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The Philippines Coast Guard and Navy successfully outmaneuvered a Chinese blockade to bring food and other provisions to a remote outpost in the South China Sea -- but not before several harrowing confrontations with Chinese vessels that appeared determined to prevent the Filipino vessels from passing.

Chinese fishing vessels, known as the maritime militia, also took part in Friday's stand-off with Philippines ships that had to move quickly to avoid being rammed and to make their way through more than a dozen Chinese vessels.

The Chinese Coast Guard said the Philippines supply boats and two coast guard ships had illegally entered its waters near the Second Thomas Shoal, part of the larger South China Sea territory that China claims for itself -- a point that is fiercely opposed by the Philippines and other countries in the region that also have claims to portions of the South China Sea.

Meantime overhead, a U.S. Air Force P-8 Poseidon reconnaissance aircraft closely monitored the situation in the event that the Philippines vessels called on the U.S. for assistance as part of the two countries' mutual defense treaty.

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? The intensity of the showdowns between the Chinese and Philippines Coast Guards appears to be increasing, raising the chances of an accident or other confrontation that could lead to the intervention of the U.S. Navy, which is now on standby should Manila call for its assistance.

SUGGEST READING:

• ABS-CBN: Philippines says China 'harassed' new resupply mission for BRP Sierra Madre by Jauhn Etienne Villarue
• Reuters: In cat and mouse game, Philippines resupplies troops in South China Sea atoll by Jay Ereno

Zambian President Haikinde Hichilema landed in the southern Chinese megacity of Shenzhen on Sunday to kick off a six-day visit to China that will include highly-anticipated talks with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping to finalize the details of a debt restructuring deal signed last June.

Chinese creditors own an estimated two-thirds of Zambia's bilateral debt and played a central role in more than two years of negotiations that resulted in the deal that was agreed to in Paris earlier this summer.

Hichilema's challenge this week, according to Zambian scholar Emmanuel Matambo, researcher director at the Centre for Africa-China Studies at the University of Johannesburg, is to keep Beijing engaged in the debt restructuring process while at the same time try to persuade the Chinese government to provide new development financing:

• DEBT RESTRUCTURING: China was curiously reticent about the debt restructuring process right up to the consummation of the deal in June 2023. Thus, the invitation to visit China is supposed to clear some of the misunderstandings, if not in substance, at least in form. Hichilema will want to get more assurance from China about continuing its commitment to Zambia in terms of infrastructure in the transport and energy sector.

• DEBT WRITE-OFFS: There has been widespread disenchantment about the rising costs of commodities in Zambia. Beijing, through its Embassy in Zambia, is well aware of how Hichilema has been embarrassed by angry citizens twice this year in the Mandevu constituency. To help him, China might actually want to write off some of the debt owed to it by Zambia.

• STABLE TIES: China's detractors are keen to draw adverse conclusions from China's unusual silence during the debt restructuring negotiations. China was silent but not hostile to the process. Relations between the two countries remain on an even keel and will do so, if not out of genuine diplomacy, then out of history and necessity.

The president is also scheduled to meet with Chinese investors to try and entice them to invest in Zambia's mining, energy and infrastructure sectors.

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? This trip is going to be critical for both countries to try and close the debt restructuring deal and put it behind them. China's critics have long blamed Beijing for dragging out the process, while Hichilema is coming under increasing pressure at home for letting this drag on. While the deal may have been agreed to back in June, it still needs to be finalized by the various creditors, which is what he's hopefully going to do this week.

SUGGESTED READING:

• Reuters: Zambian president to visit China, seeks to formalise June debt deal by Joe Cash
• Associated Press: Debt-plagued Zambia reaches deal with China, other nations to rework $6.3B in loans, French say by Sylvie Corbet

Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang sought to soothe tensions with its neighbors in Southeast Asia during his keynote address on Wednesday at the ASEAN leaders summit in Jakarta.

Li did not specifically reference the recent confrontations with the Philippines in the South China Sea, nor did he mention the controversial map that China released last week, which further angered a number of Southeast Asian countries that have ongoing boundary disputes with Beijing.

Instead, he said, "China and ASEAN have succeeded in blazing a correct path of long-term good-neighborliness and friendship." Li's speech also drew on a number of longstanding Chinese talkings that reference the current geopolitical turbulence, including "the world is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century."

It's unlikely that Li's bland speech will make much of an impression on his fellow leaders at the summit, especially after Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr.'s far more point remarks on Tuesday that directly addressed the South China Sea crisis -- even though he seemingly went out of his way not to mention China by name:

• OPPOSE HEGEMONIC POWER IN SOUTHEAST ASIA: “[ASEAN] must never allow the international peaceful order to be subjected to the forces of might, applied for a hegemonic ambition.”

