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Kenya's public employees are threatening to go on strike unless the government pays their overdue salaries.

Civil servants did not get paid last month due to a financial crisis brought on by the country's ballooning debt that's now fast closing in on the legal limit of 10 trillion shillings or $75 billion.

But despite the prospect of a national strike and even social unrest, the government will not default on its financial obligations to both domestic and international creditors, according to presidential advisor and prominent economist David Ndii.

Why is Kenya's Debt Crisis Accelerating?

• BORROWING BINGE: The government is in such a hole now that it needs to borrow just to stay afloat. In just the past four months, Kenya took on $3.7 billion of additional debt, making it much more difficult now to meet its payment obligations. (THE STANDARD)

• DEBT SERVICING: China is Kenya's largest bilateral creditor and refused to extend debt repayment deferrals last year on the nearly $6 billion of loans mostly used to pay for the construction of the SGR. Most of those are denominated in dollars which also contributes to a forex shortage and a weakening of the shilling that ultimately pushes up the cost of servicing the debt. (@RAMAH_NYANG)

• TRADE DEFICIT: Kenya's trade deficit with China widened last year to $3.62 billion despite efforts by both countries to narrow the gap. While trade deficits are not inherently bad, they can be for highly-indebted countries like Kenya, which have to use their shrinking stock of dollars to buy imports which can devalue the shilling and spark inflation. (BUSINESS DAILY)

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? China has repeatedly said that it plays "a constructive role" in helping African countries to manage the worsening debt crises, but in Kenya, the China Exim Bank has steadfastly refused the government's appeals for repayment flexibility.

SUGGESTED READING:

• Business Daily: Kenya’s external debt balloons by Sh344bn on weak shilling by Dominic Omondi
• Business Daily: Kenya-China trade gap grows despite diplomatic charm by Constant Munda

Pirates took command of a Chinese-operated oil tanker this week 300 kilometers off the coast of Ivory Coast in the Gulf of Guinea, according to a London-based risk management company.

Details about how many crew are being held captive and how many raiders were involved are unavailable. It's also not clear if the ship was staffed by Chinese nationals.

The incident comes amid heightened fears among Chinese expatriates in West Africa. In Nigeria, the Chinese embassy issued a new security advisory for its citizens and companies operating in Kaduna, Zamfara, Niger, Kogi and Abuja states to take precautions amid a surge of kidnappings.

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? The growing insecurity in West Africa will contribute to worsening concerns in other Chinese communities across the continent following the brutal killing of nine Chinese miners in the Central African Republic last month. Chinese embassies in South Africa and DRC have also issued similar security advisories in recent weeks.

SUGGESTED READING:

• South China Morning Post: Chinese in Nigeria urged to strengthen security after latest kidnappings by Cyril Ip
• Associated Press: Risk firm: Pirates board Chinese-run ship in Gulf of Guinea by Sam Mednick

The United States and the Philippines agreed to a new long-term plan that will pave the way for a major increase in U.S. security assistance to the Southeast Asian country over the next five to ten years.

The deal was finalized on Tuesday at the State Department in Washington, D.C., where the top diplomatic and defense officials from both countries met as part of the "2+2 Ministerial Dialogue."

The new agreement is specifically targeted at confronting China's "provocative activities in the South China Sea" that has led to a rapid deterioration of ties between Manila and Beijing in recent months.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry has not commented yet on Tuesday's meeting in Washington, but scholars interviewed by the nationalist CPC-run tabloid Global Times warned that if the U.S. deploys "offensive weapons" to the Philippines, then it would provoke an automatic escalation from China to respond with "its own aircraft carriers and air power to protect its strategic interests" in the region.'

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. came into office last year as something of a wild card on where he would fall on the U.S.-China spectrum, but it appears now that a series of recent maritime incidents between the Chinese Coast Guard and Filipino fishing vessels persuaded him to lean much more heavily on the U.S. for security assistance.

SUGGESTED READING:

• Reuters: US, Philippines agree to complete road map for security assistance for next 5-10 years by Idrees Ali and David Brunnstrom 
• Global Times: The United States and the Philippines restart the "2+2" dialogue. Philippine experts: The United States' top priority is not to protect the Philippines, it is promoting war (in Chinese)

Lithium production in Africa is expected to jump fourfold in the next ten years as demand surges for the metal needed to build batteries for electric vehicles.

