The Israeli military claimed to have obtained “aerial superiority” over Tehran on Monday, saying they expected a shorter timeline for the Iran war.
Yet despite this dramatic escalation, a recent analysis by Phoenix Weekly, a Chinese geopolitical outlet, argues that while Israel has momentarily neutralized Iran’s air defenses and achieved temporary superiority, its ability to sustain such high-intensity operations is already reaching its logistical ceiling.
The article suggests that the Israeli Air Force (IAF) fields approximately 325 modern fighter jets—including F-35s, F-15s, and F-16s—but suffers from limited aerial refueling capabilities. Given the straight-line distance of over 1,500 kilometers between Israel and Tehran, all three aircraft types require mid-air refueling for round-trip missions. This extended range places a severe strain on operational tempo: under current conditions, each aircraft may only manage a single sortie per day. Without access to forward bases or direct logistical support from the U.S., Israel is pushing the outer limits of its long-range strike capacity.
Meanwhile, the author points out that Iran’s missile retaliation—over 270 ballistic missiles fired from June 12-15—has had limited impact. Israel’s interception rate remains above 90%, and Iran’s staggered, small-scale launches lack the saturation effect needed to overwhelm Israel’s missile defense.
The article concludes both sides are reaching operational strain. Israel can strike but not decisively without extended logistical support; Iran can retaliate but struggles to inflict meaningful damage. Ultimately, the question is whether Israel’s pressure will force Iran back to the nuclear negotiating table—and under less favorable terms.
