Navigating the Second China Shock

Workers are producing winter school uniforms in a clothing company's production workshop in Jinping County, Qiandongnan Prefecture, Guizhou Province, China on November 1, 2025. (Photo by Li Bin / CFoto / CFOTO via AFP)

Like climate change or runaway AI risks, China’s swelling manufacturing capacity is a global challenge faced by middle and high-income economies alike.

Trade tensions already dominate EU-China relations, and concerns over China’s manufacturing capacity are rising across the Global South. In the coming years, navigating overcapacity will become the defining issue in China policy.

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by Jacob Mardell

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