It was during the recent meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa — just as the lights dimmed, Trump cued up a video presentation, and the whole encounter veered into political theater — when the question hit me: what is this all good for?
More precisely: what is Africa hoping to gain from the Trump administration? Why bother trying to appease a U.S. leadership whose very raison d’etre is to refuse theatrically to be appeased? Who would agree to an U.S. White House meeting knowing that they’ll only be ambushed?
The answer is, of course, people with something to save. South Africa has tens of thousands of jobs riding on somehow navigating the ever-changing tariff landscape. The shaky future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act’s preferential trade access to the U.S. market raises further uncertainty.
SA used to be the envy of the continent for having these investment and trade ties to the U.S. Now, those same ties are increasingly looking like a liability. The emerging reality is that countries may well be better off lessening their exposure to the U.S.
The Trump administration has already done much of that work for them – the on-the-ground presence of USAID is gone and much of the State Department’s footprint seems set to follow. With a few exceptions, U.S. companies are thin on the ground anyway. That leaves the U.S. military presence, but Trump may well turn against U.S. Africa Command, too.
The U.S. has effectively evacuated its presence from Africa, and perhaps it’s time for Africa to return the favor. It’s increasingly worth asking how the U.S. factors into the continent’s future plans. Does it really benefit Africa to keep pursuing trade and investment links with the U.S. in the current climate? Does it even make sense to keep sending its elites to study there, considering the growing crackdown on foreign students, and possible travel bans?
It may be time to wrap the U.S.-Africa relationship in foil and put it in the deep freeze for a few years. This isn’t to say that the relationship is dead (yet) but that the continent needs to regroup, and the U.S. needs to move through its current phase before there is much hope for concrete cooperation.
What has become clear over the last few months is that only those negotiating from a position of strength and unity will make any progress with the Trump administration. Trump has a bottomless appetite for value-extraction and public humiliation, and it’s very difficult for any single country to escape that logic.
Africa, unfortunately, is very far away from either strength or unity on the global stage. This makes me doubt the attempts by countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo or South Africa to strike individual deals. If a major U.S. ally like the United Kingdom couldn’t pull off more than a narrow, unsatisfying deal that left many tariffs in place, will these countries do better? There may be deals, but will they be good deals?
In the short term, Africa has three big priorities: to rapidly speed up its economic integration under the African Continental Free Trade Agreement, aggressively diversify its trade and investment relationships, and close the electricity gap holding the continent back.
The current trade war could paradoxically make the latter challenge easier, in that Chinese solar energy systems facing tariffs throughout the Global North could flood into the continent at lower prices, at a moment when the U.S.-China tension could also make Beijing amenable to facilitating green electrification in the name of South-South cooperation.
However, cooperation with China has its own complexities, and the continent should strategically avoid replicating earlier dependencies. Rather, it should further speed up building relationships with the Rising Rest: from the Gulf powers to Brazil to Indonesia and beyond.
Whatever a post-Trump U.S. will look like, the continent shouldn’t expect the return of earlier forms of assistance. Nor will trade and investment necessarily improve, even if the Democrats return to power.
The best hope is that Africa will be able to improve the deal it offers a future U.S. leader. To try and be a better and stronger continent, one with more internal cohesion and more options in the rest of the world is ultimately its strongest bet. Unfortunately, that fully depends on the shared political will and cooperation among African leaders, which puts a damper on any remaining hope and optimism.
For better or worse, Trump says the quiet parts out loud. He has made his view of Africa clear. The best the continent can do take him at his word and get on with its own business.
