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For 32 years, Chinese foreign ministers like Wang Yi have made it a priority to go to Africa for their first overseas trip of the year but little is known about what goes into selecting the countries for these annual visits.

Publicly, Chinese officials say little (actually they say pretty much nothing) and academics such as Professor He Wenping, one of China's most prominent Africa scholars, provide less-than-satisfactory explanations that it comes down to which countries are sufficiently friendly to China and the importance of ensuring geographic equity (in other words, Wang went to West Africa last year, so he must go to East Africa this year.)

One would assume, however, that the foreign ministry uses a more sophisticated formula to make these decisions that take into account geopolitical, economic, and commercial considerations.

But you'll never hear about these calculations in the official discourse, at least on China's outward-facing English-language media outlets like CGTN Radio, where He was asked this week to comment on Wang's current tour and to respond to the persistent accusations that China engages in predatory lending in Africa:

• WHY WERE THESE THREE COUNTRIES CHOSEN FOR THIS YEAR'S VISIT? I think there are a number of reasons behind [this decision]. First of all, all three of these countries are all very friendly with China.

  [The second reason[, as you just mentioned, the very first overseas trip [of the year] is always to Africa but as you know Africa is a continent with 54 countries, so each time he (Wang Yi) will choose a different region to visit because you cannot [go to every country]. Last year, in 2021, he visited West Africa and southern Africa, so this time he's going to East Africa and the Horn of Africa to [maintain] balance.

• CHINA IS BLAMED FOR CREATING DEBT TRAPS IN AFRICA. WHAT IS YOUR VIEW? I think this is an old and outdated story. I still remember clearly that Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta was asked this question during an interview with CNN and he said clearly that all of the debt that Kenya owes to China has been used to build railways, ports and the airport terminal -- it's all used for construction and not to pay employees salaries [in the government] -- and in his words [these loans] are used to create jobs so it's very healthy debt. All of the countries in the world have gone through this process, even the United States, the biggest superpower in the world also borrows lots of money from China, so why isn't anyone saying that the United States is in a debt trap?

  Even President Kenyatta asked why [CNN] is only asking about China's debts [because] Kenya has borrowed from many countries including the U.S., Japan, IMF, World Bank. But we all know what's the reason.

Listen to the full interview with He Wenping on the CGTN Radio website.

The DR Congo's Mining Minister Antoinette N'samba is trying to quell accusations that the Chinese-owned Anhui Mining Investment Company (SACIM) was ransacked by looters last week after she and President Félix Tshisekedi visited the facility in the central Kasai Oriental province.

Soon after the presidential visit, videos began to appear online showing what appears to be widespread looting. But because SACIM did not register any complaints or report any damage, N'samba insists that nothing happened there.

While SACIM may not have said anything to Congolese authorities, someone at the company informed the Chinese embassy, who reported in their weekly security update published online that a "large number of local people poured into the concentrator, and empty oil drums, tailings, and other items were robbed" from SACIM.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi landed in the Eritrean capital Asmara on Tuesday evening to kick off a three-nation, four-day Africa tour that also includes stops in Kenya and the Comoros Islands in the Indian Ocean.

Wang was greeted at the airport by his Eritrean counterpart Osman Saleh and will meet later on Wednesday with President Isaias Afwerki. 

Chinese state media has been uncharacteristically quiet about Wang's trip to Eritrea. Unlike other high-level Chinese visits to Africa where Xinhua, CGTN, and Global Times among other outlets publish video and text articles in advance of the trip and then have a story ready to go upon arrival, this time... nothing.  

Even after Wang arrived in Eritrea yesterday, neither CGTN Africa nor Xinhua's main Africa news page has any mention of the trip (as of Wednesday morning Asia time.) Also, it's a bit odd that Wang's trip also wasn't mentioned once at Tuesday's Foreign Ministry press briefing in Beijing. Normally when Wang is overseas, a Chinese state media staffer floats a softball question for the spokesperson to expound on -- but that didn't happen this time.

And it's unusual that not a single Chinese embassy or diplomat in Africa even tweeted about Wang's arrival (not even the embassy in Asmara.) This is very unusual when the Foreign Minister is in their region.

It will be interesting to see if this low-key approach continues throughout the week. It may be more difficult at his next stop in Nairobi, given that Kenya is one of Africa's largest media hubs.

Likely Agenda Points For Wang Yi's Meetings Today in Asmara:

• ETHIOPIA: It's likely that the ongoing war in Ethiopia will be the most important topic of discussion between Wang and his Eritrean hosts. Wang will probably restate Beijing's longstanding opposition to "external interference" and "unilateral sanctions," both references to U.S. policy towards Ethiopia, and quite timely ahead of U.S. Horn of Africa envoy Jeffrey Feltman's arrival in Addis Ababa on Thursday.

• BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE: Eritrea joined the BRI last November, making it and Guinea-Bissau the two newest members of the club. As such, it's customary that China rewards new BRI members with infrastructure projects. Transportation initiatives that link to Eritrea's ports are most likely, according to analysts at Development Reimagined.

• COVID VACCINES: Even though reported infections of COVID-19 in Eritrea remain very low, at least according to the government, the country stands as an outlier when it comes to vaccines. "Eritrea is the only country now that has not joined the family of 55 member states (of the African Union) that are moving forward with vaccination, but we are not giving up," said Africa CDC John Nkengasong last month. Wang can resolve that issue quite easily with a modest vaccine donation.

Wang will travel to Kenya next before heading on to three Indian Ocean states: the Comoros Islands, the Maldives, and Sri Lanka.

UPDATE:Since the time of writing, CGTN Africa did broadcast a report from Asmara on Wang's arrival:

Peter Pham, the former Trump administration diplomat in Africa and one of China's most vocal critics in Washington, surprised even a few of his own followers on Tuesday when he posted rare praise for China's emphasis on in-person diplomacy in Africa.

This is not the kind of thing you see very often from Pham,  given that he's normally tweeting about Chinese corruption in Africa or getting into Twitter spats with Chinese ambassadors on the continent.

