Thailand and Cambodia signed a joint peace declaration at the ASEAN summit in late October, aimed at ending long-standing border disputes. Yet, less than two months later, Thai forces launched strikes on casinos and hotels in Cambodia, reportedly linked to cross-border online fraud. Experts in China say the attacks reveal Bangkok’s dissatisfaction with previous conflict outcomes and its desire for a more favorable bilateral negotiation position.
The situation is further complicated by U.S. involvement. On December 12, former U.S. President Trump claimed both countries had agreed to a “comprehensive ceasefire” and would resume the Kuala Lumpur Peace Agreement, only for Thai officials to deny the claim the following day, underscoring the uncertainty and volatility of the border situation.
Gu Jiayun, deputy dean of the Asian College at Beijing Foreign Studies University, told Phoenix TV that U.S. mediation primarily serves its own interests. The October 26 agreement was a weak, ASEAN-backed statement benefiting the U.S., followed by U.S. mineral and trade deals with Thailand and Cambodia. Beyond economic gains, the U.S. also seeks geopolitical leverage.
Thailand-Cambodia relations remain fragile, influenced by complex domestic and international factors, and can’t be stabilized through tariff pressure alone.
Military analyst Sasu told Phoenix TV that Cambodia’s casinos and fraud zones are major economic engines. Thailand’s attacks serve both to weaken these industries and protect its own tourism sector, while signaling to regional investors that Southeast Asia’s security environment remains unpredictable.
WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? The Thai crackdown on Cambodian casinos and scam centers exposes how the long-standing headache of cross-border fraud and bilateral tensions are deeply intertwined. For Chinese scholars, while the U.S. has leveraged tariff threats and trade agreements to push for a ceasefire, these measures are temporary and cannot resolve the underlying economic and security disputes between Thailand and Cambodia.
