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The Democratic Republic of the Congo is reportedly lobbying the U.S. for greater backing against incursions by the Rwandan-backed M23 militia in return for access to critical minerals. Recent press reports cited a classified letter by Aaron Poynton, an executive appointed by the DRC government to boost relations with the United States to Secretary of State Marco Rubio. It reportedly calls for a meeting with President Trump and the U.S. to arm and train the DRC army. It offers U.S. companies access to mineral concessions and a deep water port.

Meanwhile, Shukhrat Ibragimov, the new CEO of Eurasia Resources Group (a Kazakh mining giant deeply invested in the DRC’s strategic minerals sector,) recently said it is actively courting Chinese investment to expand its African and Asian operations.

“In 2023, China invested close to $900 billion into the alternative energy space, and if you compare that with anybody else, it’s probably the largest investment. There is no transition for us without China as China is the biggest consumer of minerals, and as suppliers, we must meet that demand,” he said in an interview in February.

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? It seems that the DRC’s position as an arena for geopolitical maneuvering is entering a new era due to its current conflict with Rwanda in the east. The two developments show that both U.S. and Chinese stakes could increase, which raises both the geopolitical heat and many questions about how (and if) the DRC will benefit.

The Chinese electric vehicle giant BYD raised $5.6 billion in the largest Hong Kong share sale in four years. The cash injection will boost BYD’s “capacity to further advance its technological capabilities and accelerate its overseas expansion,” according to the filing.

BYD already has localized production lines underway in Hungary, Brazil, and Türkiye and has announced plans for several more, including in Mexico. The latter’s future is currently uncertain due to trade tensions with the United States. Some of this expansion is driven by tariffs imposed by developing countries aimed at sparking local production.

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? In addition to boosting BYD’s position as the world’s largest EV maker, it cemented the key role of Middle Eastern investment in China’s EV sector. The UAE’s Al-Futtaim Group distributes BYD in the Middle East, and it used the sale to position itself as a key strategic investor in the company.

A new investigation by Reuters shows that the Trump administration's threat of tariffs is mostly successful with a small number of Latin American countries mainly exporting to the U.S., like Mexico and Colombia.

In contrast, most South American exports to the United States have remained flat over the last decade, while exports to China have doubled. Many of these are agricultural commodities that replicate what China imports from key Republican states.

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? This has a double implication. First, China is free to hit U.S. agriculture products with retaliatory tariffs because it has alternative supplies of meat, grains, and dairy. Second, it also weakens Trump's future threats to South America because of the shrinking relevance of the U.S. market to exporters.

U.S. tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, and Canada went into effect right after midnight on Tuesday. Citing a lack of action on restricting precursor chemicals used to make fentanyl, the U.S. added 10% on top of an already-imposed 10% tariff on Chinese imports, while those from Mexico and Canada got hit with a 25% tariff each.

China retaliated almost immediately with a set of tariffs designed to inflict distress among Trump’s core supporters in U.S. farming states. 10%-15% tariffs were imposed on a range of U.S. agricultural products and 25 firms were put under export and investment restrictions. U.S. chicken, wheat, cotton, corn, soybeans, beef, and dairy were some of the targeted products.

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Notably, China focused on agricultural commodities, sending the signal that what it buys from the MAGA heartland it can also source from the Belt and Road. The tit-for-tat tariffs will likely increase China’s imports from Global South agricultural producers, especially from South America and Southeast Asia. 

The Vice Chairman of Tanzania's ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi, Stephen Wasira, paid a courtesy call to the Chinese embassy on Sunday for talks with Beijing's envoy to Dar es Salaam Chen Mingjian.

The Chinese embassy did not release specific details of their discussions, but this, nonetheless, highlights the high priority that the Chinese government places on party-to-party diplomacy in Africa and other Global South regions.

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Chen's post on X about the meeting with Wasira is a reminder that Chinese diplomats are very different than their counterparts from other countries where the ambassador is an envoy of the government. Like all Chinese ambassadors, Chen has two equally important roles: one where she represents the Chinese government and the other as a representative of the Chinese Communist Party.

China is expected to target U.S. agricultural goods in its latest countermeasures against new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, according to the Communist Party-run newspaper Global Times.

Since China is the largest export market for U.S. farmers, any new agricultural tariffs from Beijing would be felt immediately by a key constituency of the U.S. president. At the same time, though, it could potentially be a boon for countries like South Africa, Brazil, Vietnam, and other agricultural exporters that Chinese food buyers will turn to fill the void left by U.S. producers.

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Chinese purchases of grains, meats, and other commodities from South America have grown significantly since the first administration, and that will likely pick up pace again now. The bottom line is that the Chinese government does not want to be dependent on key foodstuffs for people and livestock from a country that says it's an enemy.

A bipartisan group of lawmakers in the U.S. Senate is set to introduce new legislation on Monday aimed at cracking down on Chinese companies that shift production to other countries to circumvent tariffs.

The bill, if passed, would allow the Commerce Department to target specific products from individual countries that it deems are being used by Chinese companies to skirt U.S. import duties. There are also other provisions to strengthen countermeasures against Chinese dumping and language that challenges the Belt and Road Initiative more broadly.

The U.S. House of Representatives will also see a companion bill raised.

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Together with the news that Mexico is going to mirror U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports, this legislation is indicative of just how determined the U.S. is to constrict Chinese trade around the world.

In particular, countries like Vietnam that have seen a surge of Chinese FDI in recent months should be very concerned that this legislation will be used to target Chinese transshipments from those markets.

A Chinese court sentenced four people to life imprisonment for their role in running cross-border scam operations in Southeast Asia. The sentences come as ongoing crackdowns in collaboration with Thai and Myanmarese authorities free hundreds of trafficking victims forced into working at scam centers in Myanmar.

Thousands of freed scam workers are now stuck in limbo. Two Myanmarese ethnic militias – the Karen National Army (KNA) and the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA) – are reportedly holding about 7,000 freed workers but Thai authorities are far behind in facilitating their return. The true number of people still stuck in scam compounds could in the tens of thousands. The vast majority are Chinese nationals.

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? The growing security cooperation between Thailand and China sparked by the crisis is advancing broader law enforcement integration via Chinese President Xi Jinping’s signature Global Security Initiative and could expand the reach of Chinese policing in Thailand and beyond.