Although Pham does not have any official portfolio in the Biden Administration, he is nonetheless one of the most visible U.S. stakeholders on African policy today and is deeply engaged in various U.S. government-supported companies like Africell that does business in Angola and the DR Congo.

It's widely believed in many parts of Washington that Pham is positioning himself for a senior State Department role, possibly even the Assistant Secretary for African Affairs if a Republican administration returns to power in 2024.

Wang Yi's current visit to Africa is the continuation of a 32-year tradition where the first overseas trip of the year by a Chinese Foreign Minister is always to Africa.

This custom didn't historically attract much attention, but now it's become a hallmark of China's Africa policy and the most visible demonstration of its commitment to the continent, especially when measured against much less frequent visits by U.S., Japanese and European high-level officials.

It's still something of a mystery how the Foreign Ministry selects the itineraries of these January tours. No one has clearly explained what goes into the decision-making process and there doesn't appear to be any regional pattern.

The one thing that does stand out, however, and this is the case with the current trip, is that the foreign ministers don't only go to the big countries. Smaller countries like Eritrea and Benin seem to get as much attention as larger ones. 

The nationalist tabloid Global Times published a helpful list on Wednesday of each country that a Chinese FM visited during the January tours dating back to 1991:

It's a relatively recent phenomenon for China to frame its relations in Africa within the larger context of great power competition with the United States and the European Union. Prior to the Trump administration when the ties between the U.S. and China started deteriorating more rapidly, Africa was not a major focal point of Sino-U.S. competition.

That is definitely not the case today. One indication that Chinese stakeholders increasingly view Africa as a regional theater of competition with the U.S. and Europe is a noticeable increase in the quantity of academic writing on the subject at universities and think tanks across the country.

This is most evident on scholarly WeChat pages like the Africa Research Group (非洲研究小组.) It showcases essays and academic papers, which provide valuable insights on the Chinese discourse on these issues often missing from the propaganda that is published in English-language Chinese media.

Zhang Chun 张春, a researcher at the Center for African Studies at Yunnan University in southwestern China (which, incidentally, has one of China's oldest and most well-known Africa studies programs) published a new paper this week on the Africa Research Group's WeChat account that explored the new challenges Africa will face in the months ahead brought about by COVID-19 and, increasingly, the burgeoning rivalry between China and the U.S. and Europe.

Key Highlights From Zhang Chun's Paper on Great Power Competition in Africa:

• U.S., EUROPE, AND CHINA ALL HAVE DIFFERENT AFRICA STRATEGIES: "Due to limited capabilities, the U.S. and France's strategies in Africa focus more on ideology [Chinese stakeholders use the word "ideology" to refer to U.S./EU emphasis on governance and democracy.] The U.S. has tried to engage in strategic competition in Africa but since it doesn't allocate resources to that effort it's forced to spend small money and try to do big things. 

  "Due to Brexit and COVID, the UK has shifted towards a more pragmatic Africa policy that's focused on initiatives like the UK-Africa Investment Summit." [generally Chinese stakeholders tend to be less confrontational about London's new approach to Africa that more closely resembles China's commercially-driven policies.]

• INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE NEW FOCUS OF GREAT POWER COMPETITION:  "Spurred on by China's Belt and Road Initiative, other countries have stepped onto the field of infrastructure development in Africa. The U.S., in particular, with its Build Back Better World (B3W) strategy aims to assist developing countries with a focus on infrastructure development that incorporates climate change, health and digital. B3W is clearly positioned to be an alternative to the BRI."

• SECURITY ASSISTANCE IS THE NEXT FRONT IN GREAT POWER COMPETITION IN AFRICA: "Within the context of China's broader engagement in Africa, Africa is calling on China for more participation in peace and security affairs... China's security assistance in Africa has attracted a lot of attention from the West, largely because the U.S., France and the EU have provided security aid to Africa for a long time but to little effect as "more aid creates more chaos" (越援越乱).

  "Therefore, with the development of security assistance with Chinese characteristics, it's likely now that competition in this area will become a new hot spot among major foreign powers in Africa."

Read the full article by Zhang Chun 张春, a researcher at the Center for African Studies at Yunnan University on the Africa Research Group WeChat page (in Chinese).

It's been exactly a month since the Wall Street Journal published the Pentagon's latest claim (albeit not a new assertion) that China plans to build a new military outpost on Africa's Atlantic coast in Equatorial Guinea. Chinese propaganda outlets like Global Times are still furious about it.

The nationalist tabloid published an opinion column by Song Zhongping who is vaguely described as a "Chinese military expert and TV commentator" that denounced the increasingly popular "Atlantic String of Pearls" theory that's now making the rounds in Washington.

While most of Song's column was the usual anti-U.S. propaganda that is now quite ubiquitous on Global Times, there was one point that did stand out:

China must protect its national sovereignty, security, and development interests, which include its overseas interests. The more overseas interests China has, the more it's necessary to build and maintain training and support bases nearby. Otherwise, it would be unable for China to respond quickly when its own interests are hurt.

This is a relatively new line that is emerging as Beijing gradually allows its once bedrock doctrine to "never build military bases or station forces abroad" to fade away. This line was no doubt carefully screened by Global Times's editorial censors, indicating there are clearly factions within the government that are advocating to build a second installation somewhere in the world.

The key question, though, is where?

While U.S. generals are focused on the Atlantic, albeit without producing any evidence, Song rightly notes that a single Chinese military base in Equatorial Guinea or anywhere on Africa's Western shore would "neither connect to the Chinese soil nor pose a threat to any major power." 

Instead, the Pentagon should more closely follow the itinerary of Foreign Minister Wang Yi's current overseas tour that has him visiting three Indian Ocean countries which have a far more direct impact on China's economic and national security interests.

There are growing calls among prominent conservative foreign policy analysts in Washington, D.C. for the United States to extend formal diplomatic recognition to the self-declared state of Somaliland as a way to confront "the growing threat from China and uncertainty over Djibouti's future."

