So far, Guinean bauxite exports to China appear unaffected by last Sunday’s coup and policymakers in Beijing are no doubt hoping it stays that way. They would like to avoid having to turn to Australia for further supplies of the critical metal used to manufacture aluminum.

Relations between China and Australia have steadily deteriorated over the past 18 months, with China openly admitting that it would like to eventually phase out its dependence on Aussie iron ore, bauxite, and other commodities. In fact, in just the past few days, officials from both sides accused the other of practicing”economic coercion” and Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg described China as a “strategic threat.”