals?
By Clyde Russell Two multi-billion-dollar rail projects in Africa. One headed west, the other east. One backed by Western countries, the other by China. Both are aiming to ship vast quantities of critical minerals. Welcome to the new scramble for Africa. ...