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The Chinese sci-fi spectacle, The Wandering Earth II, is slowly turning into a global blockbuster.

The film debuted to enthusiastic audiences in Egypt after getting similarly positive responses in other African countries, including South Africa, Zambia and Mozambique.

Given that China and the Mideast are two of the three primary obsessions among U.S.-based national security think tanks (Russia being the third, of course), it shouldn't be a huge surprise that analysts reacted very fast with their assessment of Friday's rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

The Atlantic Council was the first to respond (and the most prolific), publishing insights from 14 different analysts within 24 hours of the deal's announcement. But over the course of the weekend, the debate shifted to Twitter, where it became almost impossible to keep up with the pace of commentary from scholars and analysts in the U.S. and around the world.

Highlights from U.S. Think Tank Analysis of the Iran-Saudi Arabia Deal

• NEW PLAYER IN MIDEAST DIPLOMACY: "This engagement between Saudi Arabia and Iran may lead to something positive, and it may fizzle. It’s too early to proclaim it anything other than a good first step. It is, however, significant as China’s first major foray into regional diplomacy" -- Jonathan Fulton, Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council (ATLANTIC COUNCIL)

• AMERICA, DON'T FRET: "There will be some who see Friday’s news as diminishing the perception of U.S. power, but Americans should welcome this agreement. It shows that China can be a constructive player in a crisis-ridden region at a time when much of the rest of the world is preoccupied by the war in Ukraine" -- Barbara Slavin, Distinguished Fellow at the Stimson Center (STIMSON CENTER)

• CHINA ⬆️, UNITED STATES ⬇️: "The not-so-subtle message that China is sending is that while the United States is the preponderant military power in the Gulf, China is a powerful and rising diplomatic presence. This adds to a perception of Chinese power and influence around the world, and it contributes to a narrative of a shrinking U.S. global presence" -- Jon B. Alterman, Director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)

• CONFRONTATION VS. STABILITY: "China's role in mediating the restoration of Iran-Saudi diplomatic ties is also a significant development in the Middle East. At a time when the US has reportedly greenlighted Israel to increase confrontation with Iran, China is advancing increased regional stability" -- Sina Toosi, Senior Fellow at the Center for International Policy (@SINATOOSI)

• WHAT BEIJING WANTS: "What’s in it for Beijing? Simply put China wants stability in the Middle East to ensure the free flow of energy from the region. De-escalation between two regional powers and major energy producers is critical to those objectives" -- Karim Sadjadpour, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (@KSADJAPOUR)

ADDITIONAL SUGGESTED READING:

• The Atlantic Council: Experts react: Iran and Saudi Arabia just agreed to restore relations, with help from China. Here’s what that means for the Middle East and the world.
• The Atlantic Council: Full throttle in neutral: China’s new security architecture for the Middle East by Tuvia Gering

While the bulk of the discussion in the news media and on Twitter about the resumption of diplomatic ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia focused on the magnitude of the deal -- both in terms of the impact on Mideast politics and because of China's surprise role as mediator -- some commentators also urged everyone to step back, take a breath and reserve judgement.

First, they noted that the deal was negotiated by Iranian and Saudi Arabian security officials, not the countries' diplomats. This should prompt consideration as to whether key internal stakeholders on both sides are truly ready to put aside decades of mistrust.

The other important point that several analysts highlighted was Yemen. The war there will show whether the Iranians and Saudi Arabians are ready to stop backing their proxy forces and bring an end to the near-decade-long conflict.

Key Highlights of Analysts and Journalists' Skeptical Assessment of the Iran-Saudi Arabia Détente

• WHAT HAPPENS IF IT DOESN'T WORK OUT? "Today’s announcement on Iran-Saudi deal being portrayed as a ‘big win’ for China: its significant, but remains to be seen if it’s a win. If China is really the guarantor of the deal, what happens if the restoration of ties doesn’t go as planned? How will China police it?" -- Dina Esfandiary, Senior Advisor MENA for the International Crisis Group (@DESFANDIARY)

• CHINA NOW OWNS A BIG A PROBLEM: "Given [the] hard realities, the agreement announced in Beijing is unlikely to greatly alter the risks of conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia. But it does give China ownership of a problem nobody else wants. Good luck with that" -- Bobby Ghosh, Columnist at Bloomberg Opinion (BLOOMBERG)

