The Chinese internet is currently fact-checking the many experts whose failed predictions about the U.S.-Iran situation were heavily clouded by nationalism.
The killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has upended their narrative that the U.S. and Israel would never dare to strike. Now, the public is calling out these pundits for their poor judgment.
The one that got the most attention after it went viral was a clip from Li Li, a prominent national defense professor at China’s National Defense University, who appeared on state-owned broadcaster CCTV and said confidently that Iran’s ability to “destroy Israel within half an hour” would deter U.S. potential attacks.
Professor Li said even though Israel is extremely capable on the defense front, the country lacks “strategic depth” and that could be something that Iran can break through. And because of that, the U.S. will seriously consider any major offense to the Islamic Republic.
Commentator Liu Heping of Zhi News, a new media channel owned by Shenzhen TV, a public broadcaster, also said in a video that “Trump does not plan to intervene militarily in Iran.”
He said that after U.S. President Donald Trump massed troops around waters near Iran, many believed an attack was inevitable. However, he does not believe Trump will strike, arguing instead that the move reflects an extreme pressure tactic through military buildup. He added that Trump approaches the issue with a “businessman’s mindset.”
It is also worth noting that Shen Yi, a prominent international relations scholar at Fudan University who is also controversial in China for his nationalist and populist rhetoric, was cited by some internet users for his earlier remarks that it would be extremely difficult for the U.S. to fully control Tehran or cultivate a pro-Western regime there.
In his own program, Shen Yi Observation (沈逸观察), Shen further stressed that the U.S. has underestimated Iran’s resilience and mistakenly believes that Tehran will give up simply because of Tehran’s military showing off.
Shen has not made any factually incorrect judgments on the U.S.–Iran situation to date. However, a clip from his interview circulated widely online under the headline “Shen Yi: Why the U.S. dares not attack Iran”, a phrasing he never used.
WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? China’s nationalist commentators initially projected strong pro-Iran and anti-U.S. and Israeli sentiment. However, once the conflict unfolded, moderate and liberal Chinese internet users quickly began mocking these assessments. The episode highlights the complexity and internal diversity of China’s political and analytical spectrum on international affairs, even under stringent internet controls, and suggests that foreign-policy debates online are more pluralistic and contested than is often assumed.
