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Four countries in Asia have been identified by researchers in the United States as the most likely places where China will set up a new military outpost.

The findings by a trio of scholars at the U.S. government-supported national security think tank, the RAND Corporation, challenge the Pentagon-fueled narrative that a country in Africa is poised to house the PLA's second overseas base after Djibouti.

The researchers applied 17 different criteria to determine whether a country would meet Chinese strategic priorities sufficiently to justify building a new base and if it would actually be feasible to do so. Based on their findings, they concluded that the countries with the highest probability were Pakistan, Bangladesh, Cambodia, and Myanmar.

The team also identified fourteen other states, all in Asia or the Middle East, that were deemed to be prospective candidates for a new base based on these desirability/feasibility filters. Notably, Equatorial Guinea, the country presumed by the Pentagon to be the favored choice for a new PLA base, was listed only as a "medium" likelihood.

What Makes a Country Desirable and Feasible to Host a Chinese Military Base?

• DESIRABILITY: "The desirability dimension of our framework include the military utility of a potential host nation, its utility for protecting China’s economic interests, and low or acceptable political or other risks to China of basing forces in the country."

• FEASIBILITY: "The feasibility dimension of our framework highlights the potential host nation regime’s alignment with the People’s Republic of China, China’s influence in the country, and potential obstacles in China’s relationship with the country."

SUGGESTED READING:

• RAND Corporation: China's Global Basing Ambitions -- Defense Implications for the United States by Cristina L. Garafola, Stephen Watts and Kristin J. Leuschner
• Stars and Stripes: Rand report names four countries where China may seek to build military bases by Seth Robson

China's state-run Xinhua news agency launched a new online portal that is ostensibly intended to serve as a hub for Belt and Road information in Africa. 

The new site appears to be little more than a repackaging of Xinhua's existing editorial output combined with official transcripts produced by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

The United States announced it will increase its military force presence in northern Australia in response to "China's dangerous and coercive actions" in the Asia-Pacific region. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on Tuesday the Pentagon will step up troop rotations that will also include the deployment of added naval power, fighter jets, and heavy bombers. (REUTERS)

Washington's top diplomat in India curtly brushed aside Chinese criticism of last week's joint U.S.-Indian military exercises that took place near the Chinese border. "It's none of their business," said Chargé d'Affaires Elizabeth Jones in response to Chinese Foreign Ministry comments that the exercises violated two agreements with India. The External Affairs Ministry in New Delhi backed Washington's position and said the exercises had nothing to do with China. (HINDUSTAN TIMES)

The Indian and Vietnamese navies wrapped up a joint naval exercise on Saturday - another sign of both countries' ambivalence about China's growing naval power in the Western Pacific. The Indian Navy sent a destroyer and a submarine chaser to participate in the exercise that took place in Vietnamese waters. Both India and Vietnam are embroiled in longstanding territorial disputes with China. (VN EXPRESS)

Afghanistan, as well as nine lesser-developed countries from Africa, are now the latest states to enjoy near-duty-free access to China.  Beijing said that as of December 1st, those countries will not have to pay tariffs on 98% of their exports to China. Back in September, China provided similar waivers to 16 other LDCs, most from Africa and Oceania. (XINHUA -- in Chinese)

China is buying more corn from Brazil, pushing down pricier U.S. exports. Brazilian corn shipments to China are expected to pass 1 million tons this year. Meanwhile, sales of U.S. corn are down by 33% over the same period. Climate change is a key factor, with a dry Mississippi river hampering transport routes and pushing prices higher. (BLOOMBERG)

The Chinese solar panel maker LONGi Green Energy Technology Co said it will provide evidence it is complying with U.S. laws, after it and three other Chinese solar companies were slapped with import duties. LONGi was accused of trying to dodge American tariffs by finishing products in Southeast Asia. (REUTERS)

Germany sees India as a partner for economic and political cooperation, but not as a replacement for China. So says German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, who remarked at a press conference with her Indian counterpart that: "With India, we are connected not just through a partnership in the economic sense, ... rather we are connected with India through a values partnership." (REUTERS)

