Trump’s latest tariffs aren’t just an attack on Southeast Asia — they’re a calculated strike at China’s economic flank.
These tariffs aren’t just numbers on paper — they threaten factory closures, job losses, and social unrest. In the long run, that instability could backfire on U.S. interests, too.
Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said ASEAN is preparing joint action in response to new U.S. tariffs as regional leaders coordinate their positions to present a united front.
“So, my task, the Foreign Affairs Ministry, and the relevant ministers are to contact our friends in ASEAN so that each country can state its position, but at the same time, we move together as a group,” Anwar said on Monday.
He said he also had spoken with Vietnam’s Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh to discuss ASEAN joint action.
Indonesia’s top minister, Airlangga Hartarto, said the ASEAN trade ministers will convene next Friday to discuss U.S. tariffs, but they will focus on negotiation rather than retaliation.
Why a United ASEAN Response Won’t Work
Should ASEAN respond as a group, it is likely futile.
The Trump administration is unlikely to care. The tariffs target countries individually, not ASEAN as a bloc.
This approach renders any regional rebuttal irrelevant in Washington’s calculus. Regional solidarity holds no sway in a policy shaped by bilateral pressure.
A joint position under ASEAN is the best way to go, but the response will ultimately be individual.
ASEAN’s Divisions Are Its Weakest Link
ASEAN’s biggest challenge is from within, quietly fracturing along strategic lines: between countries leaning toward China and those aligning more closely with the United States.
According to the 2025 State of Southeast Asia survey by the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute, public sentiment across the region is almost evenly split: 52% favor the U.S., while 48% prefer China. That razor-thin margin has shifted in recent years — proof that neither superpower can decisively claim Southeast Asia.
But the split runs deeper than public sentiment. It’s embedded in how Southeast Asia trades, builds, and grows.
Most ASEAN economies export heavily to the U.S., but their supply chains still run through China.
Vietnam enjoys a significant trade surplus with the U.S. — but its factories depend on Chinese investments, parts, and materials. Nearly a third of Cambodia’s trade is with China, its largest investor and infrastructure financier.
This is Southeast Asia’s hidden vulnerability: The same China-linked supply chains that powered its growth now risk becoming a source of instability.
If those links are disrupted—through tariffs, geopolitical pressure, or trade wars—the region will face factory shutdowns, job losses, and social unrest.
As U.S.-China tensions escalate, some ASEAN states may see little choice but to slide closer to Beijing. Data suggests that’s already happening.
More than 70% of survey respondents in Malaysia and Indonesia now favor China over the U.S. Meanwhile, the strongest pro-U.S. sentiment remains in the Philippines (86.4%) and Vietnam (73.5%).
Southeast Asia isn’t just being squeezed from the outside. It’s being pulled apart from within.
ASEAN Moves Slow — By Design
ASEAN is slow to change—not for lack of will but by design. Its consensus-driven model is cautious and deliberate and ill-suited for fast-moving crises.
Built for diplomacy, not confrontation, the bloc lacks the agility this moment demands.
This is also a warning sign if the next crisis erupts in the South China Sea.
President Prabowo and Prime Minister Anwar are trying hard to respond — a reflection of their boldness and persistence in defying the odds, this time their internal odds.
Even if ASEAN member states mustered the political will to act swiftly, Respond as who? A bloc where the Philippines is 86% pro-U.S., and Indonesia is 72% pro-China? These aren’t policy gaps; they are strategic fault lines.
Southeast Asians themselves recognize the problem. The ISEAS survey shows that 35% of respondents believe the bloc is too slow and ineffective to handle today’s volatile geopolitical and economic climate.
The region feels stuck, caught between China and the U.S., struggling with internal divisions, and afraid of losing control over its future.
This Is Dialogue Diplomacy, Not Crisis Management
ASEAN can talk about unity all it wants, but when it comes to action, every country is on its own. The bloc was built for dialogue and consensus-building, not for fighting trade wars as a single front.
A joint position may keep the family photo intact — a gesture for the cameras — but tariffs don’t hit in theory; they hit factories, workers, and voters.
No leader in Jakarta, Hanoi, or Bangkok is about to outsource their national response to ASEAN when their economy is on the line.
In the end, ASEAN was designed so member states could talk together — not act together.
