As leaders from across Africa prepare to gather with their Chinese counterparts for the upcoming Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), all eyes will be on the evolving dynamics of this crucial relationship. The summit, a cornerstone of Sino-African diplomacy for the past two decades, offers key insights into the trajectory of China’s engagement with the continent.
Here are three key areas that merit close attention in FOCAC 2024:
- First, the summit’s thematic focus will likely signal China’s priorities for the region. Previous gatherings have emphasized industrialization, infrastructure development, and, most recently, health cooperation in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Given China’s growing emphasis on climate and environmental issues globally, all under the umbrella of China’s evolving “Green Belt and Road Initiative”, we may see a pivot towards “green” initiatives. Expect announcements on renewable energy projects, sustainable transportation, and cooperation on climate finance.
- Second, concrete financial pledges will be closely scrutinized. Past summits have featured headline-grabbing commitments, such as the $60 billion financing package announced in 2015 and again in 2018. We likely won’t see the same scale, but this time, the details may prove more revealing than the headline figures. Look for increased collaboration with African financial institutions, particularly regional development banks. This kind of move could signal a shift in China’s approach, potentially seeking to spread risk and increase coordination with established African partners.
- Finally, the summit provides an unparalleled opportunity for face-to-face diplomacy. African leaders will vie for valuable one-on-one time with Chinese President Xi Jinping, potentially using these meetings to negotiate on pressing issues like debt restructuring. With several African nations facing significant debt challenges, the summit could become a stage for China to showcase its commitment to debt relief, particularly for countries participating in the G20 Common Framework.
As the world’s attention turns to this high-stakes diplomatic dance, the outcomes of the FOCAC summit will offer crucial insights into the future of China-Africa relations and China’s evolving role on the global stage.
Yunnan Chen is a Research Fellow in ODI’s Development and Public Finance program.