Two of South Korea's largest conglomerates, LG and Samsung, announced $6 billion of new manufacturing investment in Vietnam, the latest evidence major electronics companies are seeking to end their reliance on China.  Samsung Electronics said it will raise its total investment in Vietnam from $18 billion to $20 billion, while LG plans to spend $4 billion to build a smartphone camera production hub in the Southeast Asian country. (REUTERS)

The Indian government's ties with Chinese electronics companies frayed further this week when tax authorities blocked mobile phone giant Vivo from exporting 27,000 devices. Authorities claim the Chinese company improperly declared the models and the value of the phones that were intended to be shipped to markets elsewhere in Asia. Huawei, Xiaomi, and other Chinese tech companies are under investigation for alleged currency fraud and other irregularities. (BLOOMBERG)

Chinese trade slumped to its lowest level in two and a half years, worsened by COVID restrictions at home and falling global demand due to a coming recession. Exports shrank by 9% to $296.1 billion compared to 2021, and imports by 10.9% to $226.2 billion. The fall was worse than predicted, likely an indicator that high-interest rates are seriously affecting the purchases of Chinese goods around the world. At present, the ASEAN region remains China’s biggest trade partner. (ASSOCIATED PRESS)

Today and tomorrow China’s outgoing Premier Li Keqiang is meeting with the heads of the world’s six most important economic governing bodies. The so-called “6+1” roundtable will include the heads of the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the World Trade Organization, the International Labor Organization, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and the Financial Stability Board. They will discuss boosting global economic recovery and ‘building an open world economy.’ (CHINESE MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS)

Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar said India will ‘not tolerate’ what he framed as unilateral attempts by China to shift the disputed ‘Line of Actual Control’ (LAC) delineating the border between the two countries. He accused China of massing troops on the border, which he said keeps the bilateral relationship ‘abnormal.’ Meanwhile India announced in November it will build infrastructure to house 22,000 troops and 450 tanks along the disputed zone. (HINDUSTAN TIMES)

Chinese and Saudi Arabian officials will sign $29.62 billion worth of commercial deals this week during President Xi Jinping's three-day visit to the Kingdom.

In all, some 20 agreements will be inked, according to a report published on Tuesday by the state-run Saudi Press Agency.

BOTTOM LINE: While the value of these deals does sound impressive, it's worth noting that Chinese officials often like to boost these kinds of announcements by re-packaging contracts that have already been closed and include MOUs that frequently fail to materialize.

Therefore, the actual value of these "deal announcements" often ends up being much less than what state-run media outlets reported.

SUGGESTED READING:

• Alarabiya News: Agreements worth $29 billion to be signed during China’s Xi visit to Saudi Arabia
• Reuters: Deals worth more than $29.3 bln to be signed during Saudi-China summit - SPA

The obvious reason for Xi Jinping's trip to Saudi Arabia is to foster closer ties with one of China's largest oil suppliers (Russia and Saudi Arabia have been battling for the top spot for much of the past year), but that alone would overlook the increasingly dynamic economic relationship that's emerging between these two countries.

Deeper Chinese economic engagement in the Saudi technology, arms manufacturing and automotive sectors are all bolstering the Kingdom's status as China's largest trading partner in the Middle East and North Africa.

Two-way trade last year, predominantly oil, topped $87 billion, nearly three times as much as Saudi Arabia traded with the United States.

China-Saudi Arabia Trade by the Numbers:

• OIL: Saudi Arabian oil last year accounted for 17.4% of China’s total crude imports, worth $35.5 billion.

• NON-OIL: With a 16.4% share, China is the top destination for Saudi Arabian non-oil exports.

• IMPORTS: Last year, Saudi Arabia bought $30.32 billion worth of Chinese goods, making China the Kingdom's largest importer.  

• EXPORTS: Saudi Arabia exported $10.96 billion worth of non-oil products to China last year, mostly organic chemicals ($5.15b), plastics ($3.1b) and mineral fuels ($1.36b).

