Life is not getting any easier for the U.S. diplomats posted in Africa. Today’s clown show, excuse me, “presidential debate,” is certainly not going to make what seems like increasingly awkward and uncomfortable discussions with local stakeholders any easier.
Fairly or not, U.S. policy in Africa is measured against China’s engagement on the continent, and events over the past week reveal just how difficult it’s becoming for U.S. diplomats to have those conversations.
The promotion of democracy and good governance have been longstanding pillars of U.S. foreign policy in Africa. During the Cold War, the U.S. proudly showcased the dynamism of its pluralistic political system against the Russians’ sclerotic totalitarian model. Now, some of that same language is being resuscitated by the State Department in the current struggle with China.
The problem is that the United States in 2020 is not the U.S. of 1975 and China is not the Soviet Union.
Today, the U.S. seems both unwilling and incapable of effectively competing with the Chinese in Africa:
- GOVERNANCE: The once-formidable advantage that the U.S. had in promoting democracy as an alternative to China’s totalitarian model no longer seems as appealing to African stakeholders. A country where presidents are repeatedly elected after losing the popular vote, whose leaders openly lie to their people without consequence, actively suppress voting rights for minority populations, and vilify an independent press “as the enemy of the people” is going to find it increasingly difficult to persuade other countries of its moral legitimacy on this issue.
- TRADE AND INVESTMENT: Although the U.S. remains the top source of FDI in Africa, it’s disproportionately in the hydrocarbon sector, as exemplified by the recent US Eximbank’s $4.7 billion loan for a Mozambican natural gas project. The U.S. no longer needs to import as much energy as it used to, and trade volumes with Africa have fallen steadily since 2015. There’s no indication that it’ll ever rebound. Although Chinese trade with Africa is also largely made up of oil, minerals, and timber, it’s nonetheless much more diverse with technology, infrastructure, and agriculture playing an increasingly important role.
- PEOPLE TO PEOPLE: Entertainers, athletes, and the vibrant African/African-American diaspora are all powerful symbols of American culture in Africa and an important reason why, despite growing political alienation with the Trump administration, perceptions of the U.S. on the continent remain impressively high. But that soft power is weakened considerably when those same cultural ambassadors are forced to defend black life and identity against the current administration. China has also struggled with this issue this year. But China has never presented multiculturalism as a core societal strength the way the U.S. has — so the expectations are radically different. The fact that the U.S. Department of Homeland Security is proposing restrictions on student visas that will disproportionately impact Africans in the same year that China became the most popular destination for African students further compounds this growing divergence.
African leaders have been very clear about what they need from their international partners: We have big problems that we need to address NOW. They don’t want to hear about long term civil society reform when their unemployment rates are skyrocketing and their economies are tanking due to a pandemic.
This is a clear opportunity for the kind of international leadership a superpower can provide. While the Chinese response has been characteristically opaque, the case of Angola shows that they at least seem to be showing up for these conversations.
The U.S., well, not so much. Again, pity the poor American diplomat who no doubt has an increasingly arduous task of representing a government who’s just not as relevant in Africa as it used to be.
