China-Southeast Asia in 2026 Depends on Beijing’s Ability to Rise to the Occasion

Cambodian people welcome soldiers, who had been captured by Thai soldiers in July, as a bus passes by as they leave the premises of the former international airport in Phnom Penh on December 31, 2025. (Credit: TANG CHHIN SOTHY / AFP)

Southeast Asia’s relationship with China is set to face a convergence of diplomatic, political, and societal pressures in 2026. While Beijing remains one of the region’s most influential actors, its expanding economic footprint intersects with governance challenges and public discontent in several countries.

China is set to encounter major obstacles this year; some of its own making, such as its high-profile maritime disputes, and others rooted in the region’s broader instability, including ongoing conflicts in Myanmar and the prolonged border tensions between Thailand and Cambodia.

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by Blake Berger

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