There's a sense that Djibouti's close ties with Beijing make it a less than ideal location for a major American military installation and that Somaliland presents an opportunity to build a new outpost that will be free of any Chinese incursion. 

Michael Rubin, a senior research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, published an appeal in the National Interest (a right-leaning foreign policy news outlet) for National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan to make the move.

Rubin's column makes a similar case as Heritage Foundation analyst Joshua Meservey did last fall when he noted China's outsized influence in Djibouti as a key reason for Washington to shift its focus in the Horn of Africa to Somaliland.

Why Rubin and Meservey Think the U.S. Should Move to Somaliland From Djibouti:

• THE U.S. MUST MOVE QUICKLY: "For too long, the dispute over U.S. posture toward Somaliland has festered. The growing threat from China and uncertainty over Djibouti’s future now bring the question to a head. If Jake Sullivan fails to force a policy decision, the window of opportunity might close: China might make its own move on Somaliland in order to deny the United States any logistical hub in the region" -- Michael Rubin, American Enterprise Institute (THE NATIONAL INTEREST)

• THERE'S A RISK OF CHINESE ELITE CAPTURE IN HARGEISA: "The greater danger is that the Chinese government would try to degrade Somaliland’s relationship with Taiwan and the U.S. by wooing its leadership with lavish aid packages or personal inducements, as it has done with many other African governments. Somaliland resisted such blandishments previously because Hargeisa likely calculated that spurning Beijing would win American favor" -- Joshua Meservey, Heritage Foundation (HERITAGE FOUNDATION)

SUGGESTED READING:

• The Globe and Mail: Somaliland asks Canada for help amid superpower rivalry in Horn of Africa by Steven Chase
• Politico: On the Horn of Africa, a tiny 'country' has Congress' ear by Phelim Kline

With China's borders all but sealed and no prospect of reopening soon as long as strict COVID-19 mitigation protocols are in effect, tens of thousands of African students are left wondering what's going to happen to their education at Chinese universities.

Prior to the pandemic, China received more than 80,000 students annually, many on scholarships, making it one of the top two destinations in the world for Africans to study overseas.

Like schools in other countries, Chinese universities have transitioned online but a lot of African students complain that the time difference, the language barriers, and curricula that were not designed to be taught virtually make it difficult, if not impossible, to learn effectively.

More and more, as the Paris-based news outlet Jeune Afrique reported this week, African students are wondering if it's worth even pursuing a degree in China anymore. Some are dropping out, others are hoping to pick up scholarships in other countries.

Read more on this story in Jeune Afrique (in French).

Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda are starting 2022 with an eye on borrowing hundreds of millions of dollars to fund new infrastructure development and to help close the finance gap created by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

The Kenyan Treasury informed the IMF that it plans to issue two new sovereign bonds worth around $2 billion before July. These will be used to finance government operations and repay a portion of a 2014 Eurobond. The government is widely expected to exceed its current $78.9 billion debt ceiling.

Uganda is looking to borrow $500 million from commercial lenders sometime later this spring. Analysts, though, are not as concerned about the country's $14 billion public debt, because it's still below the 50% debt-to-GDP threshold, with loan servicing costs accounting for around 15% of the budget.

It's a similar situation in Tanzania, where the debt-to-GDP ratio is also relatively low at just 28%. This gives President Samia Suluhu the space to take out loans to build infrastructure projects like the new $1.9 billion standard gauge railway, to be built by the Turkish firm Yapi Merkezi.

China, once a major creditor in East Africa (especially in Kenya), is no longer a primary source of financing.

SUGGESTED READING:

• The East African: East African countries go on a loan binge to bridge huge budget deficits
• The East African: Tanzania not at risk of debt distress, says central bank boss

DR Congo President Félix Tshisekedi's office published a photo of a Christmas Eve meeting with Sun Ruiwen, president of China Molybdenum (aka "China Moly.") The company controls the massive Tenke Fungurume cobalt and copper mine (TFM) in Lualaba province.

Sun reportedly reassured President Tshisekedi that China Moly will fulfill its contractual obligations to build infrastructure, pay its required taxes and increase local hiring. The President conveyed to Sun that he hopes the company will continue to invest in the DRC.

These pleasantries are not what's important here. More significant are the optics of the photo.

China Moly, along with the Chinese-run joint venture Sicomines, were at the center of a contentious months-long dispute last year over mining contracts between these companies and President Tshisekedi's predecessor Joseph Kabila. 

There were disputes over whether China Moly, Sicomines, and other large Chinese mining companies had built the infrastructure that was promised as part of those contracts.

The fact that Sun seemingly allowed this meeting to be photographed is a solid indication that whatever arrangement China Moly reached with the government in Kinshasa over contracts and infrastructure is probably more or less resolved.

Otherwise, it's improbable that someone of Sun's stature would have permitted a photo like this to be published and risk any negative publicity. As a rule, leaders of major Chinese enterprises like Sun only allow public photo ops like this once the major issues have all been resolved.

SUGGESTED READING:

• Africa Yellow and Black: Christmas Eve Meeting Between the President of the DR Congo and Sun Ruiwei, President of China Molybdenum (in Chinese)
• Africa Yellow and Black: Sun Ruiwen delivers his 2022 New Year's speech in the DR Congo (in Chinese)

Ghana's National Communications Authority (photo) granted local internet services provider Celltel approval to build the $300 million Ghana Smart Cities Project that will provide national wireless internet coverage.

The company said it plans to use a mix of Chinese and U.S. technology for the rollout. This includes consumer devices like phones, workstations, and tablets that will be manufactured by China's Haitech (a subsidiary of electronics conglomerate Haier) and routers and networking gear made by Cisco.

But this Smart City initiative is different from the dozens of others implemented across Africa, which use Huawei technology for traffic management and video surveillance. Instead, Celltel's plan is more about building a national internet service throughout Ghana.

