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A delegation of lawmakers from Paraguay arrived in Taiwan on Sunday for what will be a critical test for Taipei to hold on to one of its last remaining diplomatic allies. 

Last September, President Mario Abdo Benítez said it would cost Taipei $1 billion of investment if it wants to maintain diplomatic relations.

If the delegation leaves Taiwan this week with a batch of investment agreements, it could be an indication that President Tsai Ing-wen may be willing to fulfill Benítez's demand.

If not, then Paraguay may be the next country in the Americas to follow Honduras's lead to transfer diplomatic relations from Taiwan to China.

Three of the U.S. military's regional theater commanders for Asia, Africa and the Middle East spoke publicly last week in testimony and speeches that highlighted how the Pentagon now sees China as its top global challenge.

The top commander of U.S. forces in Africa (AFRICOM), General Michael Langley and Central Command (CENTCOM) commander General Michael Kurilla appeared together last Thursday at the Senate Armed Services Committee, where China was referenced 84 times during the hearing.

Also on Thursday, Indo-Pacific commander Admiral John Aquilino spoke of the challenges he's facing in managing military-to-military ties with the PLA during an event in Singapore organized by the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Key Highlights From the Three U.S. Regional Commanders Comments Regarding China:

• AFRICA: "Our focus is on [China] trying to change the international order, trying to change the international system that is very compelling and how they engage with African nations on the continent, and how they vote in the UN General Assembly. That's an indication that they cannot gain a strategic advantage unless it's along their norms or what they consider their norms" -- U.S. Africa Command commander General Michael Langley (CENTCOM TRANSCRIPT)

• THE MIDDLE EAST: "China is often viewed by regional partners as more accommodating than the U.S., offering lower costs, favorable financing, faster delivery times and 12 no end-use monitoring agreements. During my trips to the region and calls with regional Chiefs of Defense, I routinely hear how much faster and easier China’s foreign military sales program is than ours" -- U.S. Central Command commander General Michael Kurilla (i24 NEWS)

• ASIA-PACIFIC: "First and foremost, the United States is not seeking conflict in the Indo-Pacific region. Second, we do not seek to contain the People’s Republic of China ... Third, the United States has not changed our policies toward Taiwan, and we do not support independence" -- U.S. Indo-Pacific commander Admiral John Aquilino (AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW) 

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? The U.S. military's regional theater commanders are among the most important stakeholders in the U.S. policymaking process. Their collective assessment that China is now the central threat facing U.S. global hegemony carries disproportionate weight among lawmakers on Capitol Hill and down the street at the White House. Basically, what they have to say matters... a lot.

SUGGESTED READING:

• i24: US CENTCOM chief rings alarm over China's growing Mideast influence by Mike Wagenheim
• Today News Africa: China is America’s greatest threat in Africa, top U.S. commander Michael Langley tells senate by Simon Ateba

United States Marine Corps General Michael Langley made his first appearance before the Senate Armed Services Committee as the top commander for U.S. forces in Africa or AFRICOM.

Langley replaced Army General Stephen J. Townsend last year, who played a critical role in elevating concern on Capitol Hill about China's growing influence on the continent, particularly related to unconfirmed reports that the PLA was seeking to build a second military base in Africa.

Based on his testimony last week, it appears that General Langley will build on the narrative set by his predecessor. The AFRICOM leader told Senators that China's aims on the continent can broadly be categorized into three distinct areas:

1. GEOPOLITICAL:  "They're trying to change the international norms and they're using some African countries within the UN construct whether it be the General Assembly or the Security Council trying to affect votes to change those international norms and international system writ large."

2. GEOSTRATEGIC: "[The Chinese have] aspirations for military bases on the continent of Africa. Just talked to my African partners, they don't want to be militarized in a strategic sense."

3. GEOECONOMIC: "[O]ur future economy is dependent upon a number of rare earth minerals, and also some are clean energy technologies depend upon the rare earth minerals. About 30 to 40% of those minerals are on the continent of Africa, that -- that's forward thinking by the PRC."

