China and the Philippines Warn Each Other Not to Push South China Sea Confrontation Too Far… Or Else

A man points a water hose at a photo of Chinese President Xi Jinping as he joins a protest outside the Chinese embassy in Manila on August 11, 2023, to condemn the water canon incident between China and Philippines Coast Guards in the South China/West Philippine Sea. JAM STA ROSA / AFP

Tensions between China and the Philippines steadily worsened over the weekend as both sides attacked the other for instigating the latest confrontation in their disputed waters in the South China Sea.

In Manila, Armed Forces chief General Romeo Brawner said the China Coast Guard’s use of water cannons against an unarmed Philippines Navy vessel on August 5 was tantamount to an “act of war” — which is especially provocative language in the context of the Philippines given the country’s military alliance with the United States.

General Brawner also said that the military plans to deploy another flotilla of supply ships with armed escorts to deliver provisions to the decrepit WWII-era warship Sierra Madre that serves as the Philippines outpost on a shoal that China also claims.

Meantime, in Beijing, Chinese authorities were equally adamant in defending their decision to use the water canon (a move they described as a sign of “exercising great restraint“) and also issued a warning to the Philippines not to push the issue too far.

“Manila should not misjudge China’s strategic patience or try to exploit it,” said an editorial on Sunday in the Communist Party-controlled China Daily newspaper. ” Beijing has both the determination and capacity to protect its territorial waters.”

China’s rhetoric did not seem to cow the Philippines Coast Guard commanders, who on Saturday issued a warning of their own that their Chinese counterparts “should behave.”

Latest Updates on the China-Philippines South China Sea Crisis:

  • SIERRA MADRE REMOVAL:  The Philippines is prepared to use force to defend the BRP Sierra Madre moored at Ayungin Shoal/Ren’ai Reef if the Chinese try to remove the vessel. (GMA NEWS)
  • CHINA BLAMES THE U.S.: China’s top diplomat Wang Yi urged the Philippines to work with Beijing to defuse tensions while suggesting “black hands” in the U.S. were trying to undermine regional stability. (SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST)
  • STREET PROTESTS IN MANILA: Demonstrators converged at the Chinese embassy in Manila on Friday to protest against China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea. (ABS-CBN)
  • BLACKLIST CHINESE COMPANIES: Philippines Senate President Juan Miguel Zubiri proposed banning Chinese companies involved in the South China Sea dispute and awarding construction projects instead to Japanese or Korean firms. (PHILSTAR)
  • INDIA WEIGHS IN: India’s External Affairs Ministry said the dispute should be settled according to “international law and the rules-based order,” a sentiment that will likely be dismissed immediately by Beijing given the implication for China to adhere to a 2016 UN tribunal’s ruling that favored the Philippines. (TIMES OF INDIA)

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? There’s a well-founded concern the brewing confrontation between China and the Philippines could escalate into actual conflict as both sides show no sign of compromise. More disconcerting, though, is the lack of communication between the two countries.

A joint “hotline” that once existed between the two Coast Guards is now reportedly “defunct” so all communications is now going through political channels between the two foreign ministries.

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