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China's top diplomat Wang Yi conducted another one of his signature rounds of speed diplomacy with foreign ministers from at least nine African countries on the sidelines of a ministerial gathering this week in central Hunan province.

Specific details of the discussions between Wang and the various foreign ministers were not released but the substance of those talks may not be as important as the optics.

The body language and overall demeanor of the visiting ministers were effusive, signaling their desire to foster even closer ties with Beijing while also seemingly rejecting the U.S. campaign to isolate China.

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? While the U.S., UK, and EU all struggle to implement new Africa policies, the message from Changsha this week was that China remains the continent's most dependable international partner.

This is equally important for China, which seeks to leverage its deep ties with African countries to implement new, non-Western international governance norms — part of a broader effort to challenge the current U.S.-led world order.

Last year, in January, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni called on China to do more to open its vast market to African goods by removing trade tariffs for the entire continent.

This week, Museveni got what he asked for when China removed all import duties for goods coming from 53 African countries (not Eswatini, which still maintains ties with Taiwan), prompting the question of what the Ugandan leader and his counterparts will do to take advantage of this new privilege. 

The main problem is that the vast majority of African countries do not produce much of what China needs, which explains why exports from the continent to China last year totalled a meager $117 billion — mostly from just three countries (Angola, South Africa, and the DR Congo) that sell large quantities of oil and strategic minerals.

WHAT ABOUT FOOD? The vast majority of agriculture in most African countries is made up of smallholder farms that are poorly suited to provide the industrial scale that China gets from other food suppliers in Brazil, Russia, Europe, and the United States.

Furthermore, there is an ethical issue here as well, since Africa imports an estimated $50 billion of food each year, a figure that will likely increase substantially due to climate change. So, for China to absorb large quantities of agriculture from African suppliers will only add to the continent's growing food insecurity.

SO, IT'S PROBABLY GOING TO BE MORE EXTRACTIVES: Since Kenya, Uganda, or Nigeria are not going to sell the kinds of manufactured goods that China already produces, and it's not going to be large-scale agriculture, then the most likely sectors for growth are going to be timber, minerals, oil, and other extractives.

While there's no doubt a large market in China for these raw materials, further dependence on the extractive trade is not going to substantially change the economic dynamics in most African countries, given that extractives do not generate significant employment or lead to wealth distribution beyond a small group of ruling elites.

China will remove all trade tariffs on imported goods from 53 African countries in a move that starkly contrasts with U.S. President Donald Trump's pro-tariff agenda.

Foreign Minister Wang Yi announced the policy on Wednesday at the conclusion of a gathering of ministerial coordinators for the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) that took place in the central Chinese city of Changsha.

The new initiative only applies to those African countries that maintain diplomatic ties with Beijing; therefore, it excludes the tiny landlocked kingdom of Eswatini, which recognizes Taiwan.

In many ways, this announcement is more symbolic than substantive, given that 33 African countries already had zero-tariff access to the Chinese market as part of a program introduced earlier this year to grant trade preferences to the world's least developed countries.

Geopolitics also played a role in China's calculation to unveil this policy now as was evident in the final joint communiqué that specifically called out Washington for upending the international trading system. “We call on all countries, the United States in particular, to return to the right track of resolving trade disputes through consultation,” the statement said.

Two-way China-Africa trade increased by 12.4% to $134 billion in the first five months of the year, buoyed largely by a surge of Chinese exports.

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Wednesday's announcement is significant for two very important reasons:

1. It shows that Africa still matters to China. While the U.S. is dismantling large parts of its African engagement, blocking immigration and even picking fights with countries like South Africa, China aims to demonstrate that the continent remains crucial to its global agenda.

1. The removal of tariffs is intended to demonstrate to Africa and the world that China will be the guardian of the free and open trading system that the U.S. is doing so much to disrupt.

Kazakhstan announced on Wednesday that China's President Xi Jinping would visit the country next week for a summit alongside former Soviet Central Asian partners.

Xi is expected to arrive in Astana on June 16 for bilateral meetings before the Central Asia-China summit the following day, Kazakhstan's presidency said.

The heads of state of Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan will also attend.

It will be the second such summit, two years after the first.

China is in competition with Russia, the former colonial power in Central Asia, for influence in the vast region, which is almost as large as the European Union but with a total population of just 80 million people.

