The News Feed is curated by CGSP’s editors in Asia and Africa.
Eric Olander
Senior African policy officials in the White House and State Department have been adamant that this week's African leaders summit is about Africa... not China. But the international news media doesn't appear to see it that way -- framing the story as the latest installment of the escalating competition between the two rival powers:
The administration's difficulties in evolving its narrative on Africa policy to be more than just about competition with China was on full display at two separate pre-summit press briefings in recent days, one organized by the White House and the other by Pentagon. On both occasions, the literal first question posed to the policymakers was about China, not Africa:
Eric Olander
Four countries in Asia have been identified by researchers in the United States as the most likely places where China will set up a new military outpost.
The findings by a trio of scholars at the U.S. government-supported national security think tank, the RAND Corporation, challenge the Pentagon-fueled narrative that a country in Africa is poised to house the PLA's second overseas base after Djibouti.
The researchers applied 17 different criteria to determine whether a country would meet Chinese strategic priorities sufficiently to justify building a new base and if it would actually be feasible to do so. Based on their findings, they concluded that the countries with the highest probability were Pakistan, Bangladesh, Cambodia, and Myanmar.
The team also identified fourteen other states, all in Asia or the Middle East, that were deemed to be prospective candidates for a new base based on these desirability/feasibility filters. Notably, Equatorial Guinea, the country presumed by the Pentagon to be the favored choice for a new PLA base, was listed only as a "medium" likelihood.
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Eric Olander
China's state-run Xinhua news agency launched a new online portal that is ostensibly intended to serve as a hub for Belt and Road information in Africa.
The new site appears to be little more than a repackaging of Xinhua's existing editorial output combined with official transcripts produced by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Eric Olander
Arab media showed optimism toward the China Arab Summit which kicks off Friday in Saudi Arabia. Only a few hours before its kick-off, Arab media says the summit reflects the “strong position” that Arab countries hold within the new global system.
Director of Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, Dr. Mohammed Fayez Farahat, told the Sada Al-Balad TV channel and website that the summit carries great importance in terms of timing as it comes as part of a “new world order” that highlights the importance of the Arab region, after the outbreak of the war between Russia and Ukraine.
Farahat also mentions that the Arab region is moving towards a new global system that is no longer built on multipolarity but rather on multilateral relations.
Sada al-Balad website also quotes political expert Ahmed Sayed Khabir as saying that the Chinese presence in the Arab region is part of the international competition over the Middle East and Gulf area, which is a major provider of energy. He explains that China is now in an “economic recovery” phase and realizes the region's importance as “an attractive market for Chinese investments.”
In his column published by the Egyptian Al-Masry al-Yowm website, writer Abdel-Latif al-Manawi says that China “needs Arab countries as much as they need it.” Al-Menawi explains that the summit would provide mutual benefits for both parties. “As the largest importer of crude oil in the world, Arab countries provide half of its imports, accounting for 17.4% of the country’s total oil imports in 2021. There’s also no doubt that Arab countries need China too, which is their largest trading partner,” he says.
Dar al-Hilal website highlighted the optimism of the Director of the Arab Center for Political Studies, Dr. Mohammed Sadiq Ismail, over the summit. Ismail says the summit would “change the world’s view of Arab countries” as it shows that the region’s relations with major powers are now based on “mutual strategic partnership.”
The United States announced it will increase its military force presence in northern Australia in response to "China's dangerous and coercive actions" in the Asia-Pacific region. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on Tuesday the Pentagon will step up troop rotations that will also include the deployment of added naval power, fighter jets, and heavy bombers. (REUTERS)
Washington's top diplomat in India curtly brushed aside Chinese criticism of last week's joint U.S.-Indian military exercises that took place near the Chinese border. "It's none of their business," said Chargé d'Affaires Elizabeth Jones in response to Chinese Foreign Ministry comments that the exercises violated two agreements with India. The External Affairs Ministry in New Delhi backed Washington's position and said the exercises had nothing to do with China. (HINDUSTAN TIMES)
The Indian and Vietnamese navies wrapped up a joint naval exercise on Saturday - another sign of both countries' ambivalence about China's growing naval power in the Western Pacific. The Indian Navy sent a destroyer and a submarine chaser to participate in the exercise that took place in Vietnamese waters. Both India and Vietnam are embroiled in longstanding territorial disputes with China. (VN EXPRESS)
Afghanistan, as well as nine lesser-developed countries from Africa, are now the latest states to enjoy near-duty-free access to China. Beijing said that as of December 1st, those countries will not have to pay tariffs on 98% of their exports to China. Back in September, China provided similar waivers to 16 other LDCs, most from Africa and Oceania. (XINHUA -- in Chinese)
