In this issue of the ChinaMed Observer, we cannot but pay great attention to how the discussion on the yet-to-be-finalized agreement between China and Iran has evolved in the Iranian media. Other important issues that we found in the media published in the wider Mediterranean region include the discussion on how to balance the relations between the West and China in Lebanon, Sino-French competition in North Africa, and discording views on China in Italy.
On June 23, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif posted a message in Chinese on Twitter stating that “we reached an agreement on deepening of comprehensive strategic cooperation between the two countries, promoting of bilateral 25-year cooperation plan and supporting each other in international issues.”
Unsurprisingly, this news sparked a heated debate around the world, including Iran, where concerns of intimate relations with China are frequently voiced in the media. While the reform-minded part of the elite remains suspicious of China and Russia, Mohsen Shariatinja and Hamidreza Azizi argue that the conservatives—with a deep anti-Western intellectual background—see potential allies in China and Russia.
The currently negotiated agreement, thus, might be interpreted as an attempt by the conservatives to capitalize on the failure of the reformist-promoted Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and try to “seal the deal” with China. However, it is interesting to see that one of the first and most high-profile critics of the agreement is Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who played a key role in strengthening the relations with China when he was President between 2005 and 2013. During a recent visit to the Gilan Province, he criticized the Rouhani government for “secretly signing a deal” with a foreign state. “Any such accord that counters the people’s will and national interests lacks validity and will not be recognized by the Iranian nation,” he warned, suggesting that it also violated the fundamental principles of the Islamic Revolution that were meant to “withhold nothing from the nation.”
“Relentless American Pressure” Pushed Iran to Turn to China
It is against this background that we read two articles published by the pro-reform Etemad and the Revolutionary Guard-connected Tasnim News Agency. A reporter of Tasnim News Agency interviewed Majid Reza Hariri, Chairman of the Iran-China Joint Chamber of Commerce and Industry. Hariri made a number of interesting comments. To begin with, the agreement was first discussed in 2016, when Xi Jinping visited Tehran, but negotiations only made headway last year. According to Hariri, the Iranian government was focused on the JCPOA in 2016 and the discussion with China was not taken very seriously. It was the relentless American pressure that pushed Tehran to go back to the idea of a long-term cooperation agreement with China. That said, he argued that during the ongoing negotiations “special attention [had] been paid to electric trains, road construction, underground mines and extraction from joint oil reservoirs with a neighboring country.” However, the specific projects have yet to be defined and, ultimately, reports by foreign media about the total contract value—allegedly USD 400 billion—are fake. As to Ahmadinejad’s comments, Hariri rhetorically asks: “How is it that back then the joint cooperation with China wasn’t a cession of the country to the Chinese but the conclusion of a bilateral cooperation agreement today means giving up our sovereignty?”
The article in Etemad is more straightforward in calling out Ahmadinejad’s opportunism and link his words with his decision to run during the presidential elections of 2021. Mohammad Hassan Qadiri Abyaneh, former ambassador and member of the conservatives, stated that “Ahmadinejad is protesting. He protests against everything. One day he makes his birthday wishes to the American singer Michael Jackson, another day he is writing a congratulatory message to the U.S. baseball team that won the national championships. Ahmadinejad wants to show that he exists.” Ali Tajernia, a member of the sixth Majlis’ National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, described Ahmadinejad’s comments as an attempt to “swim against the current.” According to Tajernia, Ahmadinejad does not have any “cultural, political, economic and foreign policy strategy” and that “his political life depends on swimming against the current.”
Lebanon’s Courts Chinese Infrastructure Investment
Meanwhile, cooperation with China is also becoming a contested issue in Lebanon. Last month, we reported that the Lebanese government has been in touch with China National Machinery Import and Export Corporation for the construction of power plants. Sources reported to Lebanon Economy that the government is aware of Chinese ambitions in the region but the offer is too good and the Lebanese situation too desperate. Yet, it seems that some have started to voice concerns about closer relations with China. According to Al-Liwa, however, there is no need to worry. The journalist argues that many countries in the region have deep economic relations with China, including Israel, and their relations with the United States have not suffered from this. Clearly, he has not been following Israeli media, which continues to report on how the Israeli government is in an increasingly difficult position between American pressure and economic opportunities in China. In any case, the Minister of Industry, Dr. Imad Hoballah, too, has intervened in the debate reaffirming that the government sees China as an important partner for economic development and that the partnership with Beijing should not be misunderstood as a target against other countries.
