HOT TAKES: Early Predictions of How Trump’s Win Could Affect Key China-Global South Issues

Newspapers in Manila on the morning of 7 November 2024. Image: Jam Sta Rosa / AFP
  • AFRICA: The outcome of the U.S. election for Africa will likely be mixed. South Africa will likely face increased pressure from U.S. policymakers around its opposition to Israeli actions in Gaza, and perceptions of its closeness to Russia and China. Such pressure will likely push it more conclusively in that direction.

    The attention to other African issues is likely to wane, except for constituencies with a strong lobbying presence in Washington. Somaliland could be one example, raising the danger of it following South Sudan’s trajectory from secession to conflict.
    More broadly, African efforts to renew the African Growth and Opportunity Act could face an uphill battle, which would further position China as its most important partner. An expected reevaluation of Biden-era infrastructure initiatives like the Lobito Corridor (both due to cost concerns and a less cohesive G7) will likely further advance this trend.

  • CLIMATE AND ENERGY: Trump has vowed to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Accord, which would weaken U.S. climate leadership. This, and even more official support for the fossil fuel industry, will certainly set back the world’s already overdue climate goals. However, China’s coupling of climate issues and energy provision under the “small is beautiful” BRI and broader messaging of South-South modernization are likely to keep Global South countries importing Chinese-made renewables.

    The already highly geopolitics-inflected race for critical minerals will likely be one area of continuity between the Biden and second Trump administrations. However, Republican opposition to ESG standards will likely make those projects more complicated on the ground.

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