While that may produce another resource boom in some countries, it also presents unique challenges, given that access to critical resources is now among the most fiercely contested areas in the escalating China-U.S. duel.

But if African countries want to fully maximize the benefit of this valuable commodity, they're going to have to find ways to move up the value chain, according to Georgetown University Africa scholar Ken Opalo.

In a recent article for his Africanist Perspective newsletter, Opalo said the challenge facing African governments will be compounded by the worsening rivalry between the two major powers:

There is also a geopolitical angle involved. China commands nearly 60% of the global lithium refining capacity. Like in many other domains, China is far ahead of its Western competitors in securing lithium deals in the region, with African mines being part of the supply chains that feed Chinese refiners and stockpiles.

Western countries (through both private and state-backed firms) are racing to try and catch up, though. In an age of de-coupling and securitization of everything under the sun, the United States and its Western allies fears that China might use its dominance in the lithium market to strategically ration access.

As such, African policymakers must understand that investments in the sector will likely not necessarily follow market logics — we are already seeing a rush to acquire and hoard mining and refining capacity for national security reasons. Nobody appears to conform to standard economic models of optimal exploration and consumption strategies.

Read the full article on Ken Opalo's Substack newsletter "An Africanist Perspective"

Brazilian President Luiz Inàcio Lula da Silva had hoped to arrive in Beijing on Tuesday with a plan to present to Chinese President Xi Jinping that would end the conflict in Ukraine.

Lula dispatched a special envoy to Kyiv last week to present the idea of ceding Crimea to Russia in exchange for a settlement. But that was a non-starter with the Ukrainians, who politely dismissed the proposition on Friday:

“There is no legal, political or moral reason that would justify giving up a single centimeter of Ukrainian territory,” Ukrainian Spokesperson Oleg Nikolenko wrote on Facebook, who also said, “the efforts of the Brazilian president to find a way to stop Russian aggression” were appreciated.

Even though Xi and Lula probably won't be able to unveil any kind of breakthrough regarding the war in Ukraine during this week's visit, the trip is nonetheless widely-expected to be hugely important for the two countries.

A number of the bilateral announcements that were supposed to have been unveiled last month when Lula was originally scheduled to visit China but had to delay due to illness have already been implemented.

They include the appointment of former Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff to lead the Shanghai-based New Development Bank, a new Sino-Brazilian yuan settlement deal, and the resumption of beef sales that had been halted due to an isolated outbreak of mad cow disease.

But the president is expected to be accompanied by a large delegation of at least 200 business and political leaders who will be on hand to sign more than a dozen agreements in agriculture, science and education, among other sectors.

Top Agenda Items for Lula's Talks With Xi

• GEOPOLITICS: There's been speculation Brazil will become the newest member of China's Belt and Road Initiative on this trip. But even if that doesn't happen, watch for the two leaders to talk up the BRICS group and for Lula to endorse China's alternate global governance initiatives, including the GDI and GSI that were ostensibly created to serve as alternatives to the U.S.-European-led international system. (RESPONSIBLE STATECRAFT)

• TRADE: The two countries did a record $172 billion of trade in 2022, a figure both leaders are hoping to push even higher this year. China is particularly keen to expand its imports of Brazilian commodities so as to reduce its current dependence on U.S. corn, soybeans and meat among other commodities. Brazil, in turn, is looking to expand sales of its most lucrative exports that include oil and iron ore. (SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST)

• INVESTMENT: With U.S. and European restrictions against Chinese tech companies limiting access to markets in the Global North, large Global South economies like Brazil are now more important than ever to firms like Huawei, Didi and ZTE as new sources of growth. Also, Chinese social media apps like TikTok and Kuaishou have both expanded considerably in Brazil in recent years without friction. (GLOBAL TIMES)

Footnote: it's important to note that the Chinese Foreign Ministry on Friday refused to confirm Lula's arrival which has been widely reported in the Brazilian and international media. This is quite common, though, as the ministry often likes to wait until the very last minute to announce high-profile visits.

