Four countries in Asia have been identified by researchers in the United States as the most likely places where China will set up a new military outpost.
The findings by a trio of scholars at the U.S. government-supported national security think tank, the RAND Corporation, challenge the Pentagon-fueled narrative that a country in Africa is poised to house the PLA's second overseas base after Djibouti.
The researchers applied 17 different criteria to determine whether a country would meet Chinese strategic priorities sufficiently to justify building a new base and if it would actually be feasible to do so. Based on their findings, they concluded that the countries with the highest probability were Pakistan, Bangladesh, Cambodia, and Myanmar.
The team also identified fourteen other states, all in Asia or the Middle East, that were deemed to be prospective candidates for a new base based on these desirability/feasibility filters. Notably, Equatorial Guinea, the country presumed by the Pentagon to be the favored choice for a new PLA base, was listed only as a "medium" likelihood.
What Makes a Country Desirable and Feasible to Host a Chinese Military Base?
- DESIRABILITY: "The desirability dimension of our framework include the military utility of a potential host nation, its utility for protecting China’s economic interests, and low or acceptable political or other risks to China of basing forces in the country."
- FEASIBILITY: "The feasibility dimension of our framework highlights the potential host nation regime’s alignment with the People’s Republic of China, China’s influence in the country, and potential obstacles in China’s relationship with the country."
SUGGESTED READING:
- RAND Corporation: China's Global Basing Ambitions -- Defense Implications for the United States by Cristina L. Garafola, Stephen Watts and Kristin J. Leuschner
- Stars and Stripes: Rand report names four countries where China may seek to build military bases by Seth Robson













