Remember “no blood for oil”? Decades ago, the slogan emblematized opposition to the U.S. invasion of Iraq. Its logic subsequently shifted as the United States experienced a gas and oil revolution thanks to fracking.
It has cycled back into relevance following the Trump administration’s invasion of Venezuela and the seizure of its oil, which, despite its carnivalesque tone, left at least 80 people dead. The Iran war has now ...
Category: Fellows
What to Watch After China’s Strategic Setback at the Panama Canal
On Thursday last week, Panama’s Supreme Court delivered a ruling that was felt in some of the highest offices in both Beijing and Washington. The court declared that the concession granting control of the Balboa and Cristobal ports to Panama Ports Company, a subsidiary of Hong Kong-based ...
U.S. Defense Strategy Signals a Harder Line on China in Latin America
In January, the Trump Administration published its 2026 National Defense Strategy (NDS). The document, which was released without fanfare, confirms that a strategic shift is well underway in the Western Hemisphere, and Latin American and Caribbean states are on the receiving end of that shift.
China’s 2026 Challenge in Latin America and the Caribbean
2025 was a rather tumultuous year for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Donald Trump’s return to the White House exacerbated geopolitical dynamics in the region, particularly in the realm of the U.S.-China strategic competition. From tariffs to claims that China ...
China-Central Asia in 2026: From Resource Access to Structured Interdependence
2025 marked an important inflection point in China-Central Asia relations. Not because China’s presence in the region was new, since Beijing has been a significant economic actor for more than a decade, but because the composition and structure of that engagement began to change in more visible ...
Why Honduras’ Presidential Election Matters for China and Taiwan
More than three weeks after elections were held, Honduras still does not have a new president. Nasry Asfura of the conservative National Party leads by a narrow margin, with roughly 43,000 more votes than his closest competitor, Salvador Nasralla of the Liberal Party. ...
Analysis from Cobus van Staden
Panama’s Diplomatic Tightrope: One China, Beijing’s Red Lines, and the Politics of a Taiwan Trip
On November 13, 2025, amid reports of a possible visit by members of Panama’s National Assembly to Taiwan, the president of Panama, José Raúl Mulino tweeted that such a trip did not have the support or approval of his government. The tweet triggered a chain of ...
China’s Digital Payment Push Gains Ground in Uzbekistan
Competition among Chinese companies in Central Asia is not limited to the electric vehicle sector or the renewable energy industry. It is equally intense in the field of digital payments, where tech giants Alipay and WeChat Pay together handle more than ninety percent of mobile transactions ...
Chile’s Election Puts China’s Lithium Ambitions to the Test
The Lithium Triangle is one of the most important geostrategic sectors in the Latin American landscape. Spanning through Chile, Argentina and Bolivia, the Lithium Triangle is home to between 60 to 75% of the earth’s known lithium reserves and is the centerpiece of the global energy ...
The Perception Problem: Why Central Asians Remain Skeptical of Chinese Investment
Over the past decade, China has poured billions into the Central Asian countries, financing infrastructure, renewable energy, agriculture, and digital technologies, while presenting itself as a reliable development partner. Central Asian governments, eager for investment and diversification, have embraced China as a strategic ally in trade and ...
China-Central Asia Weekly News: New Seaport Development, BYD Battery Localization in Uzbekistan, and Healthcare Cooperation
This is a free preview of the upcoming Critical Minerals Weekly Digest, part of the new CGSP Intelligence service launching in 2026. Chinese engagement with Central Asia is advancing through a combination of transport infrastructure development, automotive industry expansion, and medical ...
China and LAC at Odds: Blue Diplomacy in the Era of IUU Fishing
In China’s engagement with the Global South, climate diplomacy is one area where Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries play a particularly decisive role. The Global South is set to be disproportionately affected by climate change, yet its governments must negotiate solutions with the world’s largest emitters—China ...
China-Central Asia Weekly News: Managing Friction, Sanctions, and Local Benefits
This is a free preview of the upcoming Critical Minerals Weekly Digest, part of the new CGSP Intelligence service launching in 2026. Chinese engagement in Central Asia is facing several friction points that highlight the social and geopolitical complexities behind its ...