• LET'S SEE WHAT HAPPENS IN YEMEN: "There's still plenty of problems with Iran. I think that the essentials of the rivalry are still there. Cease-fire in Yemen, but no settlement, right? To me, the real signal of a Saudi-Iranian rapprochement will be a settlement. If the Chinese could do that, then, you know, Nobel Prizes all around" -- Professor Gregory Gause, Head of the International Affairs Department at the Bush School of Government at the University of Texas (NATIONAL PUBLIC RADIO)

• NEGOTIATED BY SECURITY OFFICIALS, NOT DIPLOMATS: "The agreement is a “security deal” and has the blessing of leaders of both 🇮🇷and 🇸🇦: SL Ali Khamenei and King Salman (or MBS). The fact that Iranian and Saudi national security advisors -not diplomats- clinched the deal after 5-day intense talks shows they had to settle out persistent disputes" -- Fereshteh Sadeghi, Iranian journalist based in Tehran (@FRES_SADEGH)

Chinese Mideast specialists were quicker than usual in weighing in on Friday's Persian Gulf deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Broadly speaking, most scholars attributed China's success in finalizing the agreement to President Xi Jinping's commitment to "personal diplomacy" since 2014 and to the diplomatic opening created by the United States, which they largely believe has been steadily losing influence in the Mideast.

Key Highlights of Chinese Scholarly Reaction to the Iran-Saudi Arabia Deal

• CHINA'S "SPECIAL ADVANTAGE": "The reason for the resumption of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran is first and foremost their own realistic need and desire to cooperate. If there is no intrinsic motivation, external factors are hardly going to work. Also the two sides have been talking for a long time but still needed an extra boost. Because of its special advantage in the Middle East thanks to its good relations with both countries [China] was able to play an [important] role and pushed for reconciliation" -- Jin Canrong, Professor of International Relations at Renmin University (JIN CANRONG'S WEIBO)

• U.S. BECAME A COMPETITOR TO THE SAUDIS:  "Amid declining U.S. engagement in the Middle East, the desire for countries in the region to seek their own security and stability has gone up significantly. In the background of all this is the shale gas revolution in the United States. In the past, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia were complementary but beginning in 2010, the two countries' relationship gradually became more competitive as the U.S. grew into a major oil and gas exporter. Therefore, the willingness of the U.S. to provide stability to the Middle East gradually declined" -- Sun Suyuan, Associate Researcher at the Institute of International Relations and Regional Development at East China Normal University (SINA FINANCE)

• STILL A LOT OF WORK TO BE DONE: "It is one thing for China to host the talks, but it is another for China to help implement the signed agreement on time. What kind of guarantees will China provide if one of the parties does not respect the agreement? Frankly speaking, although Saudi Arabia and Iran have reached an agreement to normalize relations, the contradictions between the two countries are still clearly visible. Through the successful mediation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, to a certain extent, the outside world can change the inherent impression that China only or mainly focuses on economic issues in the Middle East and despises issues such as security." -- Fan Hongda, Professor at the Middle East Studies Institute at Shanghai International Studies University (IRAN DAILY)

• CHINA'S PERSONAL DIPLOMACY PAID OFF: “China has worked hard to promote security in the Middle East since 2014 when President Xi first proposed a new concept of common, comprehensive, cooperative, and sustainable security. The fact that Saudi and Iranian delegations came to Beijing for talks demonstrates China's sincerity and a vote of confidence [in its abilities]. [The pact also] serves as an effective illustration of the Global Security Initiative in action. The fact that archrivals such as Saudi Arabia and Iran were able to beat their swords into plowshares [铸剑为犁] thanks to China's mediation fully demonstrates the GSI's lofty vision, which can serve as a compass and a roadmap for calming conflicts and resolving contradictions [worldwide]"  -- Ding Long, Professor at Shanghai International Studies University (GLOBAL TIMES via The Discourse Power newsletter)

