The Complexity of China’s Iran Math

A person points at a page on the Marinetraffic website that shows commercial boats traffic on the edge of the Strait of Hormuz near the Iranian coast, in Paris on March 4, 2026. (Photo by JULIEN DE ROSA / AFP)

The news that Qatar has temporarily halted its output of liquid natural gas has sharpened the focus on how the Iran war will affect Chinese energy security. What has received less attention is how the war will affect Chinese companies’ commercial entanglements in Iran.

Despite the framing in Western discourse of China as a key partner to Iran, the relationship isn’t necessarily water-tight. For example, a few of the projects included in the $400 billion 25-year cooperation deal signed in 2021 have been completed.

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by Cobus van Staden

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