Syrian President Bashar al-Assad will arrive in China on Thursday ahead of a landmark summit with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.
Assad’s visit kicks off a new round of Chinese diplomacy focused on the Mideast in the weeks ahead that will also include visits by Kuwait’s Crown Prince Sheikh Meshal al-Ahmad al-Sabah and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in October.
This will be Assad’s first time back in China in almost twenty years, during which the two countries’ diplomatic ties have grown increasingly close as Beijing became one of Damascus’ most steadfast supporters.
In recent years, China regularly wielded its veto power at the UN Security Council to shield Syria and regards Assad’s defeat of anti-government insurgents in the early 2010s as an important milestone in the battle against the so-called “color revolutions” that swept across the Mideast back then.
In addition to high-level meetings in Beijing, the Syrian President is also expected to travel to the eastern Chinese city of Hangzhou to attend Saturday’s opening ceremony of the Asian Games.
What Will Likely be on Assad’s Agenda in China:
- RECONSTRUCTION: Assad’s top priority is going to be to try and secure Chinese support to rebuild his country, crippled by a massive earthquake earlier this year and a devastating civil war that destroyed most of Syria’s civilian infrastructure. Since 2021, Foreign Minister Wang Yi and other senior Chinese officials have expressed vague support for Syria’s reconstruction but never came through with any specific initiatives. Assad is going to try to get some firm commitments this time.
- TRADE: Chinese trade with Syria is negligible at less than half a billion dollars a year, an area that both countries will want to develop — but it’s not going to happen at the consumer level given that Syrian per capita income is relatively low at just $2-$3 per day. Syrian exports will likely remain flat at around a million dollars a year but Chinese sales of chemicals, infrastructure equipment and industrial machinery could all grow significantly.
- DIPLOMACY: Whatever Assad may lack in economic heft, he more than makes up for in diplomatic weight with the Chinese. Syria is in many ways a linchpin country for China’s burgeoning diplomatic push in the Middle East. China is going to rely heavily on Damascus’ support to ensure that Iran, one of Syria’s closest allies, doesn’t undermine Beijing’s interests in the region by creating new tensions with Tehran’s rivals in Saudi Arabia and Israel.
WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? The Mideast is one of the primary theaters for great power competition between the U.S. and China. With the U.S. trying to re-energize its Mideast diplomacy through ongoing talks to normalize Saudi-Israeli ties and the proposed India-Mideast-Europe Cooridor (IMEC) trade route, Xi is no doubt determined to make sure that he doesn’t cede any of the advances he’s made in the region over the past year.
SUGGESTED READING:
- Al-Monitor: Syria’s Assad to visit China in first trip since 2004 by Adam Lucente
- Global Policy: Exploiting China’s Rise: Syria’s Strategic Narrative and China’s Participation in Middle Eastern Politics by Andrea Ghiselli and Mohammed Alsudairi