SUGGESTED READING:

• Bloomberg: Xi Jinping Gets Saudi Red Carpet as Middle East Looks Past US by Ben Bartenstein and Sylvia Westall
• Arab News: Arab-China economic ties in focus as President Xi Jinping begins Saudi Arabia visit

Atlantic Council Senior Fellow Jonathan Fulton has some advice for journalists covering Xi Jinping's visit to Saudi Arabia: don't fall for the simple narrative that this trip is about some kind of Great Power Competition with the United States.

Instead, Fulton recommends looking at the meetings and summits that will take place this week from the perspective of the various Arab countries that are keen to diversify their international relations beyond reliance on the U.S. and Europe.

"Most of the world doesn’t see great power competition everywhere," he said in an interview with Middle East scholar Marc Lynch.

Jonathan Fulton on What Arab Countries and China Want From Each Other:

• WHAT DO ARAB COUNTRIES WANT FROM CHINA?: "I think a lot of people in the Gulf see that the U.S. remains their primary partner in almost every realm but China’s really important too. I think what you see countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE saying is that, look, we want to work with the U.S. on all the important stuff and that isn’t going to change, but Washington needs to understand that China is important to us too and the stuff we do with China doesn’t necessarily compete with or overlap with the U.S. in the way Washington does."

• WHAT DOES CHINA WANT FROM THE ARAB WORLD?: "The main thing China wants from the Middle East is stability, the status quo. The Middle East is important to them but not that important, right? It’s not in that core interest basket. They just want it to not fall to pieces, make money through contracts, keep the energy flowing."

Read the full interview on the Abu Aardvark MENA Academy Substack.

Now that China is beginning to relax its draconian Zero COVID policies and President Xi Jinping has emerged from three years of diplomatic hibernation, Ryan Hass, a top China scholar at the Brookings Institution, reflected in a multipart Twitter thread on Tuesday on the choices ahead for Xi in terms of the future direction of Chinese foreign policy.

This five-part thread has been lightly edited for clarity:

I'm unpersuaded that Beijing is launching any charm offensive. It is not altering policy positions or increasing incentives to others. Xi is returning to the world stage after several years at home for COVID control and consolidation of power. 

China's leaders are looking for opportunities to strengthen their position in competition with U.S. and others. They would like key countries to respect their "core interests" and refrain from joining coalitional efforts to challenge China's rise.

China's leaders are looking to make up lost ground on the world stage from the past several years of inward focus. They will seek to tilt relations in the Middle East in their direction, consolidate influence in the developing world, and pull the EU toward equidistance between the U.S. and the PRC.

[They will also want to] ensure the EU doesn't solidify bloc-wide policy positions that challenge China...Beijing also will work on countries such as India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Netherlands, and ROK. They want to create more separation between those countries and U.S.

After grossly underperforming on its diplomatic potential in recent years, a key question will be whether China can course correct or whether Beijing doubles down on tit-for-tat actions and demands of obedience to China's priorities and concerns.

Read the full thread on Ryan Hass's Twitter page.

The White House is working hard to make sure that China does not become a topic of conversation at next week's U.S.-Africa leaders summit that will take place in Washington, D.C.

“Our goal is not to center our conversation on competition or rivalry with these other countries; that’s not the best way to advance U.S. interests and our shared goals with Africans,” a senior White House official told Foreign Policy.

This may come as a surprise given the enthusiasm among many senior U.S. officials for criticizing China in Asia, the Pacific Island Countries, and beyond.

But in Africa, the Biden administration has sought to downplay the narrative that the U.S. and China are locked in some kind of competition. In contrast to the Trump administration's Prosper Africa strategy which focused largely on confronting China's growing influence on the continent, the current administration didn't mention China once by name in its latest strategy for Africa, which was released in August.

Some 50 African leaders have been invited to attend next week's summit which will take place from Tuesday to Thursday.