Sino-French Competition in the Maghreb
Shifting our focus to North Africa, we found a very interesting article published in Libya Akhbar, a Benghazi-based newspaper. The article reports that Chinese media have accused Turkey of destabilizing the Mediterranean region, especially Libya. While, as we mentioned before, it is true that Chinese commentators are rather critical of Turkish foreign policy, it is interesting to see a newspaper based in the stronghold of the Libyan National Army using Chinese media to criticize the main ally of the rival Government of National Accord. Besides Libya, we also found new evidence of the Sino-French competition in the Maghreb. On June 22, Tunisian President Kais Saied met with his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, in Paris. During the meeting, Macron expressed his willingness to construct the TGV railway between Bizerte and the southernmost part of Tunisia—an idea that was welcomed by Saied. According to the economist Mohammed Al-Sadiq Jebnoun, this might indicate that the Tunisian government is choosing to turn down the offer made by China, which included a train from Gabes to Tataouine and a “technological area” in Bin Qirdan. In May, we found similar reports about European, especially French, proposals aimed at diminishing a growing Chinese economic presence in the Maghreb.
French & Italian Media Remain Dubious of Chinese Influence in North Africa
In any case, the news from Paris might be a welcome one for some in France as the French media spares no effort in documenting China’s “massive” military presence in Africa, and the calls to reduce the European and French dependence on China as a market and supplier find space in mainstream newspapers. Similarly, critical voices against China are present in Italy. The leader of the Northern League, Matteo Salvini, was interviewed by Formiche on a number of China-related issues. Salvini harshly criticized the government for being too cautious on Hong Kong and Huawei’s potential role in the Italian 5G network. This interview is a part of the continuous efforts made by Italian right-wing parties to position themselves as the protectors of Italian national security and relations with the United States, even though the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Beijing for the cooperation on the Belt and Road Initiative was promoted by a government led by the League with the Five Star Movement, and spearheaded by Michele Geraci, a member of the League. Luca Ferrari, Italy’s ambassador to Beijing, also intervened in the debate through an interview with Affari Italiani. Ferrari’s message was very different from Salvini’s as he emphasized the importance of the Chinese market and urged to avoid the politicization of Chinese aid to Italy against the Covid-19 pandemic.
Chinese Perspectives on the Proposed Deal with Iran
The Middle East is the focal point of this month’s ChinaMed Observer. In light of the discussion at the United Nations regarding the extension of the arms embargo against Iran and the announcement of a 25-year agreement between Tehran and Beijing, we start our review of Chinese media in Iran. Nonetheless, other interesting commentaries on Syria, Libya, and Palestine were also published in Chinese media.
On June 22, the Iranian government spokesman Ali Rabiei declared that Iran and China have drafted a 25-year plan for economic cooperation. “This plan proves the failure of the United States’ policies to isolate Iran, sever Iran’s relations with the international community and also to harm Iran’s will to expand relations with other countries,” Rabiei said during a press conference. Although some trace its origin back to the upgrade of the Sino-Iranian relations into a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership made in September 2016, the details of the plan are unknown, and this lack of information has sparked an intense debate in Iran. On the contrary, Chinese authorities have been silent. So far, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has not released any statement regarding Iran beyond the ongoing discussion at the United Nations regarding sanctions against Iran.
Against this background, we found an unofficial commentary written by Fan Hongda, a professor at Shanghai International Studies University (SISU). Fan alludes to two factors that can explain the decision to agree on a long-term cooperation plan. The first is that “Iran has stood close to China on issues of sovereignty related to Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Tibet.” The second element is that, according to him, the influence of the “American constraining factor” is increasingly less important to China. For that reason, he writes, “there is much space for the Sino-Iranian relations to develop.” Nonetheless, Fan also mentions a key issue: planning and implementing are two different things. It is the responsibility of the two countries to follow-up on their commitment.
It is difficult to interpret Fan’s comment regarding the decreasing influence of the United States on China’s relations with Iran. It might be true, at least to some extent, if we read it in terms of the value of cooperating over the Iranian nuclear issue. As Sino-American relations continue to worsen, Chinese policymakers are likely to favor leveraging Iran to frustrate the policies of the Trump administration, which have been largely unsuccessful in any case. However, we have to wait until the Chinese side will make its position known.