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT?Xi is undoubtedly looking to extend his current diplomatic winning streak to the Americas. He's going to want to demonstrate to Washington that while the U.S. may have the upper hand militarily, China is building a formidable network of diplomatic partnerships in Europe, the Mideast, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, Russia and now the Americas that Xi hopes will make it impossible for the U.S. to mobilize a meaningful coalition.

SUGGESTED READING:

• Mercopress: Brazilian President's trip to China rescheduled for April 11
• Deutsche Welle: China eyes closer ties with Brazil by William Yang

The smiles and awkward handshake among the foreign ministers from China, Saudi Arabia and Iran last week in Beijing that finalized a once-improbable reconciliation between the two Persian Gulf rivals triggered another wave of analysis by scholars around the world about the significance of China's role as the new mediator of choice.

Predictably, Chinese academics expressed near-euphoric levels of confidence that the deal is proof Beijing is now mature enough as a global actor to be a legitimate alternative to the U.S. 

Meantime, scholars in the U.S. and Gulf region are far more circumspect, urging patience and arguing that it will take time to determine if China's efforts will pay off in a region long known for its unpredictability:

• CREDIBLE MEDIATOR: "The gathering of the Saudi and Iranian foreign ministers in China and the announcement of the formal restoration of diplomatic relations between the two countries is in fact a concretization of the road map set out in the Beijing agreement. "This also reflects the deepening recognition of the Saudi-Iranian concept and practice of great power diplomacy with Chinese characteristics, as both countries regard China as a trustworthy third party" -- Niu Song, Institute of Middle East Studies at Shanghai International Studies University (YICAI -- in Chinese)

• NO PAX SINICA: "The deal may even exacerbate the broader geopolitical tensions Beijing likely aims to calm. Iran may perceive the agreement as a tacit endorsement of its current nuclear policy, matching diplomatic intransigence with unprecedented technical advances" -- Henry Rome & Grant Rumley, fellows at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (ASIA TIMES)

• U.S. SHOULDN'T WORRY: "The Americans are scrambling to prove that the “pivot to Asia” would not mean diminished influence in the Gulf. But Washington should not obsess too much about the region’s relationship with China, as it remains quite superficial. Instead, it should be more concerned about Israel’s engagement with Beijing and the destabilizing role it is playing in the region" -- Sultan Barakat, York University & Lakshmi Venugopal Menon, Qatar University (AL JAZEERA)

• CHINA'S PRACTICAL DIPLOMACY: "The fact that the Saudi and Iranian sides met again in Beijing demonstrates, on the one hand, that the roadmap and timetable of the Beijing agreement are practical and feasible, and that the commitments made by the parties have been implemented, building up the foundation of trust. "On the other hand, it shows that the Saudi and Iranian sides recognize the important role played by China and are willing to continue to promote the normalization of relations under the continued mediation of the Chinese side" -- Li Zixin, Institute of Developing Countries of the China Institute of International Studies (CHINA NEWS NETWORK -- in Chinese)

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? While the debate in China is 100% on script (China is great!!!), the discussion about the implications of the deal in the U.S. is surprisingly nuanced. Of course, the U.S. right-wing media is melting down by suggesting that this proves Biden is a foreign policy failure, but more centrist analysts and the White House itself are encouraging everyone to not overreact. 

SUGGESTED READING:

• The Guardian: China enters riskier space by positioning itself as diplomatic alternative to US by Patrick Wintour
• Bloomberg: China Can’t Charm the World on the Cheap by Minxin Pei

The Tunisian government angrily pushed back against both the International Monetary Fund and the European Union over how to resolve the North African country's twin economic and political crises.

President Kais Saied bluntly told the IMF on Friday that he would not comply with the fund's "diktats" that called on the government to cut subsidies and implement other economic reforms he said would prompt widespread social unrest.

Earlier, the foreign ministry also said EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell's concerns were "overblown" that an economic collapse in Tunisia would trigger a mass migration to Europe.

Now, as it becomes increasingly isolated from the West, Tunis hopes that joining the BRICS could help. Presidential Spokesperson Mahmoud bin Mabrouk said on Saturday that the government regards the group as “a political, economic and financial alternative."

