More than a year of progress in repairing frayed diplomatic ties between India and China appears to be in jeopardy following the brief conflict that erupted in recent weeks between India and Pakistan.
The fighting between the two South Asian rivals flared in response to a brutal terrorist attack in Indian-controlled Kashmir that New Delhi accused Islamabad of orchestrating. The dispute then led to a short military conflict that didn’t do much to resolve the bitter divide over Kashmir, but caused considerable damage to India’s rapprochement with China.
Relations between the two Asian giants went into a four-year deep freeze following a 2020 military skirmish along their disputed border in the Himalayas when 20 Indian soldiers were killed in a battle known as “Galwan Valley incident.”
For much of that time, bilateral exchanges—including ambassadorial appointments, student programs, and journalist visas—were severely curtailed. It was so bad that President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi could barely even look at each other when they were in the same room together.
That all changed last year as the two sides vowed to mend ties, including a major pullback of military forces along their shared border. Now, though, there’s a sense some of that progress has become collateral damage from the fighting in Kashmir as China firmly backs its partners in Pakistan, and many in India increasingly believe it’s now facing a two-front struggle.
In just the past week, both India and China have taken actions against one another that undermine the détente started in 2024:
- CHINA RENAMING DISPUTED TERRITORIES: China reasserted its territorial claims along the disputed border with India by publishing a new list of “standardized” names for dozens of locations—most of which lie within areas administered by India. New Delhi called the move “preposterous.“
- INDIA BLOCKS CHINESE NEWS OUTLETS ON X: India has blocked access to several X accounts belonging to Chinese state media, accusing them of disseminating Pakistani propaganda and false information related to the ongoing Kashmir crisis.
The ongoing uncertainty brought about by the U.S.-initiated trade war is exacerbating the problems between India and China, as more manufacturers consider relocating their production to South Asia to avoid potentially crippling tariffs on Chinese-made products.
China is taking steps that appear intended to hobble India’s manufacturing capabilities by restricting the sale of certain critical resources to Indian companies and the movement of some skilled Chinese factory personnel from traveling to India.
The question now is whether Xi and Modi will personally intervene to alter the current trajectory and salvage the progress they made last year — a prospect that seems increasingly unlikely as both sides retreat back to their position of mutual suspicion.
