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Betting on Beijing: How a Diplomatic Switch Sank Honduras’s Shrimp Exports

In 2023, Honduras severed ties with Taiwan and recognized China, betting that access to one of the world’s largest markets would bring new prosperity. The move was hailed by President Xiomara Castro’s government as a strategic step toward bigger trade deals and deeper economic cooperation. 
Non-Resident Fellow for Latin America and the Caribbean
The China-Global South Project
Betting on Beijing: How a Diplomatic Switch Sank Honduras’s Shrimp Exports
An employee shows the shrimp that is exported to Taiwan in Choluteca, Honduras on April 4, 2023. "We don't want them to stop business with Taiwan," Lorena de Jesus Zelaya, 51, who works in a shrimp packing plant, complained to AFP. (Photo by Orlando SIERRA / AFP)
In 2023, Honduras severed ties with Taiwan and recognized China, betting that access to one of the world’s largest markets would bring new prosperity. The move was hailed by President Xiomara Castro’s government as a strategic step toward bigger trade deals and deeper economic cooperation.  ...

Amid Fuel Shortages, Cuba Looks to China for Energy Solutions

Cuba is in the middle of a profound energy crisis — and China sees an opening. As Havana struggles with crumbling infrastructure, dwindling oil imports, and a decades-long economic downturn, Beijing is stepping in to fill the void left by its traditional allies, Russia and Venezuela. The ...

Small State, Big Gains: Why Dominica Matters in China’s Global Strategy

In contemporary international relations, the diplomacy of small states is of utmost importance. Though grand geopolitical narratives often overshadow this fact, one major power has not forgotten: China. Putting aside its broader strategic objectives, Beijing has excelled in small-state diplomacy. The numbers don’t lie; China has the ...

Huawei Out, Washington In: Panama’s 5G Reset

When the U.S. Embassy in Panama announced in June that telecommunications equipment from Huawei—a Chinese tech giant—would be replaced with “secure American technology” at 13 sites across the country, it was more than a routine tech upgrade. It was a clear signal. 

Brazil’s BRICS Balancing Act Faces a New Test in Rio

The 17th BRICS Summit kicks off this weekend in Rio de Janeiro, but preserving the group’s original mantra of non-alignment is proving to be a challenge for Brazil, the summit’s host. Since returning to power, President Luis Inácio Lula da Silva ...

In China, Ecuador’s Noboa Looks for Breathing Room and Bargains

With a tightening fiscal clock and the weight of geopolitical balancing on his shoulders, Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa touched down in China last week with more than just a forum appearance on his agenda. His trip to the 2025 Summer Davos Forum in Tianjin doubled as a ...

How Paraguay’s Veto Power Could Reshape China’s Trade Future in South America

Amid a flurry of headline-grabbing geopolitical developments, one story has flown largely under the radar: several recent signals from within Paraguay suggest a potential shift in the country’s long-standing diplomatic relationship with Taiwan. While it might seem like just another chapter in the long-running contest between Beijing ...

New Corridor, New Strategy: China’s Bi-Oceanic Railway and Latin America’s Trade Route Battleground

A series of geopolitical pressures is forcing China to rethink its approach to Latin America’s strategic waterways. Since U.S. President Donald Trump returned to office, Washington has stepped up efforts to curtail Chinese influence in the Panama Canal, a vital artery for global trade and military logistics. ...

U.S. Influence Tested as Colombia Embraces China’s BRI

Colombia’s move to join the Beijing-led Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) marks a significant shift in the strategic competition between China and the United States in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). At a moment when the U.S. is seeking to counter China’s influence in the region, ...

China–Latin America Dialogue Collides With U.S. Trade Offensive

The upcoming 4th Ministerial Meeting of the China–CELAC Forum (CELAC is the Spanish acronym for Community of Latin American and Caribbean States) will take place in Beijing later this month against the backdrop of growing strategic rivalry—some would say open confrontation—between the United States and China. In ...

China–Latin America Dialogue Collides With U.S. Trade Offensive

The upcoming 4th Ministerial Meeting of the China–CELAC Forum (CELAC is the Spanish acronym for Community of Latin American and Caribbean States) will take place in Beijing later this month against the backdrop of growing strategic rivalry—some would say open confrontation—between the United States and China. In ...

From Neutral Ground to Strategic Asset: The Shifting Politics of the Panama Canal

By Alonso Illueca, CGSP Non-Resident Fellow for Latin America and the Caribbean The recent visit by United States Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth to Panama marked the latest chapter in the ongoing strategic standoff between Washington and Beijing. From U.S. President ...

Ports, Power, and Politics: Behind the High-Stakes Battle Over CK Hutchison’s Panama Deal

By Alonso Illueca, CGSP Non-Resident Fellow for Latin America and the Caribbean This week, a multibillion-dollar deal was set to shift control of some 43 ports across 23 countries—but now, it’s at the center of an escalating geopolitical battle. The agreement ...