After four years of a warlike atmosphere on the disputed China–India border, Beijing and New Delhi reached an agreement to continue patrolling the border as they had been doing until 2020. Though the pact serves the strategic, economic and diplomatic interests of both sides, it only has a minor impact on the resolution of the dispute, which remains hindered by ‘structural fault lines’ between China and India.
China–India ties had been at a low point since June 2020, when at least 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers died in the Galwan Valley clash on the disputed border. In the wake of the conflict, both sides deployed tens of thousands of troops to the contested areas. Despite diplomatic efforts, tensions simmered, and economic relations suffered with no apparent end in sight.
21 October 2024 marked a watershed moment in the post-Galwan era of China–India relations. The Indian government announced that China and India reached an accord that would enable the two countries’ troops to patrol the border as they ‘had been doing till 2020’. The two sides subsequently initiated the withdrawal of troops in Depsang and Demchok, reportedly completed by the end of October 2024.
The agreement marks the end of a four-year military standoff on the disputed China–India border, driven by a confluence of strategic, diplomatic and economic factors on both sides.
For India on the strategic front, the border deal facilitates New Delhi’s effort to diversify its partners. Following the Galwan conflict, India bolstered strategic cooperation with the United States and other like-minded countries. Mending relations with China offsets this strategic tilt and fits neatly into India’s quest for ‘strategic autonomy’ as it prevents New Delhi from becoming overly dependent on the United States.
From an economic perspective, India’s post-Galwan approach of curtailing economic interaction with China needed a reset and restoring tranquillity on the border is constructive towards improving economic relations.
In terms of diplomacy, India’s ties with Western states are under strain over allegations of the Indian government violently pursuing Sikhs in the United States and Canada. Boosting diplomatic clout in Asia and the Global South counterbalances the pressure emanating from Western powers.
The pact also aids China’s strategic, economic and diplomatic ambitions. From a strategic angle, it counteracts India’s ‘strategic drift’ into the US orbit and undermines the potential of an anti-Chinese coalition established by these two states.
From an economic perspective, China benefits from steady access to a market of 1.45 billion people, which is likely to be maintained — or even improved — following the border patrol agreement. Access to the Indian market could become more important as trade tensions on the China–US and China–EU fronts deepen.
On the diplomatic level, the deal strengthens unity within BRICS — an international organization that started as a group consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa but expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates in 2024. China aims to turn BRICS into the ‘collective voice of the Global South’ and is advancing BRICS efforts to promote multipolarity and ‘global economic democratization.’ The pursuit of these goals requires unity between China and India, which is strengthened by the new border patrol agreement.
While the agreement serves the goals of both sides on the strategic, economic and diplomatic fronts, its impact is likely to be limited when it comes to resolving the border dispute. The accord allows China and India to defuse tensions at two specific friction points, but there are other contentious spots along the border where conflict could reemerge. Though the pact brings stability to the border, it is merely a precondition and not a guarantee of dispute resolution.
Even if the border stays stable, a final settlement on the disputed boundary continues to be thwarted by the ‘structural fault lines’ between China and India. As the two states concurrently rise, their enhanced power projection capacity on the border serves as a constant source of tension while their strategic activities in the Indo-Pacific perpetuate volatility in bilateral relations. Against this backdrop, the benefits of the pact are likely to emerge only incrementally over the next few years. Leaders on both sides have started to work toward the restoration of trust at successive high-level meetings. However, additional steps will be necessary to maintain tranquillity along the disputed border.
The China–India border patrol agreement serves both sides in the strategic, economic and diplomatic realms but is only a symbolic step towards solving the broader border dispute.
Daniel Balazs is a Research Fellow of the China Program at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University.
This article was originally published on East Asia Forum and republished under the Creative Commons BY NC ND license.