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Regional U.S. military commanders like General Langley have a much more prominent role in the policymaking process than military leaders in other countries. Therefore, how these commanders perceive certain issues can have a disproportionate impact on Congressional lawmakers.

SUGGESTED READING AND VIEWING:

• U.S. Africa Command: Watch full testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee, March 16, 2023
• Associated Press: Marine general takes over Africa Command, sees challenges by Lolita Baldor

Senior diplomats from the United States and China, along with the Prime Minister of Denmark, are currently in Africa. No doubt they all have watchful eyes on each other:

• CHINA: Beijing's Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa, Xue Bing, made a surprise appearance in Addis Ababa on Tuesday where he reaffirmed China's support for the Tigray peace process and pushed back on accusations that China engages in predatory lending in Africa. (XINHUA) INSIGHT: Xue is ostensibly there to ensure China is relevant in the ongoing peace process but so far he's had little impact.

• UNITED STATES: Secretary of State Antony Blinken praised Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed on the implementation of the Tigray peace process but did not, as some expected, restore Ethiopia's free trade access to the U.S. market. (REUTERS) INSIGHT: Unlike previous Secretary of State visits where U.S. competition with China was always a prominent issue, this time China has barely come up in Blinken's rhetoric or in the press coverage.

• DENMARK: Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen is traveling to Egypt in a dual capacity, both representing her country and as an ambassador of Europe. She has framed her visit as a way to avoid Europe from becoming "isolated in a new world" amid a "battle for influence on the African continent." (AL MAYADEEN ENGLISH) INSIGHT: While Denmark is by no means a "great power," it is a prominent development funder in Africa. Frederiksen's visit follows French President Emmanuel Macron's recent tour of Africa. Together they highlight Europe's renewed enthusiasm to challenge Russia and China's influence in the region.

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? While high-level visits from U.S. and European leaders have increased dramatically in 2023 compared to previous years, the key question is whether this enhanced engagement will lead to tangible outcomes on the ground or if the focus is more on posturing against the Chinese and Russia. At this point, it's still too early to tell.

SUGGESTED READING:

• Xinhua: Chinese envoy refutes allegations of "debt trap" in Africa
• The Wall Street Journal: Kamala Harris, Antony Blinken Head to Africa in a Bid to Counter China by William Mauldin and Nicholas Bariyo

Canadian mining giant Ivanhoe released its 2022 full-year earnings on Monday that revealed the company made a robust profit of $434 million from the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which it jointly operates with Chinese mining major Zijin Mining Group.

The Kamoa-Kakula mine generated 215 percent more copper in 2022 than it did in 2021 and Ivanhoe expects it to produce even more in 2023. (MUGGLEHEAD MAGAZINE)

The Chinese government warned that the deployment of nuclear-powered attack submarines to Australia would provoke a dangerous new arms race and undermine the increasingly fragile stability in the Asia-Pacific region.

Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin issued a blunt response when asked on Tuesday at the Foreign Ministry's regular press briefing for China's reaction to the news that the U.S. and UK will sell Australia at least half-a-dozen submarines valued at an estimated $368 billion:

We’ve repeatedly said that the establishment of the so-called AUKUS security partnership between the U.S., the UK and Australia to promote cooperation on nuclear submarines and other cutting-edge military technologies is a typical Cold War mentality. It will only exacerbate arms race, undermine the international nuclear non-proliferation regime and hurt regional peace and stability.

It's important to note that statements from Chinese officials, including Wang, that the AUKUS submarine deal would violate the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT) doesn't seem accurate based on currently available information.

While the new Australian submarines would be propelled by nuclear power, nothing in Tuesday's agreement hints that these subs would actually carry nuclear weapons.