SUGGESTED READING:

• My Joy Online: Celltel set to roll out $300m Ghana Smart Cities Project
• Ghana News Agency: NCA grants Celltel authorization to roll out Ghana Smart Cities Project

Only been five weeks have elapsed since Chinese President Xi Jinping announced China would distribute one billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines to Africa, so it's still a bit early to check for evidence that this new initiative is up and running.

Other than Monday's announcement that Botswana would receive a donation of two million doses, there've been no other major announcements in recent weeks. In all, Chinese vaccine shipments to Africa remain constant at 117 million doses, according to the latest data from the Beijing-based Bridge Consulting.

But it's worth noting that distribution across the continent remains highly uneven, with 38% of total Chinese vaccines going to just one country, Morocco, and just five other countries (Egypt, Algeria, Libya, Angola, and Zimbabwe) accounting for 40% of total deliveries. 

Overall, Africa's share of China's global vaccine distribution is also steady at just 9% (Africa has never surpassed 10%). 

Generally speaking, the widely-held narrative among media and political elites in France about the Chinese in Africa is very similar to that in the United States where the Chinese presence on the continent is viewed in decidedly negative terms.

That sentiment was on full display last week in the opinion pages of Le Monde, France's newspaper of record, where Eugène Berg, a former ambassador to Namibia and Botswana and now a professor at the Center for Diplomatic and Strategic Studies in Paris, penned a column that concluded "Chinafrique" is substantively no different than "Françafrique" or the actions of other colonial powers:

• CHINA IS NO BETTER THAN THE WEST: "Communist" China, which has long presented itself as absolved from all colonial sin and as the best support for developing countries, is in no way different from the old Western nations.

• ILLICIT TRADE: The growth of illicit trade is the hidden underbelly ("hidden face" in French) that propels the boom in Sino-African trade. Illicit products (drugs, protected species, counterfeits) and legal products illicitly traded (wood, minerals, etc.) have proliferated. In the absence of serious controls by African states, some Chinese companies engage in predatory practices.

Berg's critiques of the Chinese are quite typical of the tone of coverage in leading news publications like Le Monde, Le Figaro, and Mediapart, that largely frame China's policies and actions in Africa as subversive (the implication, of course, that France and other Western countries are more benevolent actors and better partners for the continent).

Just as there's very little nuance in the U.S. political discourse about the Chinese in Africa (debt traps, imported labor, etc...), the French narrative tends to be equally blunt without the texture that an issue as complicated as this requires.

Read the full column on the Le Monde website (in French).

Kenya's straight-talking Transportation and Infrastructure Cabinet Secretary James Macheria (photo) bluntly explained why the government consistently awards major infrastructure projects to Chinese contractors:

For any project, we go through a very competitive process. I will give you an example; we have this road between Kenol to Marawa (In Murang’a County) which was open for competitive bidding. Lot One from Kenol to Sagana is being done at a cost of about $62 million. From Sagana to Marwa it’s being done at $53 million. The total cost is $115 million.

But look at the bids that we got! When we opened the bids from Kenol to Sagana, where the winning bidder was at $62 million, we had some European companies, which I will not mention, which had gone all the way to $159 million.
 

When people say we are giving contracts to Chinese -- am I going to give away a project for the sake of not giving Chinese at $159 million when it could have been done at $62 million?

But cost isn't the only factor, explained Macharia. Chinese contractors' ability to move fast is also very important. "They are very very fast in terms of making decisions and implementation of projects,” he explained.

Both the U.S. and European Union have launched infrastructure initiatives aimed at challenging China's current dominance. But Macharia called out a European group for demanding seemingly endless negotiations before a shovel is in the ground:

Look at the projects we are doing. The [Chinese-built] Nairobi Expressway was launched by the President in October 2019, now it’s 80 percent complete. Around the same time, we were discussing with another European consortium to do Rironi-Mau Summit Road. We started negotiations in September 2016; we have not finished negotiations until now.

Read more on this story on the Kenya Broadcasting Corporation website.

Two of the world's most prominent development finance leaders, Emmanuel Moulin (left), chair of the Paris Club, and World Bank President David Malpass (right), separately named China as one of the key factors in the worsening debt crisis among developing countries.

When asked by the Financial Times why the G20's Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) was not successful, Moulin, who is also head of the French Treasury, seemed to hold Beijing partially responsible. “Some countries have decided not to apply for the final [DSSI] extension as they didn’t want to create difficulties with China,” Moulin said. “Some countries have preferred to talk to China and other creditors about new money rather than requesting help under the DSSI.”

Moulin did not mention, though, that China has deferred an estimated $5.7 billion as part of the DSSI, $1.2 billion more than all Paris Club member states combined

Malpass was equally downbeat about the fate of the DSSI and its successor the Common Framework that he described as "stalled" in an interview with the FT's parent publication Nikkei Asia. And, like Moulin, Malpass put some of the responsibility for the burgeoning debt crisis at the feet of Chinese creditors:

NIKKEI ASIA: It is said that China lends money to developing countries at higher rates than the World Bank. Why do developing countries choose to borrow money from China? Is it because the World Bank's conditions for lending, such as on human rights and democracy, are so strict? Or does the World Bank have a shortage of resources?

DAVID MALPASS: Several decades ago, China made use of the International Development Association (IDA), the World Bank fund for the poorest countries. But China has been able to grow very rapidly in terms of GDP and per capita GDP, and began to borrow from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), the World Bank's lending arm for middle-income countries. But under an agreement within the World Bank in 2018, lending to China has been declining. In addition, the amount of China's contributions to the IDA has been growing, and China is now a net contributor to the World Bank, not a net borrower.

Many of the poor countries borrow from both the World Bank Group and various creditors in China. The funding commitments the World Bank was able to make in the 15 months beginning in April 2020 reached $157 billion, 60% higher than in the previous 15-month period.

SUGGESTED READING:

• Financial Times: Chinese loans deter poor nations from seeking debt relief, says Paris Club chair by Jonathan Wheatley
• Nikkei Asia: Excessive debt is burden on global economy, World Bank head by Takeshi Kawanami

Senegalese President Macky Sall launched a new 40-kilometer commuter railway last week that will link the industrial city Diamniadio with the capital Dakar. The debut of the new Regional Express marked an important milestone for Senegal. It is the first rail line to be built in the country since independence from France in 1960.