• ASSERTION OF PHILIPPINES AGENCY: "The Philippines firmly rejects misleading narratives that frame the disputes in the South China Sea solely through the lens of strategic competition between two powerful countries. This not only denies us of our independence and our agency, but it also disregards our own legitimate interests."

While President Marcos was outspoken in his defense of Philippines agency in the duel with China over contested maritime territory, it appears that he did not want to escalate the issue further at the summit.

Manila did not request ASEAN to issue a joint statement on the South China Sea, making it highly unlikely that ASEAN will directly respond to the crisis.

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? As tense as relations are between China and several of its ASEAN neighbors, this week's summit in Jakarta is probably not going to be the venue where those differences are aired. ASEAN is very much a consensus-based organization that has long sought to avoid divisive disputes among its members and the major powers.

SUGGESTED READING:

• Nikkei Asia: ASEAN summit begins as China's new territorial map fuels tensions by Tsubasa Suruga, Ismi Damayanti and Nana Shibata
• Deustche Welle: ASEAN: Indonesia, Malaysia urge staying out of global rows

Whether by coincidence or design, three Southeast Asian countries launched high-profile joint military exercises this week with various major powers while leaders from these countries met in Jakarta for the ongoing ASEAN summit.

On Sunday, the Chinese and Thai navies kicked off the annual Blue Strike 2023 joint exercises that includes a number of advanced Chinese warships, submarines and hundreds of troops.

And in Indonesia, thousands of army soldiers from the U.S. and Australia took part in joint jungle training exercises with their Indonesian counterparts as part of Super Garuda 2023.

Also, this week, U.S., Japanese and Philippines navy forces conducted anti-submarine warfare drills followed by a first-ever joint sail in the South China Sea.

That joint sail between the U.S. and the Philippines navies definitely got a lot of attention in Beijing, where there's mounting anxiety over the increasingly close military ties between Washington and Manila.

Communist Party-run media, however, is trying to downplay the issue by showcasing the views of prominent scholars like Zhuo Hua from Beijing Foreign Studies University and Ding Duo from the China Academy of South China Sea Studies, who made the case in the Chinese-language edition of Global Times on Tuesday that the U.S. is an unreliable partner for the Philippines:

This marked the first time that Philippine and U.S. Navy ships crossed through the waters of the South China Sea west of Palawan Island in the Philippines, which is adjacent to the South China Sea's Spratly Islands.

This move by the United States and the Philippines is highly provocative and carries strong symbolic significance. Its purpose appears to be to disrupt ASEAN's stance on the South China Sea issue. Since the Marcos government came to power, the Philippines has taken a series of actions aligning itself closely with the United States, including joint military exercises and provocative actions near Thitu Island.

The joint maritime patrol in the South China Sea by the United States and the Philippines at this moment sends a signal of strengthening the U.S.-Philippines alliance to the outside world. Simultaneously, it conveys a message to ASEAN countries and may attempt to influence ASEAN's position on the South China Sea issue.

It's true that in the short term, the United States and the Philippines have found common interests and cooperation opportunities. However, as the objective dynamics of regional power evolve, their interests may eventually diverge when the balance of power shifts.

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? The optics of all this military firepower on display this week seem to convey the sober message that if diplomacy fails, then today's joint exercises could quickly become tomorrow's reality.

SUGGESTED READING:

• Global Times: What does it mean US-Philippines joint cruise in South China Sea ahead of ASEAN summit (in Chinese)
• Sydney Morning Herald: Australia, Philippines team up to deter Chinese ‘coercion’ in disputed waters by Matthew Knott

The United States joined a growing list of countries to reject China's territorial claims detailed in its new standard map that was published last week.

State Department Deputy Spokesperson Vedant Patel addressed the issues on Tuesday at the daily press briefing and said Beijing's claims are "unlawful" and called on China to settle territorial disputes in the South China Sea in accordance with the international law of the sea.

While U.S. criticism of China's controversial territorial claims was widely expected, the ferocity of the pushback against the map by Asian countries is more surprising, according to Prashanth Parameswaran, deputy head of research at the Washington, D.C.-based consulting firm BowerGroupAsia and author of the popular ASEANWONK newsletter:

It is rare to see such a series of quick coordinated statements among Southeast Asian states, with five countries issuing statements in the span of just four days.

While the Philippines and Vietnam have generally been the two more vocal South China Sea claimants in Southeast Asia, Malaysia, which has seen the issue be in the spotlight a few times already during Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s first year in office, was the first to issue a response.

Even Brunei, whose responses to China are often the quietest and the hardest to detect publicly among the four Southeast Asian claimant states, issued a statement of its own.