SUGGESTED READING:

• Foreign Policy: Biden’s Big Africa Summit Carefully Sidesteps China by Robbie Gramer
• Politico: No one-on-ones yet scheduled between Biden and African leaders heading to D.C. by Alexander Ward, Nahal Toosi, and Phelim Kline

The top U.S. trade official, Katherine Tai, acknowledged that Washington is increasingly facing difficulties in Africa and other regions because China, not the U.S., is most countries' largest trading partner.

During a conversation with The Atlantic Council's Rama Yade, Tai also downplayed competition with China in Africa as the primary motivation for why Washington should be more engaged:

China has been playing a very aggressive game all over the world. I can't tell you how many conversations I have had with really important, longstanding allies and trading partners who tell me "you're incredibly important to us but at this point our largest trading partner and our largest trading relationship is China." 

That is a fact that we are encountering all over the world...

Do we need to be, as the United States, playing a much more engaged role with the rest of the world? Do we need to be innovating in how we bring our political and economic philosophy and values to creating that economic inter-operability, creating the types of opportunities that we value so much here and that we would like to see around the world... uhh... yes, absolutely. 

But is that the driving force for why we should be interested in Africa? Absolutely not. There are one million reasons why the U.S.-Africa relationship on its own requires our maximum attention. 

FOOTNOTE: China did more trade with Africa in the first quarter of 2022 ($54.8 billion) than the United States did all last year ($58.4 billion)

Watch the full video clip on The Atlantic Council's YouTube channel.

Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari led a groundbreaking ceremony for the new Chinese-financed headquarters of the West African regional organization ECOWAS.

The new $32 million facility will be entirely paid for by the Chinese government and mostly built by Chinese contractors. Sunday's event comes one week after Zimbabwe's new parliament building opened, also wholly paid for by China. 

There are at least 186 government buildings in Africa, including the African Union and the African Centers for Disease Control headquarters in Addis Ababa, that have been paid for by China, according to research by Heritage Foundation analyst Joshua Meservey. (CHANNELSTV)

Apple is reportedly moving faster to relocate more of its production to countries outside China and reduce its longtime dependence on Taiwan-based contract manufacturing giant Foxconn.

Eventually, the Cupertino-based electronics giant aims to ship 40-45% of iPhones from India, while Vietnam will emerge as a hub to produce other items including AirPods, watches and laptops, according to Ming-chi Kuo, a supply chain analyst at TF International Securities in Taipei and widely regarded as the world's foremost Apple watcher. 

But Miami Herald columnist Andres Oppenheimer can't believe what he's seeing.

How is it possible that Mexico and other Latin American countries aren't doing more to fight for some of the billions of dollars in Apple manufacturing money that's now up for grabs and letting all of that investment and employment go to Asia?

"The leaders of Latin America’s biggest countries — Mexico, Brazil and Argentina — deserve a gold medal for incompetence," he complained in a recent column about these countries failing to take advantage of what he called "the opportunity of a lifetime."

"Latin America is missing its biggest opportunity in generations, and the leaders of the region’s biggest countries are asleep at the wheel," lamented Oppenheimer.

SUGGESTED READING:

• Miami Herald: China’s troubles are Latin America’s biggest opportunity, but the region is missing it by Andres Oppenheimer
• The Wall Street Journal: Apple Makes Plans to Move Production Out of China by Yang Jie and Aaron Tilley

Saudi Arabia will mark Chinese President Xi Jinping’s state visit from 7 to 9 December with a China-Arab summit, according to Saudi diplomats. Invitations to Middle Eastern and North African leaders have reportedly already gone out. The summit will come at a delicate moment in U.S.-Saudi relations, which is increasingly affected by China’s growing prominence in the region. (REUTERS)

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is under attack from opposition parties for being too soft on China following his recent handshake with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in Bali. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar clapped back at those critics on Friday when he said the administration has been "very firm" with Beijing as evidenced by New Delhi's robust troop deployments along the disputed border in the Himalayas. (INDIAN EXPRESS)

Mongolian President Khnaa Khurelsukh wrapped up a two-day state visit to China on Monday where he held talks with both President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Li Keqiang.  The visit highlights the priority that Xi is now putting on ties with China's neighbors following his recent trips to Central and Southeast Asia. Mongolia is also a key Chinese supplier of coal, copper, and gold. (GLOBAL TIMES)