• THE NEW "BEIJING CONSENSUS": “What astonished people around the world was that the Middle East has traditionally been dominated by the US or Russia, not China. It was the U.S. that would facilitate or back Middle East peace initiatives, such as the 1978 Camp David peace agreement between Egypt and Israel brokered by President Jimmy Carter and the 1993 Oslo Accords between Palestine and Israel brokered by President Bill Clinton. “This occasion could serve as a model for Beijing's effective mediation of significant regional crises and lead to the emergence of a "Beijing Consensus" [北京模式 lit. “Beijing Model”]" -- Ma Xiaolin, Director of Zhejiang University's Institute for Studies on the Mediterranean Rim (CHINA DAILY via The Discourse Power newsletter)

ADDITIONAL SUGGESTED READING:

• The Paper: Grand Diplomacy｜Saudi-Iran "Beijing Reconciliation": The Victory of Peace and the Demonstration of China's Role by Zhu Zhengyong and Yu Xiaoqing (in Chinese)
• Beijing Daily: Wu Sike, former Chinese ambassador to Saudi Arabia: The resumption of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Saudi Arabia conforms to the general trend, and China's efforts will pay off for a long time (in Chinese)

There wasn't a huge response on Chinese social media to the news that Beijing facilitated the restoration of diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran given that it's a pretty esoteric topic for most people. 

Nonetheless, there was some discussion on more internationally-focused Weibo channels like Sina Military. Reactions tended to swing between nationalist pride and suspicion that the U.S. will somehow find a way to mess it all up.

A lot of commentators also framed the deal in business rather than political terms, seeing it as an opportunity for all sides to make money:

WIN-WIN:

• “How nice to make money together”（一起赚钱多好）
• “High emotional intelligence: making money together and developing together” （高情商：一起赚钱一起发展）

PROUD OF CHINA:

• “Ah, not bad, the rabbit is the master of peace.”(哎哟，不错嘛，我兔才是和平大师)
• “The king's way is to make a thousand years of grudges die with a smile; the hegemony is to make brothers and sisters also turn against each other. We can see immediately which is good and which is bad! (王道，就是能让千年恩怨一笑泯恩仇；霸道，就是让手足兄弟也反目成仇，孰优孰劣，高下立判！)
• “The victory of Chinese diplomacy” (​​中国外交的胜利)

TAKE THAT USA!

• The U.S.'s plan to disrupt the Middle East failed (老美想搅乱了中东阴谋不得逞)
• The U.S. is definitely going to make trouble (美丽国肯定要去捣乱了!)

Publicly, the White House says it supports anything that "de-escalates tensions" in the Mideast. Privately, there's probably a lot more teeth-gnashing going on in the corridors of the National Security Council (NSC.) This is because the deal gives China a huge diplomatic win while also bolstering Washington's rivals in Tehran.

The White House provided only a brief comment on the story late Friday when NSC Spokesperson John Kirby held a media briefing. That sparked a burst of coverage the following day, but by Sunday the story had been overshadowed by the Silicon Valley Bank collapse.

Unless there's a dramatic new development in the Iran-Saudi Arabia story, it's unlikely that the issue will register much in the media this week.

SUGGESTED READING:

• Reuters: China role in Saudi, Iran deal a tricky test for U.S. by Phil Stewart and Michelle Nichols
• The Washington Post: China brokers Iran-Saudi Arabia detente, raising eyebrows in Washington by John Hudson, Yasmeen Abutaleb and Dan Lamothe

Conservative U.S. lawmakers and the right-wing media reacted strongly to the news that China had brokered a restoration of diplomatic ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia on Friday, blaming President Joe Biden for what they say is more evidence of the administration's failed foreign policy:

• TERRIBLE DEVELOPMENT: "The end result is China is stronger, Iran is stronger. The United States and Israel are weaker and the Middle East is more vulnerable. This is a terrible development" -- John Ratcliff, Former Director of National Intelligence (FOX NEWS)

• AMERICAN DECLINE: "The U.S. was once the indispensable nation but President Biden's often incompetent management of int'l affairs is undoing that. Biden let Communist China become the Middle East's new power broker. This is what American decline under Biden looks like" -- Bill Hagerty, Republican Senator from Tennessee (@SENATORHAGERTY)

