Indonesian President-elect Prabowo Subianto arrived in Beijing on Sunday for what many observers describe as a highly unusual visit that will include a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
It is extremely rare for a foreign leader who has not even been sworn into office yet to be invited to Beijing to meet with Xi.
On Friday, the Foreign Ministry in Beijing even noted that China “will be [Prabowo’s] first overseas visit as President-elect, which fully demonstrates the robustness of China-Indonesia ties.”
China’s eagerness to foster close ties with the newly elected president was evident back in February, just a few days after the election, when Chinese Ambassador Lu Kang visited the president-elect’s private residence and posted videos of the two playing with Prabowo’s cat.
Since then, Ambassador Kang has had several engagements with Prabowo, clearly demonstrating the importance that Beijing attaches to the new government that will take power in Jakarta.
Why China is Moving Quickly to Solidify Ties With Indonesia:
- GREAT POWER COMPETITION: Indonesia is the birthplace of the non-aligned movement, and China wants to ensure that Prabowo remains dedicated to the Bandung values. The Chinese are not necessarily looking to pull Prabowo to their side, they just want to make sure he remains non-partisan and avoid what happened in the Philippines when Beijing was caught off guard after a new president assumed office who quickly became hostile.
- STRATEGIC RESOURCES: Indonesia is home to the world’s largest nickel reserves, a key metal used to manufacture EV batteries and steel, among other things. China is deeply invested in Indonesia’s nickel mining, smelting, and processing sectors and regards the Southeast Asian country as a vital node in the competition for critical resource dominance.
- HUGE DOMESTIC MARKET: Indonesia’s enormous consumer market provides a critical alternative for Chinese auto and technology brands that face mounting challenges in G7 countries. It’s unlikely Chinese EVs will ever be allowed into the U.S. market and they face expulsion from the EU, so a country like Indonesia, which has a middle class of 200 million people, is very enticing.
There’s widespread consensus among Indonesian policy experts that Prabowo will continue the China-friendly approach set by his predecessor, incumbent president Joko Widodo. But it’s not going to be easy.
Tensions are brewing between the two countries over several issues, including territorial disputes in the South China Sea and persistent accusations of labor abuses by Chinese mining companies, among others.
WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT? The Chinese are moving uncharacteristically fast to build a close relationship with Prabowo, which will put pressure on the U.S. to match China’s outreach. While Biden spoke by phone with the president-elect last week, he will have to ensure that Washington maintains a consistently high level of engagement in Indonesia if they want to keep pace with the Chinese — something that hasn’t been easy for the U.S. in recent years.
SUGGESTED READING:
- The Interpreter: How “like-minded” are Indonesia and Japan about China? by Mahbi Maulaya
- The Diplomat: How Will Chinese Investors Navigate Indonesia’s Post-election Risks? by Ahmad Syarif