In any case, Chinese commentators seem resigned to the fact that hardliners have taken control in Tehran. For example, Wang Jin, associate professor at Northwestest University’s Institute of Middle Eastern Studies, argues that Iran’s issuing of arrest warrants for Donald Trump and other members of his administration is more than a symbolic move. It reflects the dominant view that the previous moderate approach has failed and that there cannot be a dialogue with the United States.
In another article, Wang Jin also commented on the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act, the most wide-ranging U.S. sanctions ever applied against Syria, that was signed into law on June 17. Unlike previous sanctions, the Caesar Act brings under its jurisdiction third-country actors who engage in such activities, including the cross-border business networks that are crucial to the regime’s survival. Indeed, as Wang points out, Iran and Russia are explicitly mentioned in the document. Nevertheless, he believes that the effect of the sanctions will be the prolongation of the conflict and more difficulties to bring it to an end.
Chinese Skepticism About Turkey’s Intentions in Libya
As to the conflict in Libya, it provides, once again, the opportunity for Chinese commentators to express their skepticism regarding Turkish foreign policy. This is evident in comments made by Wang Jingyan, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. While admitting that Turkish intervention in support of the Government of National Accord has decisively contributed to changing the course of the conflict, Wang emphasizes how this proactive foreign policy originates from the domestic difficulties of Erdogan and will lead Turkey to be further isolated in the region. This is the latest of a long series of articles where Chinese analysts describe Turkey’s foreign policy as overly ambitious and, sometimes, not beneficial to regional stability.
In any case, Turkey is not the only actor that is described as struggling to pursue its own regional interest through the involvement in Libya. Zhao Jun, a scholar at SISU, wrote an analysis of Egypt’s “Peace Initiative” describing a country that is trying to regain its position in the region, especially as Turkey is expanding its influence in the Red Sea region and Ethiopia announced its plan to fill the Grand Renaissance Dam. Other Chinese commentators made a similar argument before about post-Arab Spring Egypt. Against this background, the Egyptian initiative—put forward as troops also gather near the Libyan border—is framed as an attempt to show strength. Meanwhile, Egypt’s adversaries advance and its allies, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates doubt its capabilities and have to scale back their support due to the Covid-19. Hence, Zhao concludes, the “Peace Initiative” will not bring any peace. At most, it will be used as an excuse to try to bargain with the other actors active in Libya.
Israel “Kidnapped by Right-Wing Populism”
Meanwhile, Xinhua’s Globe magazine published an article written by Niu Song, a Middle Eastern studies expert at SISU, about Israel’s plan to annex the Jordan Valley. Unsurprisingly, Niu is critical of the plan which he ascribes to the increasingly evident turn to right-wing Israeli politics and the active support of the United States—otherwise described as being “kidnapped by right-wing populism.” In general, Niu’s analysis echoes those of others as he highlights how the Palestinian issue has been marginalized and how the Arab world has proven incapable of resisting Israel’s plan. Saudi Arabia’s “ambiguous and cold-blooded attitude” is particularly evident.
Mideast Oil Producers Need to Re-Think Their Investment Strategies
Saudi Arabia and other oil-producing countries in the Gulf are the center of focus in an article published by the Global Times on the economic trends in the Middle East. The author, Ding Long from the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing, argues that those countries face significant challenges as they try to diversify their economy in a moment of low oil prices. One important reason, he writes, is that they have pursued an ineffective strategy of investment abroad in recent years. First, they invested abroad through intermediaries that were not capable of making much profit. They also made investments, like the acquisition of football clubs, that do not make sense in economic terms. Second, the investments that they carried out did not bring technological advancements home and, thus, did not help the local economy to diversify and develop. In turn, they simply changed what they are dependent on—from oil to other countries’ economies. Third, many investments in the United States were made for political reasons and, consistently, did not target the most profitable enterprises.
Hence, he argues, we should expect a number of different developments. First, the entire region will suffer because the oil-producing countries used to help other countries in economic trouble but are now no longer in a position to offer aid. Lebanon, for example, will not be rescued by the monarchies in the Gulf. Egypt also relies on the remittance of workers in other countries and will have serious problems as those economies slow down. Second, the social contract in oil-producing countries will change. Ruling monarchies will not be able to ignore what the people want and social actors will become more influential. Third, the region will become less important in world politics and the oil-producing countries will enter in competition with Russia and the United States in the international energy market, thereby facing significant challenges.
For more information about the ChinaMed Project and to view the original editions of the ChinaMed Observer please click here.