• WORLD #2 SUPERPOWER: "A new world order, one where China is the leader. And it’s happening before our eyes. Somebody ought to wake Joe Biden and tell him that, on his watch, our country is fast becoming the world’s No. 2 superpower" -- Michael Goodwin, New York Post Columnist (NEW YORK POST)

• LATEST BIDEN DEBACLE: "Beijing’s brokering of the Iran-Saudi Arabia deal suggests China is now the dominant power in the Middle East. Add the Persian Gulf to the list of Biden foreign policy debacles" -- Gordan Chang, Author of the 20+ year old book "The Coming Collapse of China (@GORDANGCHANG)

• BIDEN ACQUIESCENCE: "China just brokered a Saudi-Iran deal. This is a CHECK on the global chessboard. If China now brokers a Russia-Ukraine deal, which Xi is working on, it’ll be MATE. Game over, and there’s now a new world champion. With Biden’s feeble acquiescence, the era of US dominance is over!" -- Dinesh D'Souza, right wing political commentator and conspiracy theorist (@DINESHDSOUZA)

ADDITIONAL SUGGESTED READING:

• Newsmax: Biden Bungles Our Security While China Mediates Saudi-Iran Peace by Fred Fleitz
• Fox News: John Bolton warns US 'sitting still' as China, Russia 'shore up their relations' by Danielle Wallace

Japan will upgrade its ties with the Southeast Asian bloc ASEAN later this year to a "comprehensive strategic partnership" -- joining both the United States and China at this level. Tokyo is moving quickly to strengthen its ties in the region in response to heightened tensions with China and a desire to diversify critical manufacturing supply chains. (KYODO NEWS)

A PLA Navy warship along with at least 42 Chinese military vessels were spotted this weekend near a Philippine-occupied island in the South China Sea, further straining maritime ties between the two countries. The Philippines Coast Guard called the Chinese naval presence near the island a "blatant violation of (its) territorial integrity." (REUTERS)

ASEAN-led talks between China and Southeast Asian nations that have territorial claims in the South China Sea will resume this week in Jakarta. The Code of Conduct negotiations are being led by rotating ASEAN chair Indonesia in a bid to resolve the increasingly contentious territorial claims involving at least four countries. (MANILA BULLETIN)

Argentina's ambassador to the U.S. Jorge Argüello blasted accusations by Florida Republican representative María Elvira Salazar that Argentina is helping China to establish a military foothold in South America. Argüello rejected the claims made last week by the lawmaker as "offensive" and "insulting." (THE HILL)

The Islamic State (ISIS) terrorist group claimed responsibility for a suicide attack in southwestern Pakistan that killed nine policemen on Monday. The attack took place in a region where Chinese nationals have often been targeted and comes just weeks after an ISIS chapter in neighboring Afghanistan vowed to strike Chinese interests. (REUTERS)

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin arrived in Jordan to kick off a three-nation Mideast tour. The visit is aimed at reassuring partners in the region of Washington's commitment despite the heightened focus on Russia and China.Austin will next visit Israel and Egypt. (REUTERS)

Brazil´s Ministry of Agriculture expects the resumption of beef exports to China in March. This follows a recent halt due to a case of mad cow disease in the state of Pará. If it's determined that the case was atypical or exceptional, Chinese authorities hinted exports can promptly resume. (CHINA LUSOPHONE BRIEF)

Double digit declines in trade with the U.S. and Europe helped to push Chinese imports and export volumes sharply lower in the first two months of the year. This is particularly worrisome news for many developing countries that have become reliant on strong demand from China to bolster exports.(REUTERS)

China went on a coal-buying binge in the first couple months of the year with imports from Australia, Indonesia, Mongolia and other countries surging 71%. But with the economy showing signs of weakness, traders doubt that Chinese buyers will maintain the same pace through the rest of the first quarter. (REUTERS)

Austrialian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese arrived in India on Wednesday for a three-day visit that's aimed in part to bolster security ties against China's growing influence in Asia-Pacific. Albanese is also hoping to expand trade ties with India as a way to reduce Australia's current reliance on the China market. (REUTERS)