China is buying more corn from Brazil, pushing down pricier U.S. exports. Brazilian corn shipments to China are expected to pass 1 million tons this year. Meanwhile, sales of U.S. corn are down by 33% over the same period. Climate change is a key factor, with a dry Mississippi river hampering transport routes and pushing prices higher. (BLOOMBERG)
The Chinese solar panel maker LONGi Green Energy Technology Co said it will provide evidence it is complying with U.S. laws, after it and three other Chinese solar companies were slapped with import duties. LONGi was accused of trying to dodge American tariffs by finishing products in Southeast Asia. (REUTERS)
Germany sees India as a partner for economic and political cooperation, but not as a replacement for China. So says German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, who remarked at a press conference with her Indian counterpart that: "With India, we are connected not just through a partnership in the economic sense, ... rather we are connected with India through a values partnership." (REUTERS)
Two of South Korea's largest conglomerates, LG and Samsung, announced $6 billion of new manufacturing investment in Vietnam, the latest evidence major electronics companies are seeking to end their reliance on China. Samsung Electronics said it will raise its total investment in Vietnam from $18 billion to $20 billion, while LG plans to spend $4 billion to build a smartphone camera production hub in the Southeast Asian country. (REUTERS)
The Indian government's ties with Chinese electronics companies frayed further this week when tax authorities blocked mobile phone giant Vivo from exporting 27,000 devices. Authorities claim the Chinese company improperly declared the models and the value of the phones that were intended to be shipped to markets elsewhere in Asia. Huawei, Xiaomi, and other Chinese tech companies are under investigation for alleged currency fraud and other irregularities. (BLOOMBERG)
Chinese trade slumped to its lowest level in two and a half years, worsened by COVID restrictions at home and falling global demand due to a coming recession. Exports shrank by 9% to $296.1 billion compared to 2021, and imports by 10.9% to $226.2 billion. The fall was worse than predicted, likely an indicator that high-interest rates are seriously affecting the purchases of Chinese goods around the world. At present, the ASEAN region remains China’s biggest trade partner. (ASSOCIATED PRESS)
Today and tomorrow China’s outgoing Premier Li Keqiang is meeting with the heads of the world’s six most important economic governing bodies. The so-called “6+1” roundtable will include the heads of the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the World Trade Organization, the International Labor Organization, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and the Financial Stability Board. They will discuss boosting global economic recovery and ‘building an open world economy.’ (CHINESE MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS)
Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar said India will ‘not tolerate’ what he framed as unilateral attempts by China to shift the disputed ‘Line of Actual Control’ (LAC) delineating the border between the two countries. He accused China of massing troops on the border, which he said keeps the bilateral relationship ‘abnormal.’ Meanwhile India announced in November it will build infrastructure to house 22,000 troops and 450 tanks along the disputed zone. (HINDUSTAN TIMES)
Eric Olander
While Chinese government spokespeople have called President Xi Jinping’s visit to Saudi Arabia ‘epoch-making,’ they’ve been a lot vaguer about the agenda for his meetings.
However, Tang Tianbo, a researcher at the Middle East Institute of the Chinese Institute of Contemporary International Relations, argued that a series of factors are aligning to make this visit particularly notable.
First, the economic relationship between the two countries is historically strong due to increased oil purchases. Second, they’re seeing eye to eye on China’s core issues, including ‘China's right to take counter-terrorism and de-extremism initiatives to maintain national security’ (code for its anti-Uyghur measures in Xinjiang.) Third, China’s assiduous diplomacy over the last few years has strengthened its relationships in the region.
He argued that these factors make for a strengthened Sino-Saudi relationship with a global impact:
The China-Middle East expert Jonathan Fulton complained on Twitter this week that many editors at major Western news outlets seem to have pre-decided their framing of Xi Jinping’s visit to Saudi Arabia. Rather than focusing on what the two countries want and where they’re coming from, some Western publications seem determined to frame the visit in terms of the United States.
A look at the headlines chosen by key Western news outlets seems to confirm this view:
Preparations are ramping up for next week’s U.S.-Africa leaders’ summit. 13-15 December will see leaders from 49 countries, as well as numerous businesspeople, civil society envoys, and journalists descending on Washington DC to attend the first such event since the Obama era.
Washington’s two most senior Africa-focused officials, Assistant Secretary of State for Africa, Molly Phee and Judd Devermont, the Senior Director for African Affairs in the National Security Council, led a wide-ranging call with African journalists in the run-up to the summit.
It was notable that China didn’t come up at all during the call. Unlike the Trump era, the Biden administration has been careful to avoid framing Africa as an arena for its competition with China and to avoid the optics of making African leaders choose between China and the U.S. Rather, Phee emphasized that Washington is seeking to re-energize its relationship with the continent: “We work very hard to make sure that the United States defines our relationship with Africa on African terms.”
