We start this issue of the ChinaMed Observer with the debate in Iranian media over the signing of the Iran-China 25-year Cooperation Program. In this regard, Abolfazl Olamayifar, Director of the China Desk at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, from the pages of the economic newspaper Donya-ye Eqtesad, addressed some of the concerns raised lately over the cooperation document, including the reasons behind the perceived secrecy of its details and the fear of granting excessive concessions to China, thus undermining Iran’s independence.
Olamayifar stated clearly that not one of these concerns have any foundation, as the signed document is a roadmap, in which “the two countries have agreed on outlining a shared vision for a long-term cooperation plan”, and that does not mention any numbers, or binding contracts. Moreover, he affirmed that this document is a great opportunity to take advantage of the cooperation with China, especially in the economic and political fields, vis-à-vis the Western countries’ weakness in dealing with the coronavirus pandemic and in supporting the revival of the JCPOA.
The hopes for the potential of this envisioned future cooperation are also shared by the CEO of the Chabahar Free-Trade Zone Organization, Abdolrahim Kordi, who sees in the development of the port of Chabahar the “intersection of the two economies of Iran and China”. According to him, this document could bring forth numerous development projects in the area, such as the developments of the petrochemical complexes in Chabahar and Makran, and the railway network connected to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Thus, Chabahar and the surrounding Makran region could become a great trade hub on the Indian Ocean and boost the regional economy in the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
However, there are some who call for a more cautious approach to the matter. For example, Kourosh Ahmadi, a former diplomat and expert on international affairs, claimed that this type of strategic partnership, that does not consider any numbers or binding executive agreements, cannot have a substantial impact on the relations between the two countries, nor on the conflict between the United States and China. Referring to the figures of the trade volume between Iran and China, which, from 52 billion dollars in 2014, decreased to 20 billion dollars in 2020, Ahmadi stated that “as long as the sanctions are not lifted and the problems between the Financial Action Task Force and Iran persist, […], the volume of exchanges cannot increase”. Similarly, Ahmadi also believes that this document will not have a great influence on the ongoing negotiations regarding the revival of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) because, although China and Russia are encouraging the parties to resolve their controversies, the need of the re-negotiation of the nuclear treaty was already in both Iran’s and the United States’ agendas.
On the contrary, a new study by the president of the International Institute for Iranian Studies, Dr. Mohammed Saqr al Sulami, considers the Iran-China cooperation agreement and the return to the nuclear talks among the indicators of the increasing US-China strategic competition in the Middle East. This is because, according to al Sulami, the policies of the two global powers take shape as strategies of “action and reaction”. Meaning that, to the United States “heading East policy” to counter Chinese economic expansion and access to energy resources, China will respond by “going West” to “create geopolitical complexities in Washington’s areas of influence”. In fact, this study foresees that the countries of the region will face increasing tensions created by American military supremacy and China’s economic clout. Against this background, the comments made by Qatar’s former Prime Minister, Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani, are extremely interesting. He said that the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council will be particularly vulnerable to the tensions between China and the United States, unless they “achieve clear understandings, take practical measures, and act according to the dictates of [their] common interests and not the interests of others.”
Egypt-Ethiopia Dam Dispute
According to Twaseef al-Maqbal, a journalist with the al-Riyadh newspaper, the struggle between the great powers is also one of the causes of the diplomatic deadlock over the future of the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The countries involved in the process, namely the United States, China, and Israel, she wrote, “do not object to the implementation of the project and it will serve their interests without exception.” While Israel would benefit from the weakening of its neighbor, al-Maqbal wrote, China might be more concerned with the protection of its investments in and relations with key regional players, such as Ethiopia. The United States is also trying to preserve its political influence.
So far, both Beijing and Washington stated their support for a diplomatic solution to the dispute. According to al-Maqbal, although Egypt had previously called for a US-led mediation, appealing to China might be more effective because it is the country with the largest regional influence, at least in economic terms. After all, Sudan has already been seeking Chinese support on the issue. Against this background, it is interesting to read a series of articles written by Kamal Gaballah for al-Ahram Gate on the occasion of the anniversary of the establishment of Sino-Egyptian relations that show some potential cracks between Beijing and Cairo. In particular, the writer pointed out that, while Egypt assists China in all its sensitive issues, Egyptians expected the Asian country to take a position on the dispute over the GERD and, in one way or the other, sustain Egypt and Sudan against Ethiopia in the UN Security Council. However, with the failure of the Security Council to find a solution to the issue and the perception that the relations between Egypt and China are not deep enough, some begin to think that there might be a silent crisis going on between the two countries.
Turkey: Uyghurs and Vaccines Complicate Ties With China
Similarly, the tension between Turkey and China seems to grow. As reported by the Sozcu Gazetesi, there has been another clash between the leader of the Good Party, Meral Akşener, the Mayor of Ankara, Mansur Yavas, who commemorated the Baren Township conflict in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, and the Chinese Embassy, that invited them to respect China’s territorial integrity. However, according to the Greek journalist Giorgos Pavlopoulos, the real reason behind the cooler relations between Ankara and Beijing, and the resort of the former to the problematic Uygur issue, would be the failure of the Chinese “vaccine diplomacy”. Indeed, Turkey, which has relied on Sinovac for its vaccination campaign, has received, so far, less than half of the 100 million doses that it ordered from the pharmaceutical company. This could be used by President Erdogan as a bargaining tool against China, especially now that Turkey is once again reaching out to the United States.