It was also notable that it was built by a consortium of some 20 French companies at a cost of $1.3 billion. But what was interesting about the international media coverage is that unlike Chinese railway launches in countries like Ethiopia, Kenya, and Nigeria, where the issue of loans and debt sustainability have become key themes, there was no mention at all of these issues in the coverage by Reuters, AFP, FRANCE 24 and Al Jazeera. 

But that was a serious oversight, according to prominent Kenyan economist David Ndii, who noted that the cost per kilometer of the new Senegalese railway was considerably higher than comparable railways built recently elsewhere in Africa.

The debt servicing issue is important in this case given that a roundtrip ticket on the new railway will cost $6, a considerable expense in a country where the median income is just $160 per month.

SUGGESTED READING:

• Reuters: Senegal's new commuter train makes first journey from capital Dakar by Diadie Ba
• AFP: Senegal railway opening overshadowed by compensation protest

The demands of servicing debts, largely to China, are weighing heavily on Kenya's monetary system. The shilling dropped again in Monday trading and the central bank reported that foreign exchange reserves have plunged by $899 million over the last three months. Analysts say beyond the hundreds of millions of dollars Kenya is using to repay loans to China, the holiday season is also increasing the demand for dollars. It all puts added pressure on the shilling, which closed at 112.83 to the dollar, a dangerous drop of more than 10% since last year. (THE STANDARD)

The High Court in the Ghanaian capital Accra has adjourned the lawsuit brought by civil society groups against the government to halt Chinese bauxite mining in the Atewa Forest Range. The court will resume the case on February 8th next year and will have to judge whether the government should allow Chinese mining companies to prospect in the nature reserve as part of the $2 billion resources-for-infrastructure signed in 2018. (GHANA NEWS)

The South African Revenue Service ordered cobalt and copper mining giant China Molybdenum to pay a VAT tax on one of its private jets. The company's South African subsidiary reportedly uses an Embraer aircraft to shuttle its executives between Johannesburg and the Tenke Fungurume mine in the Congolese mining city of Kowlezi. China Molybdenum is the world's second-largest cobalt producer and is one of the largest mining operators in the DR Congo. (AFRICA INTELLIGENCE)

The Ugandan government submitted a request to parliament on Wednesday to borrow $109 million from the China Construction Bank to build three roads in the country's new oil zone in the Albertine Graben region. These news roadways are intended to facilitate the movement of petroleum, people, and equipment to/from the country's new oil fields. In the wake of the Entebbe Airport loan contract controversy, borrowing from China is now a sensitive issue in parliament and some MPs were unhappy that the finance minister did not appear personally to submit the request. (UGANDA RADIO NETWORK)

China will reduce import tariffs for 44 of the world's least developed countries as part of an effort to boost trade with the Global South and narrow the often sizable trade surpluses Beijing maintains with these countries. The State Council (the Chinese equivalent of the cabinet) announced the lower import duties on Wednesday and said the new rates will take effect at the beginning of the year. Also, tariffs on 954 product categories will be reduced to below most favored nation rates. The State Council added that these new rates only apply to countries that maintain diplomatic ties with China (shutting out the 14 countries that still recognize Taiwan). (XINHUA)

Ugandan police intelligence service arrested nine Chinese nationals this week on suspicion of committing telecom fraud on unsuspecting victims back in China. Police confiscated 555 mobile phones and 270 sim cards when they raided a residence in Kampala where the nine were operating. Police are still investigating and have not yet charged the nine suspects with any crime. Ugandan authorities have been on alert for this kind of illegal activity after last March's arrest of 37 Chinese nationals, who used 2,600 phones to scam people in China. (DAILY MONITOR)

The United Arab Emirates is threatening to cancel a $23 billion weapons deal with the U.S. over security concerns related to Chinese espionage. The UAE is complaining that Washington's requirements to safeguard F-35 jets, Reaper drones, and other high-tech weaponry from the Chinese are too onerous and infringe on Emirati sovereignty. A UAE official said Abu Dhabi is open to revisiting the issue again with the U.S. in the future. (THE WALL STREET JOURNAL)

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi appears to be optimistic that China will continue to buy large quantities of its oil next year and continue to circumvent international sanctions against Tehran. The president submitted his budget to parliament that forecasts 8% growth based on oil sales of 1.2 million barrels per day. Although he didn't specify China as the primary market for that oil, that's pretty much the only place that quantity of Iranian oil can go. Chinese buyers regularly bought between 500,000 and 900,000 bpd of Iranian oil throughout much of this year. (REUTERS)

South African police are investigating the robbery and murder of another member of the country's ethnic Chinese community. The incident took place last Friday in northern Pretoria when a homeowner attempted to fight off an assailant who broke into his house. Witnesses say the victim was shot after a brief scuffle. There's no indication that ethnicity was a determining factor in the attack. However, assaults against ethnic Chinese residents in South Africa have increased sharply this year. Criminals often target Chinese victims on the assumption they have large sums of cash in their possession. (SOUTH AFRICA DAILY -- in Chinese)

China's growing influence in the Global South was among the top agenda items at this weekend's G7 foreign ministers meeting in Liverpool, England. "We have been clear at this meeting this weekend that we are concerned about the coercive economic policies of China," said UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said on Sunday. Truss along with several of her G7 counterparts has often accused China of engaging in predatory lending practices in developing countries. She said a number of new initiatives including B3W, Global Gateway, and a new £9 billion UK initiative are all aimed to provide an alternative to Chinese financing. "What we want to do is build the investment reach, the economic trade reach, of like-minded, freedom-loving democracies, said Truss. (SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST)

China will soon begin to import more bauxite from Guinea following the signing of a three-year deal for a UAE mining company to provide "several million tons" annually to Chinese aluminum major Bosai Group. The first shipments to Bosai will begin next month but the company already has a longstanding relationship with suppliers in Guinea, who've sold the Chongqing-based aluminum manufacturer more than a million tons already this year. China is the world's largest aluminum producer and Guinea is its top supplier. The value of the deal was not disclosed.( REUTERS)

So far this year, Kenya has exported more than 84 million kilos of avocados but only one container has been sent to China, according to Benjamin Tito, director of the Horticulture Crops Directorate in Nairobi. Tito explained that even though a deal has been in place since 2020, Kenyan avocado farmers have not been able to meet China's strict export controls that require the avocados to be flash frozen prior to export. He said the Kenyan government plans to send a team to China next year to try and resolve the situation. (THE STAR)

Researchers at the University of Hong Kong (HKU) found that people inoculated with two doses of Sinovac's COVID-19 vaccine did not produce sufficient detectable levels of antibodies needed to fend off the new highly-infectious Omicron variant.

