The following is an excerpt from an article written by Ray Powell, director of the Project Myoushu at Stanford University’s Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation, that tracks Chinese maritime activity in the South China Sea.
Powell spent more than 30 years in the U.S. Air Force in Asia and the Middle East and is a leading expert on the South China Sea conflict.
The China Coast Guard’s 5 August water-cannon assault on the Philippines’ resupply mission didn’t just happen. Things didn’t just get out of hand.
No, China has clearly been planning for this calculated aggression.
Three months prior to [Saturday’s] resupply, China’s force in the area around Second Thomas (Ayungin) Shoal consisted of a single coast guard vessel and three maritime militia ships. A month ago it had expanded its militia force to 17 ships. By yesterday’s mission China had 4 coast guard and 32 militia ships ready to interdict the resupply.
While most of the militia ships remained in the rear area near Mischief Reef, most weighed anchor and deployed from the port in the hours leading up to the resupply.
The signal was clear–China was ready and willing to escalate even further if need be.
Beijing has obviously made the calculation that the Philippines’ new assertiveness in defending its exclusive economic zone, strengthening its U.S. alliance and other security partnerships, and publicizing China’s gray-zone aggression in the West Philippine Sea represents an affront that must not be tolerated. An example must be made.