Chinese Investors Concerned Over How COVID Will Impact Greek Port Operations
We conclude with latest the developments in the Port of Piraeus. According to the Greek newspaper NewMoney.gr, the Piraeus Port Authority (PPA) succeeded in maintaining a smooth continuation to the port activities and in attracting new investments for a total worth of 221.7 million euros, despite the coronavirus pandemic. However, the Chinese partner is concerned that the stagnation in the construction of Pier IV and the crisis between the contracting company COSCO may undermine the pre-eminence of the Greek port over its Mediterranean counterparts, above all the ports of Valencia and Tangier, which are currently implementing their containment capacities.
China Looks at the Mediterranean
In looking for a common theme in the commentaries written by Chinese journalists and scholars in April, it is clear that there is great concern in China about the evolution of many of the crises that are taking place in the wider Mediterranean region. From the situation in Libya to the Greek-Turkish tensions, from the elections in Israel to instability in Jordan and the slow progression of talks in Vienna on the Iranian nuclear issue and the related American sanctions–Chinese analysts are rather pessimistic about the foreseeable future.
Chinese Views on Regional Stability in the Mideast
Liu Zhongmin, the Director of Middle East Studies Institute at Shanghai International Studies University, wrote an overview of the situation in an article published by Xinhua’s Globe. According to him, two factors prevent the continuation of existing crises and the breaking of new ones.
First is that extra-regional actors are increasingly less willing and/or capable of influencing local dynamics. This, according to Liu, is especially the case of the United States, Russia, and European countries. The United States has not decided whether to leave or remain the dominant power, and this ambiguity has undermined its influence. As to Russia, “its return to the Middle East mainly took place at the ‘tactical’ level. Russia does not have the ability and willingness to fully dominate the region, nor does it have the ability to provide public goods for the region from any point of view.” The European attempts to integrate the Mediterranean region through the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership and the Union for the Mediterranean have clearly failed while even the strongest European countries have lost their capability to act independently from the United States. At the same time, “rising and economic powers” like China, India, and Japan are expanding their influence but they have little interest in doing more than pursuing their economic and energy interests.
The second, related factor that Liu describes is the growing activism of regional powers. The Mediterranean Sea, the Gulf, and the Red Sea now form a “geopolitical triangle” that is plagued by continuous competition among different countries. Interestingly, Liu concludes his analysis saying that regional stability requires the countries there to focus more on economic development at home, and extra-regional powers to start promoting “justice and fairness” in the solution of the regional crises.
Liu elaborated more about the negative role of extra-regional powers, especially the United States, in two other articles on Iran’s role in the Syrian conflict that the contacts between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Liu argues that sectarian divisions are an important factor in the relations within the Muslim world, but their negative influence has largely been amplified by the United States. Essentially, the Americans have leveraged those tensions to shift the focus of geopolitical competition in the region from being in favor or against American presence, to sectarian primacy. According to him, Iran’s support to the Syrian government has little to do with the struggle between Sunni and Shia forces. Iran is simply protecting itself against the United States by supporting another government that share a similar position vis-à-vis Washington. Against this background, Liu also believes that the talks between the Saudi and the Iranian governments are not completely surprising. If the two countries can put aside the sectarian struggle fueled by the United States, their rapprochement would greatly contribute to regional stability.
Skeptical About Progress in U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks
For the moment, however, the situation remains rather bleak. When it comes to the talks in Vienna between Iran and the other parties to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Chinese scholars do not believe there will be much progress soon because both Iranian and American negotiators and leaders are under pressure at home to appear tough. Hence, as summarized by the Director of the CICIR Institute of Middle East Studies, Niu Xinchun, “the problem of who makes the first step toward reaching an agreement is far from being the only obstacle.” The real issue is that Iran sees the revival of the JCPOA as the end of American sanctions and pressure; the Americans, instead, look at that as the first step toward the reconstruction of a multilateral system to constrain Iranian moves. While both sides must find ways to continue their dialogue, it is the United States that has to take the initiative and immediately return to the JCPOA. This, wrote Fudan University’s Sun Degang, must happen quickly, before the Iranian presidential election of June.
Chinese Scholars’ Increasingly Dark View of Events in the Middle East
One of the issues that Chinese scholars identified as important to understand the American position in the negotiations with Iran is Israel’s pressure on the Biden administration. And Israel is increasingly seen as prey of right-wing populism as the possibility that the country will hold its fifth election since 2019 looks large. This is because Netanyahu has increasingly tied himself to ultra-right-wing forces that push for a very assertive policy toward the Palestinians. According to Zhu Zhaoyi, the director of the Israel Research Center at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing, the chances that new elections will be held and that the governments emerging out of them will be weak are extremely high as long as Netanyahu does not take a step back from Israeli politics. Jordan is also seen as a country that is going through a period of transition and instability, as symbolized by the voices of an attempt coup led by Prince Hamza. Zhang Yuan, a researcher at Shanghai International Studies University, told to The Paper that the reforms promised by the Jordanian king during the Arab Spring are not enough to solve the country’s problems. Zhang agrees with foreign experts about the fact that the alleged coup attempt is the harbinger of a larger political and economic crisis that might soon break out, though it remains difficult to determine when and how that could happen. Similarly, Chinese scholars have the impression that something tragic might happen between Greece and Turkey as the European Union and NATO have failed to constrain Erdogan’s Turkey.
Against this background, it is interesting to read a statement made by Qin Tian, a researcher at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, about China’s capabilities to intervene in the region. In an article on Wang Yi’s March trip to the Middle East, Qin highlights China’s growing participation in regional politics. However, he adds that “China’s overall understanding and research about the Middle East is not deep” and this undermines the implementation of Chinese foreign policy toward that region.