Chinese Analysts on Why They Think Australia is the Big Loser in AUKUS

• AUSTRALIA GOT PLAYED: "Although Australia appears to be a "winner" - it will be the seventh country in the world to have a nuclear submarine, the other six being the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China, India and Russia - Australia is only one of the funders and users of the three-way partnership. The core technology and manufacturing is still in the hands of the U.S. and U.K., making Australia a "big loser" in the tripartite cooperation" -- Yu Lei, Principal Researcher at the Pacific Islands Research Center at Liaocheng University (GLOBAL TIMES -- in Chinese)

• AUSTRALIA GETS STUCK WITH THE BILL: "Australia will need to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to create a nuclear submarine base that can produce both Australian submarines and U.S. and British submarines, which have limited production capacity. Not only that, but Australia needs to make the base a maintenance and security facility, with the ability to maintain and secure U.S. and British nuclear submarines in the Asia-Pacific region, spending Australian money to do the work of the U.S. and serve the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy, which is unprecedented" -- Song Zhongping, adjunct professor and popular TV commentator (GLOBAL TIMES -- in Chinese)

• NEW U.S. "ARMS ALLIANCE": "The U.S. is currently creating "arms alliances" in its military alliance system. On the one hand, the U.S. will use its leading joint weapons and equipment research and development programs to better control its allies and use their resources and funds to make U.S. arms dealers earn a lot of money" -- Wei Dongxu, a Beijing-based military analyst (GLOBAL TIMES -- in Chinese)

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? The fact that Global Times appears to be focusing the bulk of its ire on Australia is notable and may indicate that they see Canberra as the most vulnerable to Chinese pressure and countermeasures.

SUGGESTED READING:

• China Daily: AUKUS nuclear submarine 'cooperation' reckless acceleration on a dangerous road: China Daily editorial 
• Global Times: Australia may 'pay expensive price' as AUKUS nuke sub deal only serves US hegemony: experts by Wang Qi

Indonesia's Foreign Ministry took to Twitter on Tuesday to restate its longstanding concern that Australia's acquisition of U.S. and UK-made nuclear-powered attack submarines could destabilize the Asia-Pacific region and violate the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT) of which Australia is a signatory.

Jakarta's statement closely aligns with China's position on the issue, specifically that the submarines threaten to undermine the NPT, which is a bit odd, given that the AUKUS agreement unveiled on Tuesday in California does not make any reference to nuclear weapons, only to nuclear propulsion submarines.

But some analysts saw the Foreign Ministry's position as performative, given Indonesia's increasingly close security cooperation with Australia. "Check out how Indonesia has furthered its defense and security ties with Australia and the U.S., especially after AUKUS was first announced in September 2021," said Collin Koh, a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies Policy in Singapore.

"Actions count over rhetoric," he added.

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? This is what diplomatic hedging looks like in Southeast Asia. Indonesia, like all of its neighboring states, is confronted with the reality that it's stuck in between China and its Asian and Western rivals. So, tweets like this send a conciliatory message to Beijing while not alienating the U.S. and its partners.

SUGGESTED READING:

• ABC Australia: Indonesia and Australia promise new defence cooperation agreement despite AUKUS tensions by Stephen Dziedzic
• The Guardian: Indonesian ambassador warns Australia Aukus pact must not fuel a hypersonic arms race by Daniel Hurst

This year-old map produced by the UK-based think tank Council on Geostrategy is circulating widely on Twitter this week following Tuesday's AUKUS summit in California and last week's comments by President Xi Jinping that the U.S. and its allies are "encircling" China.

For the second time in a week, the Chinese government has issued a warning to the Philippines not to grant the U.S. military access to more bases in the country.

An editorial in Tuesday's edition of the state-run China Daily newspaper was clear: get too close to the U.S. and suffer economic consequences:

China has for six consecutive years been the Philippines' largest trade partner. That's a good reason for the Philippines to maintain good ties with China, rather than giving in to the nefarious designs of the United States.

The China Daily editorial was published just three days after a spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in Manila warned that collaborating too closely with the U.S. will lead to "strife that will seriously harm Philippine national interests and endanger regional peace and stability."