A third injection did generate some antibodies but researchers cautioned that it is still too early to tell if the extra booster would be enough to prevent infection.

Not surprisingly, the company was not happy with the findings in Hong Kong and published results from its own tests on Wednesday that indicated 35% of those with just two shots did, in fact, produce enough antibodies to neutralize Omicron. For those who received a third booster shot, that figure jumped to 94%.

But it's important to note that Sinovac did not provide any details of its tests and did not say if its results would be subjected to peer review and published in a scientific journal.

It's also worth noting that the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine also did not perform well in the Hong Kong tests, with only 25% of the subjects demonstrating sufficient antibody response against Omicron.

Why This is Potentially Bad News For Africa:

• DEMAND IN CHINA: Although President Xi Jinping did promise to provide a billion vaccine doses to Africa, that was before he knew that one of his country's primary defenses against the virus may not be effective against Omicron. This means that when a new, updated version of Sinovac's jab is available, there's no doubt the priority will be to provide boosters domestically rather than shipping them overseas to places like Africa.

• SUPPLY SHORTAGES: Africa, more than any other region in the world, has struggled to access sufficient supplies of COVID-19 vaccines and that problem will only intensify given the need for a third injection.  It also means that China's billion-dose pledge may not go as far as originally planned if a third of those shots may be needed as boosters.

• PREVALENCE OF SINOVAC: About 20% of the 180 million Chinese vaccines distributed in Africa so far (sales and donations) was produced by Sinovac. This means around 17 million people would need a third booster shot against Omicron. This could further burden weak public health systems in countries that are struggling to get people injected with the first two shots, much less a third.

SUGGESTED READING:

• South China Morning Post: Omicron: China’s Sinovac says third shot could help fight variant, as Hong Kong study fails to reveal antibodies with two by Simone McCarthy
• The New York Times: Hong Kong researchers find that two doses of China’s Sinovac vaccine are inadequate against Omicron. by Paul Mozur and John Liu

Distribution of Sinovac's CoronaVac COVID-19 vaccine remains relatively limited in Africa, according to data from Bridge Consulting's weekly vaccine tracker report. So, if the vaccine is not able to effectively counteract the Omicron variant, the overall impact will be limited.

Jabs made by Sinopharm account for the bulk of Chinese vaccine sales and donations in Africa and it is still not known how effectively their vaccine is able to protect against the new variant.

There does not appear to be any pattern to the inconsistent distribution of Chinese vaccines in Africa over the past 12 months. For much of the year, North African countries accounted for the bulk of deliveries, but that started to change as deliveries increased to southern African countries, namely Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and, more recently, Angola.

Most African countries (all those in orange) have received fewer than a million doses each, which means that only a few hundred thousand people in each country have been fully vaccinated with a two-shot regimen -- a very small proportion of a continent of more than 1.2 billion people. 

Chinese officials have not indicated if they plan to equalize the distribution when it begins to fulfill President Xi Jinping's pledge to donate 600 million vaccines to African countries and manufacture another 400 million doses on the continent.

One of China's largest video surveillance companies, Tiandy, is reportedly selling large quantities of sophisticated AI-enabled cameras with facial recognition technology to Iran's Revolutionary Guard and other Iranian security services, according to a report published earlier this month by surveillance research group IPVM.

Tiandy signed a five-year agreement with Iran and will have eight local employees, according to the company's own social media posts and publicly available marketing materials.

It's not clear, though, precisely which technologies Iranian security forces will use from Tiandy's line-up. Tiandy is among a number of Chinese surveillance technology companies operating in Xinjiang, where it's deployed a highly controversial AI-powered "ethnicity tracking" tool. (MIT TECHNOLOGY REVIEW)

Other China-MENA Headlines:

• QATAR: China and Qatar signed another long-term natural gas deal this month that will provide 1 million tons a year for ten years beginning in 2024. This latest announcement comes as a previously-signed 15-year, 3.5 million ton per year LNG agreement takes effect next month. (OIL PRICE.COM)

• EGYPT: China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) is angling for an expanded role in Egypt’s new administrative capital. The Chinese company has teamed up with Egyptian firms to operate and manage the largest hospital in the new administrative capital, which Chinese contractors are building outside of Cairo. (MIDDLE EAST MONITOR)

The Central Committee of China's influential Communist Youth League (CYL) published a rather comical (unintentionally of course) comparison between U.S. and Chinese engagement in Africa that made the case as to why China, not surprisingly, is the more optimal partner for the continent.

The arguments that the author, Yi Fan, lays out in the article are not particularly compelling as it's plainly evident she lacks even a basic understanding of U.S. policy in Africa. The extent of her reasoning is essentially China is good, the U.S. is bad, end of story -- so, substantively, there's not much here.

But that's not what's important. 

Narratives about the United States and Africa emanating from Communist Party entities like the CYL perform a very important role in Chinese society, by signaling to other media, social media users, and the society at large how to frame certain topics. 

In this case, China is the benevolent partner for Africa while the U.S. is an "unreliable, conspiring" actor motivated by "imperialism, colonialism, and racism." While it's easy to dismiss this kind of rhetoric as antiquated propaganda, that would be a mistake given how pervasive this kind of thinking is today across large swathes of Chinese public opinion.