Central Asia is an important strategic target for China in its Belt and Road initiative, which uses huge infrastructure investments as a political and diplomatic lever.

The region is rich in natural resources, and Chinese investment could facilitate trade with Europe.

The five Central Asian republics have been trying to reduce their dependence on Russia and increase partnerships with other countries.

That move has accelerated since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.

Representatives from one of China's largest weapons manufacturers paid a courtesy call to the head of the Ghanaian navy earlier this month to discuss "potential avenues for future collaboration."

Fang Xu, head of the Africa department at the China National Aero-Technology Import & Export Corporation (CATIC) met with Chief of the Naval Staff of the Ghana Navy, Rear Admiral Godwin Livinus Bessing, at the Naval Headquarters in Accra to pitch the company's latest defense technology solutions for Ghana's small naval force.

CATIC, maker of the J-10CE fighter jet, is one of China's most prominent state-owned arms companies that's increasingly looking to new markets in Africa as part of a new global expansion drive.

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? Last year, China displaced Russia as Africa's largest weapons supplier, and there's no indication that trend is going to change anytime soon, as evidenced by Fang's visit to the Ghanaian Navy HQ in June.

West Africa, in particular, is becoming a major destination for Chinese arms. Last month, Nigeria signed a major service deal with China's Norinco that also included local production of military-grade ammunition.

China imported a record 13.9 metric tons of soybeans in May, a 129% increase over the previous month, as buyers moved aggressively to bulk up on inventories in anticipation of rising prices brought on by the global tariff war.

Monday's trade report by China's General Administration of Customs also confirmed that Chinese soybean importers are accelerating their shift away from U.S. suppliers.

Even though the crop remains the top U.S. agricultural export to China, volumes are declining fast as China seeks to end its dependency on U.S. food imports.

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? There's a misplaced sense of optimism among many farmers in the U.S. that once Washington and Beijing reach a trade deal of some kind, then Chinese soybean buyers will return. The data shows that the Chinese are seemingly determined to stop buying from the U.S. permanently and source more from countries in South America, Russia, Europe, and Africa.

The pressure on Vietnam in the escalating trade war between the U.S. and China went up significantly on Wednesday when Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick made it very clear that eliminating all trade tariffs on U.S. goods will not be enough to satisfy the Trump administration.

In an animated exchange with Louisiana Republican Senator John Kennedy, Lutnick said the fundamental problem with Vietnam is that it's serving as a transshipment hub for tens of billions of dollars of Chinese goods that are then exported to the United States:

"Vietnam exports $125 billion to us, and imports from us $12.5 billion (he said "million" but the actual figure is in billions)... but where do they get it from?

They buy $90 billion from China, then they mark it up and send it to us. They're just a pathway for China to us!"

While Lutnick's figures were largely correct, he actually understated the value of Chinese exports to Vietnam last year, which totaled $144 billion, a 30% increase from 2023. 

Lutnick's figures for Vietnamese exports to the U.S. were also off a bit. Rather than the $125 billion that he stated in his testimony, the actual export total for 2024 was significantly higher at $137 billion, according to U.S. Trade Representative data.

Lutnick's tough stance on Vietnam follows a report from Reuters this week that cited unnamed U.S. officials demanding that Hanoi cut its reliance on Chinese imports if it wants to settle with Washington.

Neither the Vietnamese nor the Chinese governments have responded to Lutnick's latest remarks.

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? The Vietnamese are effectively cornered right now. Although Vietnam sells more than twice as much to the U.S. as it does to China, it would be devastating for their export-dependent economy if they acceded to U.S. demands to cut off imports from its northern neighbor.

Conversely, if they don't make major concessions to the U.S., the consequences could be catastrophic if the Trump administration follows through on the threat to impose a 46% tariff on Vietnamese goods.

It doesn't appear that the Vietnamese will be able to negotiate their way out of this by simply offering a tariff reduction or gifts for the Trump family. Lutnick and others seem determined to compel the Vietnamese to undertake radical changes to their economy.

However, Vietnamese officials must be cautious because China's powerful Commerce Ministry has also made it clear that it will retaliate "if any party seeks a deal at the expense of China" and stated that it would retaliate "should that situation arise."