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? The timing of the map's release was just reckless in terms of ruining whatever positive vibe there was coming out of the BRICS summit in Johannesburg last week and it likely contributed to Xi Jinping's decision to stay home from both the ASEAN and G20 summits. 

SUGGESTED READING:

• South China Morning Post: US views China map claims over South China Sea, disputed Indian areas as ‘unlawful’: State Department by Igor Patrick
• The Diplomat: China’s New ‘Standard Map’ Does Not Mean What You Think It Means by Mark Raymond and David A. Welch

China dispatched a high-level Communist Party (CPC) emissary to Vietnam days before U.S. President Joe Biden is set to arrive when he is expected to upgrade diplomatic ties with Hanoi.

Liu Jianchao, head of the CPC's international liaison department, met with the General Secretary of Vietnam's Communist Party, Nguyễn Phú Trọng, on Tuesday.

The official readout of the meeting, according to Vietnamese state media, was rather bland with few details of what they talked about. However, the timing of the visit suggests that Hanoi wants to convey its assurances that Biden's visit is not intended to roil ties with Beijing.

Biden will make a stopover in Vietnam on his way home from the G20 summit in New Delhi and is expected to upgrade bilateral ties to a “strategic partnership,” or possibly even a “comprehensive strategic partnership” – the top tier in Vietnam’s diplomatic hierarchy and the same level that Hanoi currently has with Beijing.

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Vietnamese leaders have moved quickly this year to bolster diplomatic ties not only with the U.S. but also with a number of Asian neighbors in what is likely a hedge against China. So far this year, Hanoi has elevated relations with South Korea, Singapore and Australia, with Indonesia next.

SUGGESTED READING:

• South China Morning Post: How South China Sea moves by Beijing are sending Vietnam, others in region deeper into US embrace by Shi Jiangtao
• The Diplomat: Why Biden’s Visit to Vietnam Is a Triumph for the US by Hai Hong Nguyen

The Chinese ambassador to Niger, Jing Feng, met with the transition Prime Minister Ali Mahamane Lamine Zene on Monday and offered to serve as a mediator to help defuse the escalating political crisis in the West African country.

“The Chinese government intends to play the role of a mediator, with full respect for the regional countries, to find a political solution to this Nigerien crisis,” Jiang said.

But it's not clear if Jiang's offer will even be necessary now that it looks increasingly likely French forces will withdraw following talks with the French embassy in Niamey.

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? China is becoming increasingly confident in its abilities to serve as an international mediator following last March's successful reunion between Iran and Saudi Arabia that Beijing helped facilitate. In Niger, China is also well-positioned to make this kind of offer, given that its position there is very strong relative to those of other major (Western) powers that are under pressure.

SUGGESTED READING:

• Anadolu: China to mediate in Niger crisis by James Tasamba
• Bloomberg: Niger Junta Expects Rapid French Troop Withdrawal Amid Talks by Katarina Hoije and Samy Adghirni

Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen arrived in Eswatini on Tuesday for a three-day visit to mark the tiny landlocked country's 55th anniversary of its independence.

The visit is symbolically important given that the southern African kingdom is Taiwan's last diplomatic ally on the continent and one of only 13 in the world.

Normally when Tsai or other senior Taiwan officials travel abroad, China responds forcefully by insisting that the receiving country respect the One China Policy. But this time, it's different.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry has said nothing about Tsai's visit and even the embassy in Pretoria that oversees ties with Eswatini has remained surprisingly quiet. (REUTERS)

Russian President Vladimir Putin will reportedly travel to China to attend the Belt and Road Forum in October, his first overseas visit since the ICC issued a warrant for his arrest on alleged war crimes. The Kremlin confirmed the Russian leader will not travel to India for next month's G20 leaders summit. (BLOOMBERG)

Representatives and senior commanders from nearly 50 African countries are in Beijing this week for the third China-Africa Peace and Security forum that begins on Monday. Defense Minister Li Shangfu's keynote address will focus on integrating Africa into China's new Global Security Initiative. (CHINA MILITARY)

Nicaraguan beef will soon appear on supermarket shelves in China following the signing of the first-ever beef export agreement. The deal is widely seen as a precursor to a new free trade agreement that negotiators from both countries finalized last month but that has still to be ratified. Nicaragua re-established diplomatic ties with China in 2021. (100 NOTICIAS -- in Spanish)

Afghanistan is reportedly working with Huawei to install a wide-ranging surveillance system across the country in an effort to identify and target insurgents or terrorism activities, according to a person familiar with the discussions. Company officials purportedly reached a verbal agreement with the Interior Ministry on August 14th, the source said. (BLOOMBERG)