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? The fact that Mabrouk framed BRICS membership as an "alternative" to the Western-led system is notable because it plays right into China's narrative that a new, non-U.S./EU-led international architecture is needed.

SUGGESTED READING:

• Asharq Al-Awsat: Tunisia Plans to Join BRICS Nations
• Arab News: Hopes fade for IMF bailout of Tunisia

A Chinese surveillance ship, which can track rocket launches, has docked in South Africa’s Durban harbor. The Yuan Wang 5 previously drew security complaints from India when it docked in Sri Lanka. Its stay in South Africa comes barely two months after Pretoria upset Western powers for its joint naval exercises with China and Russia. (BLOOMBERG)

Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen arrived in Belize on Sunday, the second leg of a three-day tour to two of the island's last remaining diplomatic allies in Central America. In Guatemala, President Alejandro Giammattei said ties with the island were "unbreakable." (ASSOCIATED PRESS)

Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong wrapped up a week-long visit to China on Friday by meeting President Xi Jinping. In a veiled swipe at the U.S., Xi re-emphasized his oft-stated Asia for Asians stance and said the two countries should jointly "reject hegemony and bullying." (NEW STRAITS TIMES)

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibharim returned home this weekend from a four-nation China tour with $38 billion of new investment commitments. Prior to his departure on Saturday, Anwar also met with Chinese President Xi Jinping for talks that focused mostly on fostering closer economic ties. (STRAITS TIMES)

The governments of Belize and St. Kitts and Nevis pledged ongoing cooperation with Taiwan during President Tsai Ing-wen visit to the Latin America-Caribbean region. Tsai will make a second stop-over in the U.S. on her way back, during which she'll meet with U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. (REUTERS)

Malaysia's Transport Minister Loke Siew Fook rejected claims that China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) poses a debt trap. “Any government or country that signs up for the BRI should know what they are signing up for. This cannot be seen or viewed as a ‘debt trap’,” he told Global Times. (FREE MALAYSIA TODAY)

A plane laden with 100 tons of consumer products took off on Monday on a new e-commerce-focused air route between the Chinese manufacturing hub of Shenzhen and Sao Paulo, Brazil. The twice-weekly cargo-only route was partly launched by Cainiao, the logistics arm of the Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba. (XINHUA)

There's mounting speculation that the foreign ministers of Iran and Saudi Arabia will meet for talks on Thursday in Beijing, according to official sources quoted by the Arabic-language news site Jadeh Iran. If this does happen, it would be their third meeting in four weeks. (JADEH IRAN)

The Indian government flatly rejected China's move to change 11 place names along their disputed border in Arunachal Pradesh near southern Tibet. A spokesperson for the external affairs ministry in New Delhi said "invented names" will not change India's sovereignty over the region. (THE HINDU)

Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang spoke by phone on Tuesday with his Vietnamese counterpart Phạm Minh Chính in what's part of a major diplomatic push by Beijing among countries in Southeast Asia. Last week, the leaders of both Singapore and Malaysia visited Beijing for separate talks with President Xi Jinping. (XINHUA)

COSCO Shipping Offshore Engineering, a Chinese shipbuilder, is building the world’s biggest offshore oil and gas production and storage ship for the Brazilian state oil company Petrobras. The P-82 Floating Production Storing and Offloading vessel will be able to produce 225,000 barrels of oil per day and store more than 1.6 million. (OFFSHORE ENERGY)

80 Chinese nationals have been evacuated from the Central African Republic via a special Hainan Airlines flight. This follows the recent, as yet unsolved, massacre of nine people at a Chinese-run gold mine outside of the capital Bangui. (AFRICA INTELLIGENCE)

When Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim went to Malaysia's parliament this week to brief lawmakers on his recent trip to China, he emphasized his discussions with President Xi Jinping about transitioning away from relying solely on the U.S. dollar for trade.

“There is no reason for Malaysia to continue depending on the dollar,” Anwar told lawmakers about his conversations with Xi to create an Asian Monetary Fund that would elevate the role of the Chinese currency.

Xi was undoubtedly pleased to hear Anwar's enthusiasm to ditch the dollar, given the Chinese president's drive this year to expand the use of the RMB to buy oil, food, and other commodities from trading partners throughout the Global South.