The Philippines Coast Guard has launched a new strategy of publicizing aggressive actions by Chinese maritime forces in the disputed South China Sea.“I’d like to emphasize that the best way to address Chinese ‘gray zone’ activities in the West Philippine Sea is to expose it,” Coast Guard Commodore Jay Tarriela. (ASSOCIATED PRESS)

Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba is pushing to expand the number of Bangladeshi companies selling products through its website, as it looks to drum up more business from the South Asian textile and clothing powerhouse. A wave of companies signing up to Alibaba from one of the world's top garment producers would give the website a boost, while offering Bangladesh another channel to generate export earnings. (NIKKEI ASIA)

China featured prominently in this week’s U.S. House Armed Services Committee testimony on U.S. national security challenges in North and South America.

This follows an annual threat assessment by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, which emphasized cooperation between China and Russia. 

Military commanders in the region called on lawmakers to expand formal U.S. engagement in Latin America and the Caribbean. General Laura Richardson, who heads the U.S. Southern Command, told the committee that: “We’ve got to pay more attention to this region [...] The proximity matters. They [China] are on the 20-yard line of our homeland.”

Richardson and her colleagues accused China of bending developing countries to its will through coercive lending and investing practices. She also said China is building “dual-use space facilities” in the region.

Key Highlights of U.S. Generals' Testimony About China Threat in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres

• SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE: "What concerns me as a Combatant Commander is the myriad of ways in which the PRC is spreading its malign influence, wielding its economic might, and conducting gray zone activities to expand its military and political access and influence in the AOR. The PRC is investing in critical infrastructure, including deep-water ports, cyber, and space facilities which can have a potential dual use for malign commercial and military activities. In any potential global conflict, the PRC could leverage strategic regional ports to restrict U.S. naval and commercial ship access. This is a strategic risk that we can’t accept or ignore" -- General Laura J. Richardson, Commander, U.S. Southern Command

• NORTHERN HEMISPHERE: "The PRC remains NORAD and USNORTHCOM’s long-term pacing challenge. Beijing continues ambitious military modernization at an alarming pace. It would be naive to think their sprint to develop advanced cyber tools, maritime capabilities, and hypersonic technology has only regional applications, as the PRC continues to develop advanced long-range conventional and strategic capabilities and the infrastructure necessary to project military power at greater distances. Underpinning this growth is a rapid nuclear expansion that is on pace for the PRC to expand their nuclear stockpile from what DoD estimates is over 400 today to about 1,500 by 2035. While less observable, the PRC’s aggressive efforts to exploit the information technology sector are accelerating an increasing threat to North America" -- General Glen D. VanHerck, Commander U.S. Northern Command

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? This rhetoric echoes the escalated language coming from Beijing. On Monday, President Xi Jinping said: “Western countries led by the United States have contained and suppressed us in an all-round way, which has brought unprecedented severe challenges to our development,” and called on Chinese private companies to join the government and CPC to ‘fight’ challenges at home and overseas.

SUGGESTED READING:

• CNN: US generals warn China is aggressively expanding its influence in South America and the Caribbean by Haley Britzky
• The National: China to continue deepening ties with Russia, US intel chiefs say by Kyle Fitzgerald

Qin Gang's first press conference as foreign minister on the sidelines of the National People's Congress now underway in Beijing will be remembered for his warning to the United States that if Washington really wants to pick a fight with China, then that's what they'll get.

But in between Qin's various counterattacks against the U.S. on Tuesday, the new foreign minister also laid out several important new themes in Chinese policy that will shape Beijing's engagement in developing regions:

• WARNING TO ASEAN: Although Southeast Asia is the frontline in the burgeoning U.S.-China rivalry, Qin made it clear that countries in the region need to stay out of the fight and avoid picking sides. (CHANNEL NEWS ASIA)

• ENCIRCLED IN ASIA: Qin accused the U.S. of organizing "exclusive blocs... to encircle China" which he said would undermine regional stability. The FM is responding to DC's increasingly close ties with treaty partners like the Philippines and U.S.-led initiatives like AUKUS, the Quad and IPEF. (THE HINDU)

• MODERNIZATION ≠ WESTERNIZATION: Qin made it clear Beijing plans to lean into its ties with developing countries by highlighting China as an alternative development model. “Chinese modernization [is not] pursued through war, colonization or plunder,” he said. “It is a new path, different [from] Western modernization." (SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST)

• THE BRI IS STILL A THING: While senior Chinese leaders have been noticeably quiet about the BRI lately, Qin was far more outspoken. He noted that more emphasis will be placed on building "high-quality" infrastructure and announced a third BRI forum will take place this year to mark the 10th anniversary of the BRI. (GLOBAL TIMES)

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Tuesday's press conference highlighted the need for stakeholders in developing countries to read very carefully between the lines of different U.S.-China screaming matches to find the data points relating to their own countries' relationships with both China and the U.S.

