The Guardian this week published a fascinating analysis of how the increasing diplomatic tensions between China and Australia could impact Africa. There are fears that recent Chinese crackdowns on Australian wine, barley, coal, and other commodities could be visited on the country’s exports of iron ore.

Australia provides 60% of China’s iron ore imports. Iron ore is key to China’s massive steel industry, and its plans for achieving full, comprehensive development by the middle of this century. However, there is a major challenge from Africa waiting in the wings. As we’ve also reported over the last few months, Guinea’s Simandou mine is a potential global game-changer. It has the world’s largest deposit of iron ore, and it is of a higher quality than that exported by Australia.

So is Guinea about to displace Australia as the world’s iron giant? Not so fast. Simandou is a troubled project and at least five years from starting production. Among other factors, exports are dependent on a Chinese-dominated joint venture (which, ironically, includes Australia’s Rio Tinto) building a 700-kilometer rail line. So Guinea probably isn’t an immediate competitor to Australia, but it could be one in a few years down the line.