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? These two warnings are the latest indications that Sino-Philippines ties have declined seriously, at least in the near term. It's likely that this kind of rhetoric will fuel anti-Chinese hostility within Manila's governing class and push President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. even closer to the United States.

SUGGESTED READING:

• China Daily: Manila must rethink defense ties with Washington
• The Diplomat: China Warns Philippines Over US Access to Military Bases by Sebastian Strangio

Given that China and the Mideast are two of the three primary obsessions among U.S.-based national security think tanks (Russia being the third, of course), it shouldn't be a huge surprise that analysts reacted very fast with their assessment of Friday's rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

The Atlantic Council was the first to respond (and the most prolific), publishing insights from 14 different analysts within 24 hours of the deal's announcement. But over the course of the weekend, the debate shifted to Twitter, where it became almost impossible to keep up with the pace of commentary from scholars and analysts in the U.S. and around the world.

Highlights from U.S. Think Tank Analysis of the Iran-Saudi Arabia Deal

• NEW PLAYER IN MIDEAST DIPLOMACY: "This engagement between Saudi Arabia and Iran may lead to something positive, and it may fizzle. It’s too early to proclaim it anything other than a good first step. It is, however, significant as China’s first major foray into regional diplomacy" -- Jonathan Fulton, Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council (ATLANTIC COUNCIL)

• AMERICA, DON'T FRET: "There will be some who see Friday’s news as diminishing the perception of U.S. power, but Americans should welcome this agreement. It shows that China can be a constructive player in a crisis-ridden region at a time when much of the rest of the world is preoccupied by the war in Ukraine" -- Barbara Slavin, Distinguished Fellow at the Stimson Center (STIMSON CENTER)

• CHINA ⬆️, UNITED STATES ⬇️: "The not-so-subtle message that China is sending is that while the United States is the preponderant military power in the Gulf, China is a powerful and rising diplomatic presence. This adds to a perception of Chinese power and influence around the world, and it contributes to a narrative of a shrinking U.S. global presence" -- Jon B. Alterman, Director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)

• CONFRONTATION VS. STABILITY: "China's role in mediating the restoration of Iran-Saudi diplomatic ties is also a significant development in the Middle East. At a time when the US has reportedly greenlighted Israel to increase confrontation with Iran, China is advancing increased regional stability" -- Sina Toosi, Senior Fellow at the Center for International Policy (@SINATOOSI)

• WHAT BEIJING WANTS: "What’s in it for Beijing? Simply put China wants stability in the Middle East to ensure the free flow of energy from the region. De-escalation between two regional powers and major energy producers is critical to those objectives" -- Karim Sadjadpour, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (@KSADJAPOUR)

ADDITIONAL SUGGESTED READING:

• The Atlantic Council: Experts react: Iran and Saudi Arabia just agreed to restore relations, with help from China. Here’s what that means for the Middle East and the world.
• The Atlantic Council: Full throttle in neutral: China’s new security architecture for the Middle East by Tuvia Gering

While the bulk of the discussion in the news media and on Twitter about the resumption of diplomatic ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia focused on the magnitude of the deal -- both in terms of the impact on Mideast politics and because of China's surprise role as mediator -- some commentators also urged everyone to step back, take a breath and reserve judgement.

First, they noted that the deal was negotiated by Iranian and Saudi Arabian security officials, not the countries' diplomats. This should prompt consideration as to whether key internal stakeholders on both sides are truly ready to put aside decades of mistrust.

The other important point that several analysts highlighted was Yemen. The war there will show whether the Iranians and Saudi Arabians are ready to stop backing their proxy forces and bring an end to the near-decade-long conflict.