SUGGESTED READING:

• CNN: China’s new foreign minister warns of conflict with US, defends Russia ties by Nectar Gan
• Kyodo News: China warns Japan not to join U.S. efforts to contain it

Nigeria marked an important milestone this week when its total public debt topped 49 trillion naira or $108 billion. Curiously, the editors at the popular online news site Legit thought that the country's $4.15 billion debt to China was worth mentioning in the story's headline.

The reason this is odd is because Chinese loans account for just 3.8% of Nigeria's total public debt, whereas in the past two months alone, the Federal Government borrowed $4.6 billion from elsewhere to plug its ballooning budget deficit.

While Nigerian borrowing from China has largely been stable for the past few years, the country's national debt surged 300% since 2015.

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? It's highly misleading to suggest that Nigeria has a specific Chinese debt problem (rather than a larger debt problem.) Yet the story shows this myth remains compelling to local media.

SUGGESTED READING:

• Legit News: Nigeria’s Debt Hits N49 Trillion Becomes 5th Most Indebted African Country to China by Pascal Oparada
• Punch: FG owes China, Japan, Germany, two others $4.85bn by Sami Olatunji and Edidiong Ikpoto

Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen welcomed eSwatini Prime Minister Cleopas Sipho Dlamini during an official visit to Taipei.

The prime minister expressed the Kingdom's support for Taiwan's admission to the United Nations and criticized China's efforts to coerce the island through "any sort of bullying or aggression."

eSwatini is now Taiwan's last diplomatic ally in Africa and one of only 13 around the world. (CENTRAL NEWS AGENCY)

Don't blame us, blame them emerged as a sort of chorus among various Chinese spokespeople in Beijing in recent days. They're all pushing back against accusations that Beijing is the cause of the worsening debt crisis in Africa, Asia and other Global South regions.

BLAME THE MULTILATERAL DEVELOPMENT BANKS: Wang Chao, spokesperson for China's rubber-stamp legislature, told a press conference on Saturday that critics should be focusing more on the role of multilateral development banks like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund rather than China in addressing the debt crisis in Africa, given their outsized role. 

Chao also reminded journalists that China's share of African debt is significantly smaller than that of commercial creditors. (GLOBAL TIMES)

BLAME THE UNITED STATES: Over at the Foreign Ministry, spokesperson Mao Ning renewed accusations that large fiscal stimulus by the United States during the pandemic is to blame for economic conditions in many Global South countries. 

“Radical fiscal policy of a certain developed country is the main reason behind the financial difficulties of a large number of developing countries," she said referring to the surge of global inflation and subsequent interest rate hikes that happened in response to the billions of dollars injected into the U.S. economy. (BLOOMBERG)

"BASELESS" ACCUSATIONS: Guo Weimin, Chinese spokesperson for the People's Political Consultative Conference, said any accusation that China sets "debt traps" for developing countries is "baseless" and said such accusations are nothing more than "noise." (XINHUA)

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? The comments by the three spokespeople provide the clearest indication to date that China's messaging on the debt issue is now firmly locked in place. The government now seems wholly aligned around the narrative that the debt problems faced by developing countries is not China's fault and any suggestion of even partial responsibility will be dismissed.

SUGGESTED READING:

• Bloomberg: China Blames US’s ‘Radical Fiscal Policy’ for EM Debt Troubles by Tom Hancock
• Global Times: NPC spokesperson refutes Western claims of 'Chinese debt trap' in Africa by Tu Lei

Gyude Moore, a senior policy fellow at the Center for Global Development, is among a small group of Washington, D.C.-based analysts trying to devise practical solutions for how developing countries can unblock the current impasse preventing debt-distressed countries from restructuring their loans.

