In a territorial dispute, overestimation by one side of its strength relative to the opposing side is the crux of continuing conflict. At the end of September, Indian billionaire Gautam Adani gave a speech in Singapore celebrating an extremely optimistic message centered on the Indian economy reaching $30 trillion in 2047. Through October and November runs the 60th anniversary of the Sino-Indian War (October 20-November 31) and, if sincerely believed, Adani’s forecast will keep China-India tensions high well beyond.
The speech given at the Forbes Global CEO Conference on September 27 wasn’t about geopolitics. However, a sky-high GDP forecast by India’s richest man rejuvenates Indian economic exuberance. In turn, New Delhi strategists input the exuberant forecast to formulate superpower plans for India in a parallel ascent to the economy. Strategic plans follow long-term economic trajectories, the most important variable of national power. Both the risk of underestimating and overestimating can ruin effective planning.