Key Highlights of Analysts and Journalists' Skeptical Assessment of the Iran-Saudi Arabia Détente

• WHAT HAPPENS IF IT DOESN'T WORK OUT? "Today’s announcement on Iran-Saudi deal being portrayed as a ‘big win’ for China: its significant, but remains to be seen if it’s a win. If China is really the guarantor of the deal, what happens if the restoration of ties doesn’t go as planned? How will China police it?" -- Dina Esfandiary, Senior Advisor MENA for the International Crisis Group (@DESFANDIARY)

• CHINA NOW OWNS A BIG A PROBLEM: "Given [the] hard realities, the agreement announced in Beijing is unlikely to greatly alter the risks of conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia. But it does give China ownership of a problem nobody else wants. Good luck with that" -- Bobby Ghosh, Columnist at Bloomberg Opinion (BLOOMBERG)

• LET'S SEE WHAT HAPPENS IN YEMEN: "There's still plenty of problems with Iran. I think that the essentials of the rivalry are still there. Cease-fire in Yemen, but no settlement, right? To me, the real signal of a Saudi-Iranian rapprochement will be a settlement. If the Chinese could do that, then, you know, Nobel Prizes all around" -- Professor Gregory Gause, Head of the International Affairs Department at the Bush School of Government at the University of Texas (NATIONAL PUBLIC RADIO)

• NEGOTIATED BY SECURITY OFFICIALS, NOT DIPLOMATS: "The agreement is a “security deal” and has the blessing of leaders of both 🇮🇷and 🇸🇦: SL Ali Khamenei and King Salman (or MBS). The fact that Iranian and Saudi national security advisors -not diplomats- clinched the deal after 5-day intense talks shows they had to settle out persistent disputes" -- Fereshteh Sadeghi, Iranian journalist based in Tehran (@FRES_SADEGH)

Chinese Mideast specialists were quicker than usual in weighing in on Friday's Persian Gulf deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Broadly speaking, most scholars attributed China's success in finalizing the agreement to President Xi Jinping's commitment to "personal diplomacy" since 2014 and to the diplomatic opening created by the United States, which they largely believe has been steadily losing influence in the Mideast.

Key Highlights of Chinese Scholarly Reaction to the Iran-Saudi Arabia Deal

• CHINA'S "SPECIAL ADVANTAGE": "The reason for the resumption of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran is first and foremost their own realistic need and desire to cooperate. If there is no intrinsic motivation, external factors are hardly going to work. Also the two sides have been talking for a long time but still needed an extra boost. Because of its special advantage in the Middle East thanks to its good relations with both countries [China] was able to play an [important] role and pushed for reconciliation" -- Jin Canrong, Professor of International Relations at Renmin University (JIN CANRONG'S WEIBO)

• U.S. BECAME A COMPETITOR TO THE SAUDIS:  "Amid declining U.S. engagement in the Middle East, the desire for countries in the region to seek their own security and stability has gone up significantly. In the background of all this is the shale gas revolution in the United States. In the past, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia were complementary but beginning in 2010, the two countries' relationship gradually became more competitive as the U.S. grew into a major oil and gas exporter. Therefore, the willingness of the U.S. to provide stability to the Middle East gradually declined" -- Sun Suyuan, Associate Researcher at the Institute of International Relations and Regional Development at East China Normal University (SINA FINANCE)

• STILL A LOT OF WORK TO BE DONE: "It is one thing for China to host the talks, but it is another for China to help implement the signed agreement on time. What kind of guarantees will China provide if one of the parties does not respect the agreement? Frankly speaking, although Saudi Arabia and Iran have reached an agreement to normalize relations, the contradictions between the two countries are still clearly visible. Through the successful mediation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, to a certain extent, the outside world can change the inherent impression that China only or mainly focuses on economic issues in the Middle East and despises issues such as security." -- Fan Hongda, Professor at the Middle East Studies Institute at Shanghai International Studies University (IRAN DAILY)