No such reticence in Beijing: the state-owned nationalist outlet Global Times has already published an article dismissing the summit as revealing the “consistent duplicity of US policy toward Africa.” It says that the U.S. lacks coherent African initiatives and that African countries will “see through” these overtures.
Read the full transcript of the press call on the China Global South Project website
Eric Olander
Eric Olander
Eric Olander
Eric Olander
Arab and regional press widely focused on the China-Arab summit scheduled this week in Saudi Arabia, highlighting its importance as a “turning point in the history of Sino-Arab relations.”
Several writers shared their thoughts about the significance of the summit, saying that it supports the participants’ attempts to diversify their partnerships and to form new political alliances.
Here is an overview of the most important points discussed by Arab/regional press:
Arab newspapers have indicated the desire of Saudi Arabia, its Gulf allies, and China to diversify partnerships to serve their economic and security interests.
In his article on the Egyptian Al-Ahram newspaper website, Dr. Ahmed El-Sayed Ahmed sheds light on the significance of the US-Chinese competition over the Middle East and Gulf region, explaining that countries of the region handle this conflict by adopting a rational foreign policy aimed at providing multiple sources of income, economic and armament deals. In his article, he explains: “This international competition in the region reflects the importance and rationality of the foreign policy adopted by Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, as they adopt a neutral stance aimed at enriching their economic and strategic partnerships with the world’s top powers, without siding with one country against another, but rather benefiting from cooperating with all parties.”
On the Al-Riyadh newspaper website, writer Khalid bin-Ali Al-Matrafi says that Arab countries value Chinese diplomacy that creates partnerships based on “power and friendship.” Al-Matrafi explains that China’s public policy serves the Arab interest in building a multilateral global community. He adds that besides China’s growing need for energy, Sino-Arab relations are being built through realizing common human values and the desire to secure mutual interests.
In its coverage of the summit, the regional press also highlighted the importance of forming strong alliances between China and Arab countries in line with such difficult global developments. Shaher Al-Shaher echoes this sentiment in his article on the Al-Mayadeen website, saying that the Chinese president’s visit to Saudi Arabia is not only expected to have remarkable outcomes in terms of economic relations but also would increase China’s involvement in a number of security-related issues in the region. He explains: “Beijing can play an important role because it’s the one country that everybody likes.”
Shaher also says: “Beijing is not keen on getting involved in political issues. However, it is now forced to do so to protect its economic and commercial interests in the region, which will remain in danger if there’s no political or military umbrella to protect them.” “At some point, China will have to stop thinking like a trader whose only goal is to find a customer and to start creating real partnerships in the fields of tourism, culture, economics, science, medicine, technology and others,” he added.
On the Egyptian website Al-Masry al-Youm, writer Mohammed Kamal said in his column that Sino-Arab relations stem from mutual economic interests. He explains: “In light of the drop in importance and volume of Arab oil exports to the US market, China became the top importer of oil. It has also become a major investor and trading partner for many Arab countries, which in return have become part of the Chinese “Belt and Road” initiative.
Meanwhile, the Anadolu Agency stressed the importance of forming Chinese-Arab political alliances, explaining that China “wants to make sure it has the support of Arabs during any future conflict with the United States over Taiwan. It also hopes that Arab countries would turn a blind eye to what is happening to the Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang in exchange for more investments and loans.”
This weekend saw the inauguration of the Gouina Hydroelectric dam and Malinguina hydropower station in Mali. Funded by the China Exim Bank and built by PowerChina, the facilities form part of a transfrontier hydroelectric system linking Mali, Senegal, and Mauritania.
The system is expected to add 140MW to the grid. However, there are some questions about the future viability of hydro-energy in Africa following the announcement that Zimbabwe and Zambia are facing rolling blackouts due to low water levels in the Kariba dam. Mali and the wider Sahel have faced ongoing droughts exacerbated by the global climate collapse.
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Chinese President Xi Jinping will reportedly travel to Saudi Arabia this week for a state meeting and to attend the inaugural China-Arab Summit. This is a particularly important visit as Xi returns to in-person diplomacy because Saudi-U.S. relations are quite frosty amid wrangles over oil prices in relation to the Ukraine crisis.
Saudi Arabia has expressed interest in upgrading its membership in the Chinese-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization to observer status, a step towards full membership. The summits are important occasions for Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to assert his leadership and for China to cement its growing prominence in the Middle East amid perceptions of a U.S. pivot away from the region.
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Fifteen years ago, Africa supplied a third of China's imported oil and was a key recipient of foreign investment beyond its near abroad in east Asia.
Today, a large portion of that energy procurement has shifted to countries in the Persian Gulf that now also attract a disproportionate share of Chinese outbound FDI.
Eric Olander
The White House is working hard to make sure that China does not become a topic of conversation at next week's U.S.-Africa leaders summit that will take place in Washington, D.C.