The following transcript was adapted and lightly edited for clarity from a seven-part Twitter thread posted by Moore.

Since the G20's Common Framework is failing and debt restructuring talks are at an impasse, countries in the ensuing expensive and deteriorating limbo have to do something. China’s preference is for bilateral negotiations and mostly extending the repayment period.

There is no reason, however, why debtors cannot compare and share notes from each individual negotiation and still coalesce around a common strategy. Hannah Ryder from Development Reimagined proposes a Borrowers’ Club to engage Creditors’ Clubs like the Paris Club or Creditor Committees.

This is likely the way to go instead of perpetually waiting for an unworkable process to deliver solutions for citizens caught in the middle.

Chinese state-connected newspapers are writing for a domestic audience supporting China’s negotiating position. As CGSP's Eric Olander notes, this makes it less likely that China will walk this position back. China is not going to be swayed by India or the United States on this issue.

An African Union-led Borrowers’ Club that invites Pakistan and Sri Lanka can still attempt to obtain through bilateral negotiations, what they seek through the multilateral process. While it is not guaranteed success, it is still better than waiting for a solution that’s not coming.

It was always my understanding that the African Union is seeking a seat at the G-20 to inject its views, solutions and perspectives on global governance issues. Its silence on the debt negotiation impasse has thus been puzzling. This is tailor-made for the AU.

There is a relentless undermining of multilateralism underway, and culpability is widespread. Former rule takers want their turn as rule makers only to face resistance from incumbents. The extent of proposed rule changes are also problematic. There is a need for a third way.

Read the full seven-part thread on Gyude Moore's Twitter page.

While stark differences over the war in Ukraine made it impossible for G20 foreign ministers to reach a consensus at last week's meeting in New Delhi, China's Qin Gang nonetheless took advantage of the opportunity to hold a number of bilateral meetings with key counterparts.

Over the weekend, the Chinese Foreign Ministry released details of Qin's meetings, including several from countries with tense ties with China:

🇮🇳 INDIA:  Qin's sit-down with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar was the highlight of the week as it marked a resumption of high-level meetings after the countries became embroiled in military conflict along their disputed border in 2020. (XINHUA)

🇦🇺 AUSTRALIA: Qin's meeting with Penny Wong is the latest indication of thawing ties between the two countries. Australia is keen to have China remove the last remaining sanctions against a number of its imports. (CHINESE EMBASSY IN INDIA)

🇸🇦 SAUDI ARABIA: Qin's meeting with Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud marks the first high-level interaction between the two countries since Xi Jinping's visit to the Kingdom last December. Saudi Arabia is China's largest oil supplier. (CHINESE EMBASSY IN INDIA)

Ghana’s President Nana Akufo-Addo is optimistic that the debt-ridden country will reach a bailout deal with the International Monetary Fund by the end of the month.

Speaking at a gathering of ambassadors and high-level officials, Akufo-Addo said: “I’m confident that with the cooperation that we’re receiving from the Paris Club and the People’s Republic of China which has sent a delegation from China’s EXIM Bank to Accra over the weekend to meet with officials of the Ministry of Finance, we shall be able to go to the board of the Fund to conclude finally the agreement by the end of March.”

After the recent postponement of a trip to Beijing by Finance Minister Ken Ofori-Atta, the news that debt talks are ongoing signals some progress.

However, this may be affected by a 2021 deal between Ghana and the Chinese state-owned company Sinohydro for infrastructure backed by a massive bauxite concession. The IMF feels that the $2 billion deal should be counted as part of Ghana’s debt stock. However, Accra insists it is a barter deal, not a loan.

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? The Exim Bank delegation's visit could signal progress for Ghana, the second African country to default on its debt after the pandemic. However, it should be noted that China only makes up about a tenth of Ghana's external debt, which is dominated by Western private lending.

SUGGESTED READING:

• Rainbow Radio: Chinese cooperation will enable us conclude debt agreement by end of March – Prez
• Reuters: China must join Ghana debt restructuring effort soon, Germany's Lindner says by Christian Akorlie and Cooper Inveen