In a recent analysis published by Shanghai-based news outlet The Paper, Yu Haiqiu, a prominent Chinese scholar of Southeast Asian politics, offers a deeper look at the roots and implications of Thailand’s escalating political crisis, focusing on its historical tensions with Cambodia and the fallout for China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
According to Yu, the current turmoil surrounding Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra is not merely the result of a leaked phone call or domestic political infighting—it reflects a dangerous resonance between nationalist sentiments and fragile cross-border relationships, particularly with Cambodia. The historical dispute over sites like the Preah Vihear temple and Chong Bok region, shaped by colonial-era border demarcations, remains a flashpoint. Whenever domestic politics become unstable, these unresolved border issues tend to resurface and escalate.
Yu warns that the recent border clash and the political scandal it triggered—amplified by accusations of “betrayal” from former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen—could threaten regional connectivity. In particular, sustained tension or border closures between Thailand and Cambodia risk undermining the China-led BRI, especially projects centered on the Pan-Asia Railway and broader Mekong subregion integration. If the border dispute deepens, not only would infrastructure links be delayed or disrupted, but the broader geopolitical stability needed for BRI to function effectively in mainland Southeast Asia could erode.
Beyond bilateral fallout, Yu also cautions against potential intervention from outside powers, including former colonial actors like France, under the pretext of mediation. Such moves could complicate China’s efforts to position itself as a stabilizing economic force in the region.
Ultimately, Yu’s commentary frames Thailand’s internal crisis not as an isolated domestic drama but as a geopolitical tremor with implications for China’s regional strategy and the future of interconnectivity across the Indo-China Peninsula.
