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Who Will Succeed Amidst Global Economic Fragmentation?

By Lukas Fiala It’s hard to go a day without reading about new economic security measures on either side of the Atlantic. From EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles to the U.S. Treasury’s sanctions on China’s dual-use trade with Russia, the ...

Analysis from Cobus van Staden

Philippine President Ramps Up Rhetoric as Local Attitudes Harden

The President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., told soldiers to be ready for any conflict amid a potential overlap of his country’s tensions with China in the South China Sea and growing tensions between China and Taiwan.
Speaking to troops at a base in the northern Isabela province on Monday, Marcos said: “The external threat now has become more pronounced, has become more worrisome, and that is why we have to ...

Does Europe Want to Compete With China in the Global South?

By Lukas Fiala When Ursula von der Leyen took on the top job in Brussels back in 2019, she vowed to transform the European Union’s quasi-government—the European Commission—into a “geopolitical Commission.” Little did EU bureaucrats ...

India-China Relations in Modi’s Third Term

By Saniya Kulkarni & Lukas Fiala The world’s largest democracy has gone to the polls. And while Narendra Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost their outright majority, the incumbent Prime Minister resigned on Wednesday to pave the way for a ...

China’s Naval Diplomacy Comeback

​​By Lukas Fiala Earlier this week, Vice Admiral Monde Lobese, Chief of the South African Navy, met with China’s Defense Minister, Admiral Dong Jun 董军 in Beijing. For PLA analysts, the visit may come as no surprise, given the PLA’s ...

A Tale of Two Ports: A Potential Shift in Indian Ocean Maritime Politics?

By Saniya Kulkarni India recently signed an agreement with Iran to jointly develop and operate Chabahar Port, located on the southeastern Iranian coast on the Gulf of Oman. The new arrangement, which entails India committing to investing $370 million into the infrastructure of ...

Matching Deeds With Words? The Coming of Age of the “China Model”

China’s economic statecraft across the developing world continues to receive global media attention. From the infamous and largely debunked “debt trap” to China’s future as a development financier, the country’s lending practices have primarily been connected to its record-breaking economic growth in the past.  

Words Come Easy, Action Does Not: China in the Context of Sudan

By Felix Brender Earlier this month, media and commentators briefly shifted their hyperfocus from conflicts that fit into an easy-to-grasp Disney-style good/bad binary to “one of the worst humanitarian disasters in recent memory:” the consequences of the most recent round of sectarian ...

China’s Engagement in the Global South: Three Lessons From Fiji’s China Policing Deal Volte-Face

By Innocent Batsani-Ncube When Sitiveni Rabuka was elected Fiji's Prime Minister after a very close parliamentary vote in December 2022,  expectations were high — especially in Australia and other Western capitals — that his government would make good on his election campaign commitment to ...

How Much of China’s Foreign Policy is About the U.S.?

By Lukas Fiala Over the past week, two conversations with some of our American counterparts reminded me of a perennial question in the China space: How much of China’s foreign policy — broadly conceived — is about the U.S.? At first ...

Sky High Ambitions? Military Aviation and Africa-China Relations

By Lukas Fiala Angolan President João Lourenço’s desire to have China build an air force base in Angola again highlights the issue of military cooperation between Africa and China. What are the drivers of China’s foray into African military aviation?

The Sky is the Limit: Aviation and Africa-China Relations

By Lukas Fiala When Angolan President João Lourenço returned from China over the last week, he made a few noteworthy announcements. However, Lourenço’s apparent desire to have China finance an air force base in Angola stood out.
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