Chinese telecom giant Huawei launched its newest 5G network in Africa, this time in Zambia. Huawei equipment will power MTN's new mobile network that began service late last week. The 5G debut in Zambia follows similar launches in Kenya and South Africa earlier this year that also use Huawei's networking gear.(CHINA DAILY)

Zhang Jun, China’s envoy to the UN, expressed concern about the deteriorating security situation in the Palestinian territories and called on the international community to weigh Israeli and Palestinian security equally and to support a bilateral dialogue. "We call on Israel to ease restrictions on the movement of people and humanitarian, reconstruction materials into and out of the Gaza Strip, to lift the blockade on Gaza as soon as possible, and to effectively create conditions for the development of Palestinian communities in the West Bank," Zhang said. (XINHUA)

Chinese President Xi Jinping met with President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh of Mongolia in Beijing on Monday. Their discussions covered progress on a China-Mongolia-Russia economic corridor and a China-Russia gas pipeline that will run through Mongolian territory. They also signed declarations to work together on trade, investment, and customs, as well as on anti-desertification initiatives. (CHINESE MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS)

Chinese lithium salts producer Yahua Industrial Group said it will spend $145 million to acquire buy a majority stake in two Hong Kong units of China Africa Industrial that own a 70% stake in four lithium mines in Namibia. The company has been on a quest to secure more lithium assets. The Namibian move comes as an earlier attempt to buy Canada’s Ultra Lithium fell apart partly due to pressure from the Canadian government. (YICAI)

U.S. and Indian army forces on Tuesday held high-altitude training exercises in the Himalayas near India's disputed border with China. The annual “Yudh Abhyas” exercises took place just 100 kilometers from the contested border region known as the Line of Actual control. The joint exercises reflect increasingly close security ties between the U.S. and India and their shared ambition to challenge Chinese influence in the Asia-Pacific region. (ASSOCIATED PRESS)

Slumping Chinese oil demand is prompting Saudi Arabia, China's largest supplier, to consider a $2 per-barrel price cut for January shipments. "The lower demand in China as a result of the widening COVID-19 curbs, and the prospect of increasing Russian oil flowing into Asia soured market sentiment," said one trader surveyed by Reuters. The price cut would push the January 2023 price of Saudi oil to a 10-month low. (REUTERS)

Chinese steel giant Tsingshan is expanding its already formidable presence in Zimbabwe with a new lithium mining and processing venture.  Company Chairman Xiang Guangda and President Emmerson Mnangagwa signed the deal on Tuesday in Harare. Tsingshan is building a $1 billion steel plant (Africa's largest) and already has extensive coal and smelting operations in Zimbabwe. (REUTERS)

Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Thongloun Sisoulith, the president of Laos on Wednesday. Sisoulith is also the general secretary of the Lao People’s Revolutionary Party, and the visit was dominated by the rituals of party-party diplomacy in the wake of the death of former Chinese leader Jiang Zemin. They also discussed closer coordination on security and policing issues, and enhancing trade and investment ties. (XINHUA)

Chinese electric-vehicle maker BYD has announced it will launch its cars in Mexico next year, with a senior executive pegging its sales target at up to 30,000 vehicles in 2024. BYD will begin selling fully electric versions of its Tang sport utility vehicle alongside its Han sedan through eight dealers across Mexico, according to the company’s country head Zhou Zou. (AL JAZEERA)

🇩🇯 DJIBOUTI: The government reportedly suspended debt repayments to two of its largest creditors, likely China and Kuwait, in response to a dramatic increase in the country's debt servicing costs in 2022, according to a new World Bank report. (SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST)

🇷🇼 RWANDA: China offered to write off a $7.1 million interest-free loan used to build the 6km Masaka-Kabuga road in the capital Kigali. Chinese cancellations of these types of zero-interest loans in Africa are quite common. (THE EAST AFRICAN)