Whereas just a few years ago when money was plentiful in the era of near-zero interest rates, very few countries took the Chinese seriously when they brought up the yuan issue. But now that developing countries are getting hammered by the strong dollar at the expense of their own currencies, they're taking a second look.

This explains, in part, why there have been several deals in recent weeks between China and its trading partners using yuan instead of dollars.

But even though there is a flurry of headlines about this trend, it's still important to note that the yuan remains a fringe player in the global currency market, accounting for around just 7% of all transactions. That said, that figure is almost double what it was 2019 and is expected to grow considerably over the next few years.

Where China is Seeking to Expand the Use of the Yuan:

• BRAZIL: Central banks in both countries signed a deal in February that would add the yuan to the basket of currencies Brazil uses for cross-border transactions. Brazil became the 29th country to agree to use the RMB. (YICAI)

• ARGENTINA: Argentina was among a number of Global South countries to receive huge injections of Chinese RMB as part of currency swap deals intended to bolster depleted foreign currency reserves. (REUTERS)

• SAUDI ARABIA: While Riyadh has no plans to ditch the dollar soon, the Kingdom did take its first steps in March experimenting with the Chinese currency when the Saudi National Bank signed a deal with the China Eximbank to increase the use of yuan in bilateral trade. (GLOBAL TIMES)

• UNITED ARAB EMIRATES: Chinese and French companies signed a first-of-its-kind deal in March to use yuan for the purchase of 65,000 tons of Emirati liquified natural gas. (RADIO FRANCE INTERNATIONALE)

• RUSSIA: China’s yuan has replaced the U.S. dollar as the most traded currency in Russia, a year after the invasion of Ukraine led to a slew of Western sanctions against Moscow. (BLOOMBERG)

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? China's supporters at home and abroad rejoice at every announcement of a new yuan deal as evidence of the decline of U.S. power. But experts warn that it's a mistake to conflate the yuan issue with geopolitics. After all, nothing is stopping any country today from abandoning the dollar and using only the yuan. They don't because it's not in their financial interest to do so. 

SUGGESTED READING:

• @Brad_Setser: Petro-yuan faces one small problem: neither the GCC countries nor China needs financing from each other
• Nikkei Asia: What's in store for yuan internationalization in 2023? by Wang Xiaoqing and Zhang Ziyu

A unit of China's state-run CGTN television broadcaster repackaged misinformation about a purported U.S. response to China's currency exchange deal with Brazil and then shared it on social media, where it was re-posted by a Chinese ambassador in Africa.

The original Tweet, which was not created by CGTN's Frontline, included a fictional quote by White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre which included a threat of "consequences" to countries that stop using the U.S. dollar to conduct international trade.

After the quote began to circulate widely, U.S.-based fact-checkers determined that it was fake after failing to find a single reference to it in any of the White House statements, releases and press briefings.

Read more about this piece of misinformation on the Lead Stories website.

Footnote: after 24 hours up on Twitter, Frontline eventually deleted the post.

China is standing off against six other countries, including Kenya, Türkiye and Panama to lead the London-based International Maritime Organization, a United Nations specialized agency.

Panama was widely thought to be the front-runner until Finland and China submitted candidates right before the March 31 deadline.

The election to decide who will be the IMO's next Secretary-General will take place on July 18th.

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT: China has long prioritized securing leadership positions at these obscure yet important UN agencies as a way to exert influence on international standards. Today, Chinese officials lead both the International Telecommunications Union and the Food and Agriculture Organization.

The IMO is increasingly seen as a strategically important agency given its role in governing issues related to decarbonization, maritime supply chains and transit through newly-opened Arctic routes.

SUGGESTED READING:

• Lloyd's List: IMO leadership race wide open as China and Finland vie for power by Richard Meade
• Ships & Ports: China, Kenya, 5 others jostle for IMO Secretary-General job

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris is back in Washington, D.C., after wrapping up a week-long, three-nation tour of sub-Saharan Africa over the weekend.

Before she left, Harris held a press conference on Friday with President Haikinde Hichilema, where she gently prodded China to do more to restart Lusaka's stalled debt restructuring process.

