The political calculations that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made in agreeing to accept President Xi Jinping’s invitation to visit may be far more nuanced than the prevailing narratives in the Israeli and U.S. media, which largely frame it around annoying Joe Biden.
Given the Prime Minister’s abysmal public approval ratings, a visit to China and all the pomp that entails could be a useful way to shift attention from his domestic political problems.
For more on the political calculations behind the Israeli PM’s visit, CGSP Editor-in-Chief Eric Olander spoke with Gedalia Afterman, one of Israel’s foremost scholars on China and head of the Asia Policy Program at the Abba Eban Institute for Diplomacy and Foreign Relations at Reichman University.
The following is an unedited transcript of their discussion:
ERIC OLANDER: When Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas went to China, Prime Minister Netanyahu dismissed China as a potential mediator. Now, he’s going to China. Do you think he’s changed his mind?
GEDALIA AFTERMAN: For Prime Minister Netanyahu a visit to Beijing is not about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict at all. Netanyahu was in his previous terms the architect of Israel’s “look east” policy, particularly the development of its relationship with China.
Netanyahu sees the Israel-China relationship as important, especially given the changing landscape in the Middle East and China’s evolving role in the region.
On the regional front, a key focus for Netanyahu will likely be advancing the prospects of Saudi Arabia and Israel establishing official diplomatic relations. Another issue would likely be the Iran nuclear issue and the possibility of a new nuclear agreement.
The Chinese side is likely to raise its latest initiative to mediate between Israeli and Palestinians. But the best way for China to catch the attention of Israel, the region and Washington would be through advancing normalization between Israel and players in the Arab and Muslim world – including Saudi Arabia.
ERIC: The Israeli media suggested the planned visit is really aimed at annoying the Biden administration and effort to pique the U.S. Are ties between Israel and the U.S. really that strained that Bibi feels he needs to step into the middle of the U.S.-China rivalry?
GEDALIA: Netanyahu is of course very much aware of the current geopolitical climate and the intensifying rivalry between the US and China including in the Middle East. This has led him to be more cautious than in the past on the China front.
Nevertheless, together with China’s moves to play a more active role in the region or at least to be perceived as such, demonstrated by its facilitation of the Saudi-Iran rapprochement, sending a message to the Biden administration that Israel too has options plays a part in Netanyahu’s calculation. He understands, of course, that this could prove to be a double-edged sword that might cause real damage to Israel’s strategic partnership with the United States, so he will make sure to coordinate with Washington.
Today, for example, he announced that the Biden administration was informed about the invitation to visit Beijing already a month ago and that nothing can substitute the Israel-U.S. alliance. Despite such efforts, the message will be clearly heard in Washington.
ERIC: The PM is extremely controversial at home, facing an uproar over a proposed judicial overhaul, persistent corruption investigations and lots of fractures within his coalition. Does internal fighting or domestic political considerations play any role in the decision to go to China or the timing of the visit?
GEDALIA: The current Netanyahu government has been very controversial at home and quite isolated internationally. PM Netanyahu has yet to be invited to the White House and a key visit to the UAE has been put on hold indefinitely (or until the COP28 climate meeting.) This government’s international isolation and that of Netanyahu personally have become an issue – especially as Netanyahu has always prized his international standing.
A full honors reception like the Chinese are very good at putting on will position Netanyahu as a first-tier global leader (like Scholz or Macron) he had been used to being compared to in the past. And will give him some respite from the troubles at home.
In addition, a key strategic goal for the government and for Netanyahu personally is the expansion of the Abraham Accords and particularly the establishment of diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia. If, by visiting Beijing, he can gain legitimacy at home, get the U.S. to invite him to Washington and make some progress with the Saudis his trip would be a great success.
Gedalia Afterman is the Head of the Asia Policy Program at The Abba Eban Institute for Diplomacy and Foreign Relations at Reichman University