The Four Reasons Why China, Not the U.S., is the Preferred Partner for Africa:

• COVID-19: "China is full of sincerity and the United States is fake and conspiring." Yi makes the argument that President Xi's one billion vaccine pledge at FOCAC was greeted with "thunderous applause." She contrasts that to the U.S. donation of just 94 million doses. This is disingenuous given that China's vaccines distributions (mostly sales) in Africa are about the same as those from the U.S., about 113 million.

  She also noted vaccine hoarding in the U.S. and the recent travel bans imposed on African countries in response to the Omicron variant as other reasons why the U.S. is bad (she conveniently did not mention that China effectively has a far more extensive travel ban in place by basically restricting all foreigners from entering the country).

• INVESTMENT: "China is pragmatic and efficient, while the U.S. is all talk." Rather than mentioning actual Chinese investment (where China does have a good story to tell), Yi mixed together Chinese infrastructure development (not investment, financed by loans), aid programs (again, not investment) and various technical missions (also, not investment) to contrast with the U.S. Power Africa initiative that she described as an "empty check." She also framed the U.S. focus on democracy and governance as "malicious."

• SUMMITS: "China has been doing it for a long time while the U.S. plays only a perfunctory role." Yi highlighted China's previous eight FOCAC gatherings and called it "one of the most eye-catching strategic cooperation mechanisms of the 21st century" while dismissing Blinken's plans for a U.S.-Africa summit next year. She points to the fact that the Secretary has only visited the continent once since he's stepped into his role as proof of the U.S.'s lack of commitment.

• PATERNALISM: "China treats other countries as equals, while the U.S. acts like a "teacher." Here Yi uses the situation in Ethiopia to argue that the U.S.'s intension to sanction the country in response to the ongoing conflict is emblematic of Washington's paternalistic attitude towards Africa and proof of an attitude that it, not Africans, knows best. She calls the U.S. criticism of other countries on human rights and democracy grounds hypocritical, because of its treatment of Black Americans. In contrast, she claims that China is a "reliable partner" who treats Africa as a "friend and brother."

Read the full article on the Central Committee of the Communist Youth League WeChat page.

Nigeria's total debt, both external and domestic, edged up by 4% to $92.6 billion as of the end of September according to the latest data from the Debt Management Office (DMO). 

The DMO said the increase was due largely to the government's $4 billion Eurobond issuance earlier this year that was used to fortify the country's foreign exchange reserves and to prevent the naira from depreciating the same way that the Kenyan shilling has for the past year.

Although Nigeria's total debt has been steadily rising this year, it's not because it's borrowing more from China. In fact, the share of Nigeria's debt owed to China is actually shrinking as Abuja borrows more from the bond markets and elsewhere. Currently, Nigeria owes Chinese creditors, mostly the China Exim Bank, $3.121 billion which now accounts for just 3.3% of the country's total outstanding debt.

However, that may soon change. On Tuesday, the House of Representatives approved President Muhammadu Buhari's request to borrow $5.8 billion from various international lenders including the China Exim Bank and the Bank of China among others. That money would be used to finance new infrastructure development, with almost half going to an upgrade of the country's electrical grid.

It's important to note that just because the Nigerian legislature approves the Federal Government's plans to borrow more doesn't actually mean that Chinese creditors will be willing to provide the loans. 

Last month the Senate approved billions of dollars of new Chinese infrastructure loans that have yet to materialize. This latest measure approved by the House may also go unfunded so long as Chinese creditors remain apprehensive about financing large-scale infrastructure projects in Nigeria and elsewhere in Africa.

SUGGESTED READING:

• Reuters: Nigeria's debt rose to 38 trillion naira as of Sept -debt office by Chijioke Ohuocha
• This Day: Nigeria’s Debt to GDP still Low Says Finance Minister by Nume Ekeghe

Nigeria's high-profile and rather controversial transportation minister Rotimi Amaechi is under mounting pressure from political allies to run for president in the upcoming election scheduled for 2023.

And if he does run, there are indications he's going to put new Chinese-financed and constructed infrastructure like the Lagos-to-Ibadan standard gauge railway at the center of his campaign.

Amaechi is a strong proponent of taking on more Chinese debt to finance critical infrastructure like railways, ports, and highways. But, that has also put him in the hot seat over concerns that Nigeria is borrowing too much from China. Some critics argue (incorrectly) that these loans also jeopardize the country's sovereignty.

U.S. and Chinese state-backed media outlets are once again exchanging fire over a Chinese-backed railway project in the Global South... but this time it's not the Standard Gauge Railway in Kenya, instead, it's Hanoi's brand new subway in Vietnam that is at the center of yet another great power controversy.

This latest squabble began on Monday when VOA published a story that claimed the new metro is "hobbled by [a] lack of riders." VOA cited first-day ticket sales of just 12,000 or 8% of capacity as evidence of the apparent hesitation that Hanoians have towards their new Chinese-built subway.

Not surprisingly, that didn't sit well with editors at the nationalist Chinese tabloid Global Times who countered the VOA report by accusing "Western media" or propagating "shameless lies." They noted that it's unreasonable to measure the success of a project like this solely on first-day ticket sales given that local residents are still unfamiliar with the metro and that it will take time to finalize bus connections to the various subway stops to make the rail line more convenient.

SUGGESTED READING:

• Voice of America: Vietnam’s First Metro, in Hanoi, Hobbled by Lack of Riders
• Global Times: Western media's lies about Vietnam metro project are shameless

Secretary of State Antony Blinken doesn't want developing countries to feel they have to choose between the U.S. and China. He also wants to discourage these countries from building costly low-quality infrastructure and vowed that Washington will now be more committed to their region.

Sound familiar? 

Blinken raised those themes in what was described as a major policy address on Tuesday at Universitas Indonesia in the capital Jakarta.

Much like in Africa, Blinken and his boss, U.S. President Joe Biden, have faced considerable criticism for not paying sufficient attention to the region. And, just as his recent three-nation tour of Africa was Blinken's first visit to the continent as Secretary, this week's three-nation-trip to Southeast Asia is also his first to the ASEAN region.