"We are continuing to reiterate our call on official bilateral creditors to provide meaningful debt reduction to Zambia," she told reporters in response to a direct question about what the U.S. was doing to pressure China on the debt issue.

The Vice President had an easy opening with that question to hammer the Chinese about accusations of predatory lending, the lack of transparency in their loans and other oft-used Washington critiques of Chinese policies in Africa.

But she didn't, likely because her hosts didn't want to hear it.

In both Ghana and Zambia, presidents were uncharacteristically blunt in telling the Vice President that African countries (including their own) are going to work with the Chinese and that is a reality that the U.S. is going to have to accept:

🇿🇲 ZAMBIA: "The U.S.-Zambia relationships exists in the operating environment where others countries also exist. The contextualization that if the U.S. and Zambia share a lot in common, strong bilateral relationship, then they're doing things against China. [That's] actually wrong. Completely wrong. I have said before: when I'm in Washington, I'm not against Beijing. Equally, when I'm in Beijing, I'm not against Washington" -- President Haikinde Hichilema (ZNBC)

🇬🇭 GHANA: "There may be an obsession in America about the Chinese activities on the continent but there is no such obsession here. China is one of many countries with who Ghana is engaged with in the world. [The U.S.] is one of them. Virtually all of the countries in the world are friends with Ghana" -- President Nana Akufo-Addo (SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST)

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? The pushback from both presidents highlights the growing divide between the U.S. and Global South governments that do not share Washington's worries about China. It's notable that the leaders were not responding to Harris directly but rather to U.S. journalists who tried to frame her visit as part of the U.S.-China rivalry.

SUGGESTED READING:

• South China Morning Post: US Vice-President Kamala Harris is in Africa, so why does China keep coming up? by Jevans Nyabiage
• Associated Press: China’s global influence looms over Harris trip to Africa by Chris Megerian, Cara Anna and Andrew Meldrum

Nigeria's Vice President Yemi Osinbajo pushed back against Western criticisms of Chinese engagement in Africa, saying concerns over predatory lending are "an overreaction."

The Vice President spoke at King's College in London, where he also reminded the audience that "the history of loans from Western institutions is not great. The memory of the destructive conditionalities of the Bretton Woods loans are still fresh and the debris is everywhere."

He also implied that U.S. skepticism about the Chinese presence in Africa is misplaced, given that the United States lags far behind in both trade and investment and that African governments are "rightly unapologetic about their close ties with China."

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Osinbajo's speech highlights how African leaders are increasingly confident to push back against Western narratives they find objectionable - including at such a prominent center of Western influence as King's College. While the VP's remarks were widely covered in the Nigerian media, there wasn't a single story about it in the UK, US or European media.

SUGGESTED READING AND VIEWING:

• Prof Yemi Osinbajo's YouTube Channel: "Africa Can Prosper In An Increasingly Complex World" - Lecture Delivered At King's College, London
• The Cable: Osinbajo: Chinese loans reduced Africa’s dependency on IMF, World Bank by Wasilat Azeez

China's ambassador to the DR Congo, Zhu Jing, hosted a briefing at the embassy for Chinese companies operating in the country about the deteriorating security conditions.

Representatives from at least 50 Chinese companies attended the session last week that also included an update from the Hong Kong-based private security contractor Frontier Services Group on how Chinese personnel can better protect themselves against a rise in kidnapping and assault.

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT: Friday's meeting in Kinshasa comes amid a sense of heightened insecurity among Chinese expatriates in Africa following last month's brutal attack in the Central African Republic that killed 9 Chinese miners. Plus, Chinese embassies in both Nigeria and South Africa have issued new security advisories about the increased risk of attack and abduction targeting Chinese nationals.