“Our goal is not to center our conversation on competition or rivalry with these other countries; that’s not the best way to advance U.S. interests and our shared goals with Africans,” a senior White House official told Foreign Policy.
This may come as a surprise given the enthusiasm among many senior U.S. officials for criticizing China in Asia, the Pacific Island Countries, and beyond.
But in Africa, the Biden administration has sought to downplay the narrative that the U.S. and China are locked in some kind of competition. In contrast to the Trump administration's Prosper Africa strategy which focused largely on confronting China's growing influence on the continent, the current administration didn't mention China once by name in its latest strategy for Africa, which was released in August.
Some 50 African leaders have been invited to attend next week's summit which will take place from Tuesday to Thursday.
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Eric Olander
Eric Olander
Environmentalists have warned for years that southern Africa's Chinese-financed hydroelectric building binge would eventually collide with the reality that the region doesn't have enough water.
Officials at the Zambezi River Authority that runs the Kariba Dam announced power deliveries to customers in both Zimbabwe and Zambia will be cut beginning next Thursday. The dam, jointly owned by Zambia and Zimbabwe, has the capacity to generate 1,050 megawatts but will output just 300 megawatts.
The dam “no longer has any usable water to continue undertaking power generation operations,” said the authority’s chief executive officer, Munyaradzi Munodawafa, in a letter to the Zimbabwe Power Company.
The Kariba Dam is one of a number of Chinese-backed hydroelectric facilities spread across southern Africa that have become increasingly risky in this new era of climate change. In 2017, according to AidData, the China Exim Bank provided a $315 million loan to expand the Kariba Dam.
Chinese state-run media outlets are trying their best to put a positive spin on the story by refuting earlier reports that the facility would be shut down entirely.
What's at stake if these power stations don't have enough water to operate? In addition to the obvious problems associated with load shedding that serves as a drag on economic growth, if these power stations aren't operating, then they also aren't generating the revenue needed to repay the Chinese loans for these dams.
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Eric Olander
Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari led a groundbreaking ceremony for the new Chinese-financed headquarters of the West African regional organization ECOWAS.
The new $32 million facility will be entirely paid for by the Chinese government and mostly built by Chinese contractors. Sunday's event comes one week after Zimbabwe's new parliament building opened, also wholly paid for by China.
There are at least 186 government buildings in Africa, including the African Union and the African Centers for Disease Control headquarters in Addis Ababa, that have been paid for by China, according to research by Heritage Foundation analyst Joshua Meservey. (CHANNELSTV)
Eric Olander
Eric Olander
Eric Olander
Xi Jinping’s third term will likely see the re-energizing and reshaping of China’s external relationships after its COVID lockdown. But how will China’s political engagement with Africa evolve?
In a new paper Paul Nantulya, a research associate at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies in Washington DC, identifies three trends to watch:
Read Paul Nantulya's full paper on the Africa Center for Strategic Studies website
The International Monetary Fund’s head of strategy, Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, will travel to Beijing next week for meetings with Chinese officials as part of a push for progress on Zambia’s debt restructuring.
This comes as Zambia's Finance Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane told Reuters that his government hopes to complete the restructuring of its $15 billion of external debt by the end of the first quarter next year.
Musokotwane said his government is “in active engagement” with China, its largest bilateral creditor, to move the process forward. Beijing meanwhile requested further clarification of the terms underlying Zambia’s restructuring deal with the IMF.
Chinese foot-dragging isn’t Zambia’s only problem. A large share of its debt is to Western commercial lenders like BlackRock, which has been a major block to progress.
Pazarbasioglu said she was heartened by Glencore’s recent participation in Chad’s restructuring process that “even the most difficult private sector participants” will eventually play ball.
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Djibouti this week reportedly suspended debt repayments to its two major creditors, China and Kuwait, due to a major increase in debt servicing costs likely caused by interest rate hikes and other external factors this year. A quick gander at this table, tweeted by the Africa-China expert Thierry Pairault, shows that one creditor is somewhat more 'major' than the others...
China’s COVID-related shutdowns and protests are hitting South African businesses. The Johannesburg Chamber of Commerce and Industry (JCCI) said the disruptions compounded earlier delays on the SA side.
“China is responsible for so much of the products we consume. Inputs in our own manufacturing, sale and imports, all of the unrest does make it difficult for companies to operate. They are struggling as it is difficult to get the container ships to South Africa,” says JCCI Vice President Duncan Bonnet.
Read the full article on the South African Broadcasting Corporation's website
China’s Hunan province cemented its role as a hub for African agricultural trade via a recent matchmaking meeting to team up major Chinese fruit buyers with key African producers like South Africa and Kenya. It is an example of the innovative ways Hunan is boosting trade, including through live auctions, a cacao trading center and e-commerce initiatives.
Read the full article on the China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo WeChat page (in Chinese)
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