In both places, Blinken sought to dispel the widely-held perception that Washington had ceded influence to Beijing, especially in the realms of trade and infrastructure.

He touched on the need for a "free and open Indo-Pacific" and the threats that China posed to the "rules-based order," but there was very little that was especially noteworthy in the speech. He did not introduce any new financial commitments, trade initiatives, infrastructure projects, or updated security arrangements, prompting a lot of observers to feel underwhelmed by the address.

"A check-the-box ... doubt you'll remember anything specific from the text come next Tuesday," noted Evan Feigenbaum, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and one of Washington's most prominent U.S-Asia watchers.

Key China Highlights From Blinken's Address on U.S. Policy in the Indo-Pacific:

• INFRASTRUCTURE: "We’re hearing increasing concerns from government officials, industry, labor, and communities in the Indo-Pacific about what happens when infrastructure isn’t done right, like when it’s awarded through opaque, corrupt processes, or built by overseas companies that import their own labor, extract resources, pollute the environment, and drive communities into debt."

• U.S. vs. CHINA: "Let me be clear about one thing: the goal of defending the rules-based order is not to keep any country down. Rather, it’s to protect the right of all countries to choose their own path, free from coercion, free from intimidation. It’s not about a contest between a U.S.-centric region or a China-centric region. The Indo-Pacific is its own region."

• CYBER GOVERNANCE: "We’ll work with our partners to shape the rules of the growing digital economy on key issues like data privacy and security, but in a way that reflects our values, and unlocks opportunities for our people. Because if we don’t shape them, others will. And there’s a good chance they’ll do it in a way that doesn’t advance our shared interests or our shared values."

SUGGESTED READING:

• United States Department of State: Transcript of Secretary of State Antony Blinken's address "A Free and Open Indo-Pacific"
• Reuters: Blinken heads to Southeast Asia to deepen cooperation on China pushback by Humeyra Pamuk and David Brunnstrom

The new $6 billion, 1,000-kilometer China-Laos railway that opened a couple of weeks ago is widely seen as the most visible evidence of Beijing's push to expand its presence in Southeast Asia. The railway's debut came just before U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited the region for the first time since the Biden administration took office.

Blinken is now on a three-nation tour of the region. He's vowed that the U.S. will challenge China's "aggressive actions" in the Asia-Pacific region. 

But the tougher rhetoric from Blinken and other U.S. officials doesn't seem like it's having much effect. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin brushed aside Blinken's comments at Tuesday's press briefing in Beijing and scholars don't seem too worried that the United States is going to mount a meaningful challenge to China in this part of the world.

"Don’t expect ASEAN to stand on the U.S.'s side against China," said Huang Renwei, executive vice president of the Fudan Institute for the Belt and Road and Global Governance in Shanghai.

The new Laos railway, said Huang, is part of a larger effort to link China with ASEAN countries in such a way that creates inseparable interdependence via trade, logistics, and the movement of goods and people.

Like many scholars today in China, Huang was outwardly dismissive of the U.S.: "It's very simple. The benefits from China and the benefits from the United States are incomparable. The closer other countries are to the United States, the less safe they become; the closer they are to China, the faster they will develop."

Read the full interview with Huang Renwei on the Observer website (in Chinese).

The unsubstantiated claim by the U.S. military that China is considering Equatorial Guinea as the location of its next military base in Africa is widely gaining traction among U.S. and European journalists, scholars, and analysts despite the fact that there is still no evidence to verify the Pentagon's assertion.

A recent Wall Street Journal article quoted unnamed American officials and offered no other countervailing perspectives from Chinese military analysts who could provide badly-needed context. Yet many otherwise credible institutions seem willing to use the article as proof that the PLA is, in fact, building a base in Equatorial Guinea.

"A permanent Chinese military installation in Equatorial Guinea is the culmination of nearly a decade’s investment in Africa," declared European Council on Foreign Relations Associate Senior Policy Fellow Michaël Tanchum in a column today that didn't qualify the Pentagon claim in any way - it seemingly took it as fact.

Similarly, the conservative Washington Examiner website said unequivocally "Chinese access to [the] Atlantic is inevitable" -- also without providing any evidence or editorial balance from Chinese security analysts who would likely be skeptical of the U.S. military's claim.

It's notable how, 19 years after the U.S. invasion of Iraq that was also based on unsubstantiated claims, supported by media, think tanks, and others who took the U.S. government at its word and embraced the WMD fiction, the lessons from that experience are apparently being overlooked.

Key Highlights of the Latest Coverage & Commentary on the Equatorial Guinea Base Story:

• CHINA'S OVERLAPPING INTERESTS: "The construction of a Chinese naval base in Equatorial Guinea has wider implications than merely a cautionary tale of Beijing’s debt-trap diplomacy... The pursuit of large-scale commercial infrastructure signals strategic intent, and the expansion of China’s military presence across Africa in the wake of the BRI is not unexpected.

  "Beijing’s adroit interweaving of economic soft power and hard power has produced a symbiosis between the growing number of Chinese commercial enterprises across Africa and the proliferation of China’s new security arrangements across the continent. While economics played the lead role in this military-economic development complex, the dynamics appear to be entering a new phase" -- Michaël Tanchum, European Council on Foreign Relations Associate Senior Policy Fellow (READ MORE)

• ECONOMIC TO MILITARY ASSETS: "Chinese Communist officials have invested in dozens of ports across Africa, creating a network of economic relationships that could develop into military assets as the U.S.-China competition develops" -- Joel Gehrke, Foreign Affairs Reporter at the Washington Examiner (READ MORE)

SUGGESTED READING:

• The Wall Street Journal: China Seeks First Military Base on Africa’s Atlantic Coast, U.S. Intelligence Finds by Michael M. Philipps
• The China Global South Project: Pentagon Spokesman Struggles to Explain Claim That China is Planning to Build a Military Base in Equatorial Guinea