An unidentified Chinese company has been awarded a $2.7 billion contract to build the second phase of Iran’s Imam Khomeini International Airport, according to Saeed Chalandari, the CEO of the company managing the airport. He said Iran will pay for the project via a barter agreement using crude oil. (MEHR)

The Chinese battery metals firms Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt and PT Huali Nickel Indonesia signed a deal with the Brazilian mining company Vale to build a nickel processing plant in Indonesia. The plant will produce 60,000 tons of nickel and 5,000 tons of cobalt annually for use in battery manufacturing. It will start production in 2027. (CHINA DAILY)

China and Singapore will conduct joint military exercises from late August to mid-September, according to a statement by the Chinese Defense Ministry. The annual drills will take place in Singapore and will include close combat and hostage rescue exercises. (REUTERS)

IMF head Kristalina Georgieva will arrive in Beijing on Wednesday for three days of talks with senior Chinese leaders ahead of the upcoming G20 summit in New Delhi. Stepping upChina's participation in the IMF's Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable is expected to be high on the agenda. (BLOOMBERG)

U.S. President Joe Biden will make a one-day visit to Vietnam on September 10th on his way back from the G20 summit in India. It's widely expected the two countries will use the visit to upgrade diplomatic ties to a "strategic partnership." China on Tuesday downplayed the importance of the visit. (THE DIPLOMAT)

The Chinese Foreign Ministry issued a brief statement saying they’re closely following the reported coup in Gabon. Spokesperson Wang Wenbin said: “We call on relevant sides in the country to proceed from the fundamental interests of the nation and the people, resolve differences peacefully through dialogue, restore order at an early date, ensure the personal safety of President Ali Bongo Ondimba, and safeguard the larger interests of national peace, stability and development.” China has been a long-time ally of the Bongo dynasty. Bongo met with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a visit to Beijing in April. (CHINESE FOREIGN MINISTRY)

Kyrgyzstan will reportedly ban the Chinese-owned social media platform TikTok. Government officials accused the short-form video app of “causing addiction” among children and ruining their mental health. There has been no comment from TikTok or its parent company Bytedance. Meanwhile, TikTok is reportedly planning to set up content moderation facilities and a regional headquarters in Kenya amid calls for a similar ban there. (THE GUARDIAN NIGERIA)

There is $178 billion in untapped trade potential between China and the MENAT (Middle East, North Africa and Türkiye) region between now and 2027, according to a new report by China’s HSBC bank. The report is another indicator of the growing power of post-oil investment between the regions. Mark Wang, President and CEO of HSBC said: “There’s synergy between the two emerging markets with Chinese corporates bringing in expertise in digital innovation, climate tech and new business models, as MENAT's investor base, demand for renewables and a growing young population offer essential capital and market opportunities.” (ZAWYA)

The Indian government issued a formal diplomatic protest on Tuesday against China over the publication of Beijing's new official map that New Delhi claims includes large swathes of its territory.

The 2023 edition of the "standard map of China" that was officially released on Monday incorporates the disputed territories of Arunachal Pradesh and the Aksai China as part of Tibet.

Shortly after the map's publication, Indians across the political spectrum reacted on Tuesday with rare unity to express their outrage against China's territorial claims.

External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar said China's insistence on claiming those territories as its own is meaningless. "Making absurd claims does not make other people’s territories yours," he said in an interview with New Delhi TV.

Sanjay Raut, who leads the Marathi regionalist Shiv Sena (UBT) party, went even further in calling for "surgical strikes on China" in retaliation.

This latest controversy will likely undo whatever modest progress the two sides had made in recent weeks following a successful round of military talks at the border along with last week's brief encounter between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

In China, though, there was no media coverage of the angry Indian reaction to the new map, so most people are wholly unaware of this latest controversy that's bound to further roil ties between the two Asian rivals.

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? It's hard to tell if Chinese authorities released the map with the express intention to send a signal to the Indian government about its stance on the border issue or if the Ministry of Natural Resources published it largely unaware of the harsh response it would generate.

Remember that a lot of people in China do not have any understanding of the sensitivity of these territorial issues because that information is heavily censored. So, it's entirely possible the timing of the map's release so close to last week's Xi-Modi meeting was purely coincidental.

SUGGESTED READING:

• The Hindu: China releases new official map, showing territorial claims by Ananth Kirshnan
• News18: 'Absurd Claims, Doesn't Change Anything': Jaishankar Reacts As China Includes Arunachal in New Map

The Chinese government said it is "ready to work" with the new (old) Zimbabwean government and claimed that the controversial vote was conducted in "peaceful and orderly fashion."

Although Beijing did acknowledge some irregularities in last week's balloting, it called on the government to resolve those issues within the country's legal system and said that it would not interfere.

The Chinese response was opposite that of the United States, which expressed concern over the validity of the results.