Politico has obtained a confidential EU briefing outlining plans to regain influence in four “priority countries” deemed too close to China and Russia.
In order to isolate China and drum up global support for Ukraine and against Russia, the document advised the EU to reenergize its relationships with Nigeria, Kazakhstan, Brazil and Chile.
The document focuses on carrots, not sticks. It outlines tailored offers to these countries on issues like migration, energy, and economic and security cooperation.
EU officials called the document “a huge reorientation … of the way we do foreign policy.” The ultimate aim, according to an unnamed diplomat, “would be to somehow propose an alternative that could be more attractive than what China offers.”
Four Countries Where the EU Hopes to Displace China:
- BRAZIL: The document made clear that the EU sees Latin America as ‘key.’ The EU hopes to sweeten its relationship with Brazil by reviving a long-stalled EU trade deal with the Mercosur bloc of South American countries. It also wants to play into Brazil’s wish “to be treated as a global actor” following the publication of joint Ukraine peace proposals with China.
- CHILE: The EU wants to ‘reduce China’s growing influence in Chile.’ It proposes sweetening the relationship by moving forward with an EU-Chile trade deal that has languished in Brussels, much to Chile’s unhappiness.
- NIGERIA: The document acknowledges that Nigeria is pushing for the liberalization of visa rules and the increase of legal migration. However, the EU is pushing for a focus on “returns and readmission” rather than facilitating actual migration. Instead, it plans “outreach” on humanitarian and energy issues.
- KAZAKHSTAN: Concerned about the transit of sanctioned oil from Russia through Kazakhstan, the EU is considering acceding to Astana’s pressure for visa-free travel and a possible air-service deal.
WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? The document is a highly revealing glimpse into the EU’s anxieties around the rise of China. In the case of Nigeria, it arguably also shows that racially-tinged politics around migration still carries a lot more weight in Europe than China threat narratives.