• CHINA'S PERSONAL DIPLOMACY PAID OFF: “China has worked hard to promote security in the Middle East since 2014 when President Xi first proposed a new concept of common, comprehensive, cooperative, and sustainable security. The fact that Saudi and Iranian delegations came to Beijing for talks demonstrates China's sincerity and a vote of confidence [in its abilities]. [The pact also] serves as an effective illustration of the Global Security Initiative in action. The fact that archrivals such as Saudi Arabia and Iran were able to beat their swords into plowshares [铸剑为犁] thanks to China's mediation fully demonstrates the GSI's lofty vision, which can serve as a compass and a roadmap for calming conflicts and resolving contradictions [worldwide]"  -- Ding Long, Professor at Shanghai International Studies University (GLOBAL TIMES via The Discourse Power newsletter)

• THE NEW "BEIJING CONSENSUS": “What astonished people around the world was that the Middle East has traditionally been dominated by the US or Russia, not China. It was the U.S. that would facilitate or back Middle East peace initiatives, such as the 1978 Camp David peace agreement between Egypt and Israel brokered by President Jimmy Carter and the 1993 Oslo Accords between Palestine and Israel brokered by President Bill Clinton. “This occasion could serve as a model for Beijing's effective mediation of significant regional crises and lead to the emergence of a "Beijing Consensus" [北京模式 lit. “Beijing Model”]" -- Ma Xiaolin, Director of Zhejiang University's Institute for Studies on the Mediterranean Rim (CHINA DAILY via The Discourse Power newsletter)

ADDITIONAL SUGGESTED READING:

• The Paper: Grand Diplomacy｜Saudi-Iran "Beijing Reconciliation": The Victory of Peace and the Demonstration of China's Role by Zhu Zhengyong and Yu Xiaoqing (in Chinese)
• Beijing Daily: Wu Sike, former Chinese ambassador to Saudi Arabia: The resumption of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Saudi Arabia conforms to the general trend, and China's efforts will pay off for a long time (in Chinese)

There wasn't a huge response on Chinese social media to the news that Beijing facilitated the restoration of diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran given that it's a pretty esoteric topic for most people. 

Nonetheless, there was some discussion on more internationally-focused Weibo channels like Sina Military. Reactions tended to swing between nationalist pride and suspicion that the U.S. will somehow find a way to mess it all up.

A lot of commentators also framed the deal in business rather than political terms, seeing it as an opportunity for all sides to make money:

WIN-WIN:

• “How nice to make money together”（一起赚钱多好）
• “High emotional intelligence: making money together and developing together” （高情商：一起赚钱一起发展）

PROUD OF CHINA:

• “Ah, not bad, the rabbit is the master of peace.”(哎哟，不错嘛，我兔才是和平大师)
• “The king's way is to make a thousand years of grudges die with a smile; the hegemony is to make brothers and sisters also turn against each other. We can see immediately which is good and which is bad! (王道，就是能让千年恩怨一笑泯恩仇；霸道，就是让手足兄弟也反目成仇，孰优孰劣，高下立判！)
• “The victory of Chinese diplomacy” (​​中国外交的胜利)

TAKE THAT USA!

• The U.S.'s plan to disrupt the Middle East failed (老美想搅乱了中东阴谋不得逞)
• The U.S. is definitely going to make trouble (美丽国肯定要去捣乱了!)

Publicly, the White House says it supports anything that "de-escalates tensions" in the Mideast. Privately, there's probably a lot more teeth-gnashing going on in the corridors of the National Security Council (NSC.) This is because the deal gives China a huge diplomatic win while also bolstering Washington's rivals in Tehran.

The White House provided only a brief comment on the story late Friday when NSC Spokesperson John Kirby held a media briefing. That sparked a burst of coverage the following day, but by Sunday the story had been overshadowed by the Silicon Valley Bank collapse.

Unless there's a dramatic new development in the Iran-Saudi Arabia story, it's unlikely that the issue will register much in the media this week.

SUGGESTED READING:

• Reuters: China role in Saudi, Iran deal a tricky test for U.S. by Phil Stewart and Michelle Nichols
• The Washington Post: China brokers Iran-Saudi Arabia detente, raising eyebrows in Washington by John Hudson, Yasmeen Abutaleb and Dan Lamothe