SUGGESTED READING:

• Congo Today: The embassy in Congo (Kinshasa) held a safety meeting for Chinese-funded enterprises (in Chinese)
• Foreign Policy: Beijing Doesn’t Know Who to Blame for Gold Mine Murders by Arthur Kaufman

Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong embarked on a week-long trip to China on Monday that will include meetings with both President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang. The visit marks the Singaporean leader's first visit to China since the COVID-19 pandemic. (STRAITS TIMES)

Ghanaian Finance Minister Ken Ofori-Atta said he had "positive and encouraging meetings" during his visit last week to Beijing, where he sought Chinese debt relief assistance. The finance minister did not specify whether or how Chinese creditors would restructure $1.7 billion of loans to Ghanaian borrowers. (JOY NEWS)

Southeast Asian countries are beating India in capturing a greater share of manufacturing business that's leaving China, according to a report submitted to lawmakers in New Delhi. ASEAN countries have lower taxes, more free trade agreements and cheaper labor costs than India, said the report. (THE HINDU)

Vietnam deployed a tracking ship to monitor a Chinese Coast Guard vessel that sailed through Hanoi's territorial waters over the weekend. The Chinese Coast Guard ship crossed two Russian-operated oil blocks that are under development with Vietnam and well within its exclusive economic zone. (REUTERS)

Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil giant Aramco announced a pair of multibillion deals that will significantly expand its presence in the Chinese petrochemical business. On Monday, the company said it will spend $3.6 billion to acquire a 10% share of one of China's largest refineries. Over the weekend, Aramco build a new refinery in northeast China. (ASSOCIATED PRESS)

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said Mexico will not follow the U.S. if Washington bans the hugely popular Chinese social video app Tik Tok. The President vowed "complete freedom" when asked about the platform during his regular morning news conference on Monday. (REUTERS)

Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke by phone with Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in what was billed as a follow-up on the restoration of diplomatic ties that Beijing brokered between Riyadh and Tehran earlier this month.  Tuesday's call also followed a pair of multibillion deals announced this week for Saudi Arabia to invest in China's petrochemical sector. (REUTERS)

Malaysian leader Anwar Ibrahim arrived in Hainan on Wednesday for his first visit to China as prime minister. Anwar is attending the Bo’ao Forum for Asia conference on the southern Chinese island and will then head to Beijing for meetings with both President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang. (THE STAR)

Chinese coal imports surged 81% y-o-y in the first quarter as both businesses and utilities stocked up in anticipation of increased energy use throughout the year. Russia and Indonesia are among China's main coal suppliers while Australian shipments are slowly starting to rebound after several years of sanctions. (REUTERS)

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is expected to reschedule his visit to China to April 11th, according to his press secretary Paulo Pimenta. Lula was supposed to have gone to Beijing last weekend but the trip was postponed after he was admitted to the hospital with a case of pneumonia. (REUTERS)

Saudi Arabia agreed to join the Chinese-initiated Shanghai Cooperation Organization on Wednesday as a "dialogue partner" in what is the latest sign of increasingly close ties between Riyadh and Beijing. The Kingdom's decision to join the SCO follows several weeks of major Sino-Saudi diplomatic and corporate deals. (AL JAZEERA)

The U.S.' top military officer warned of an escalating arms race in Asia in response to China's drive to "become the regional hegemon." Mark Milley, chairman of the Joints Chiefs of Staff, told the Senate Armed Services Committee on Wednesday that "countries [in the western Pacific] are arming themselves up." (VOICE OF AMERICA)

Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong made a brief stopover in China's southern Guandong province on Wednesday during his six-day visit to China.

Lee paid a courtesy call to the province's top official, Communist Party Secretary Huang Kunming, to discuss deeper economic integration between the Lion City and what's known as the "Greater Bay Area" that encompasses Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau -- a burgeoning regional economic powerhouse with a combined $2 trillion.

On Thursday, Lee will fly to the southern island of Hainan to deliver an address at the Bo'ao Forum for Asia before heading up to Beijing to meet with President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang.

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? If Guangdong province was a country, its $1.8 trillion GDP would make it the 10th largest economy in the world -- just behind Canada. So, it shouldn't be a surprise that Lee spent as much time as he did fostering ties with the southern industrial powerhouse that's critical to the future of Singapore's larger trade relationship with China.

SUGGESTED READING:

• The Straits Times: Potential for Singapore and Guangdong to deepen cooperation: PM Lee by Elizabeth Law
• Channel News Asia: Singapore's PM Lee meets Guangdong official Huang Kunming on third day of China visit by Koh Wan Ting