This is a free preview of the upcoming Critical Minerals Weekly Digest, part of the new CGSP Intelligence service launching in Summer 2025.
Introduction
This week’s developments signal a turning point in global cobalt supply chains from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) replacing a cobalt export ban with a tighter quota system, to Glencore offering to sell one its major copper/cobalt assets in the DRC, to the U.S. government contemplating a direct stake in domestic lithium production, and Europe launching its first large-scale rare earth magnets facility. Meanwhile, China continues to break new ground and reshape the supply chains of critical resources like antimony through strategic investment in Tajikistan.
This Week in Critical Minerals
DRC Ends Cobalt Export Ban with Export Quotas
The Democratic Republic of Congo will lift its 7-month-long cobalt export ban from 16 October, replacing it with a quota system. The cobalt exporters will be allowed to ship out up to 18,125 tons of cobalt for the remainder of 2025, and an annual total of 96,600 tonnes in 2026–2027.
Why This Matters:
This policy change will continue to tighten the global cobalt supply and push up cobalt prices, as the allowable exports are less than half of what the DRC mined and exported in 2024. While the quota system could push the prices up, it will force large companies investing in DRC’s cobalt sector to consider alternative cobalt sources and invest heavily in cobalt production in Indonesia.
Glencore May Sell Stake in Kamoto Copper Company (DRC)
Glencore – a Swiss-based company – is talking to prospective buyers to sell its 75% controlling stake in Kamoto Copper Company (KCC), a major copper-cobalt operation in the DRC. Potential buyers include Orion Resource Partners and Rio Tinto.
Why This Matters
While this could potentially open opportunities for Western firms to buy the mine, it is unlikely that a US company would secure the deal, given that DRC is still considered a risky mining destination. American companies have less appetite to invest billions compared to Chinese firms. While the US government has shown interest in alternative cobalt sources free of Chinese control, secure cobalt mines in the DRC would not solve the refining and processing question, given that the US companies still rely heavily on Chinese refining. On the policy side, this underscores the urgency of “friend-shoring,” shifting critical supply chains toward allied jurisdictions
Tajikistan’s Antimony Rush and China’s deepening ties
Tajikistan has experienced an antimony rush, with Chinese companies emerging as critical players. Tajikistan is now the second-largest global exporter of antimony ore after China, with over 4,300 tonnes exported in the first nine months of 2024. This is due to China-backed joint ventures, such as at the Saritag mine.
Why This Matters
China strengthens its monopoly power by expanding production abroad while restricting exports at home. Tajikistan poses governance risks to the U.S., EU, and Japanese companies, raising questions about how they will build up supplies.
Lithium Americas in $2.26B Loan Talks with U.S. Government
Lithium Americas, a Canadian company, is currently in talks with the US Department of Energy for a $2.26 billion loan, which will help to develop the Thacker Pass lithium mine in Nevada. Their negotiations also include a possible stake of 5% to 10% for the U.S. government in the company.
Why This Matters
The US government’s possible ownership of the project signals that the US is now increasingly interested in taking a direct equity position in a critical minerals company in its quest to counter China’s near-monopoly over lithium processing and refining. While the U.S. still lacks refining scale, securing domestic raw material production is a crucial first step. From a financial perspective, these types of public-private partnerships that reduce capital risk for large-scale miners are likely to be the new model for Western companies.
Europe’s First Large-Scale Rare Earth Magnet Plant Opens (Estonia)
Neo’s First Magnet Plant—A Canadian-headquartered firm has officially opened Europe’s first rare earth magnet plant in Estonia. This facility, which will be dedicated to large-scale production of rare earth magnets for the automotive and wind energy industries, will cost $75 million to build.
Why This Matters
This facility shows how targeted public funding, regulatory alignment, and cross-border industrial partnerships facilitated by the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act can support exploration for new strategic projects. From a geopolitical perspective, this facility represents a step in Europe’s broader strategic autonomy agenda by reducing reliance on China.
In context
The DRC’s shift from an export ban to a quota system reasserts its centrality in the cobalt market but also heightens volatility in the sector, signalling the need for downstream firms to diversify supply away from high-risk jurisdictions. Further, Glencore’s potential divestment from Kamoto adds further complexity for the DRC but presents opportunities for Western companies to take up the space.
Additionally, China’s recent ties with Tajikistan deepen its control of the antimony sector, further accelerating its dominance in extraction abroad and processing at home while tightening export controls. These moves underscore why Western economies should accelerate the development of alternative supply chains. In this context, the US is adapting through current negotiations to support Lithium Americas with capital and potential equity. Similarly, Europe’s first magnet facility in Estonia reflects tangible progress under the Critical Raw Materials Act, serving as a model for building end-to-end value chains within allied territories, although this may take time.
