The United States followed through with its pledge to strip Ethiopia of its trade privileges under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) in response to “gross violations of internationally recognized human rights.” The U.S. Trade Representative announced on Saturday that Ethiopia, together with Mali and Guinea, would no longer enjoy duty-free access to the U.S. market as part of AGOA.
The move, first announced back in November, was widely expected. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his allies had been pushing for the United States to reconsider, warning that the livelihoods of an estimated 200,000 people, mostly younger women, will be at stake. But that argument did not win out in Washington where lobbyists like Von Batten-Montague-York, L.C. celebrated the Biden administration’s punitive measures:
Ethiopia now joins 12 other African countries that are currently ineligible to participate in AGOA.
While the economic impact will no doubt be significant, particularly in Ethiopia’s all-important leather and apparel sectors that exported $150 million worth of goods annually under AGOA, the long-term geopolitical ramifications of the AGOA removal could be far more consequential. What special interests like Von Batten-Montague-York, L.C. don’t seem to consider is that a strategically vital country like Ethiopia is also a key to the contest for influence between the U.S. and China.
With the perception that the U.S. is siding with the Tigrayan opposition now firmly embedded in the minds of most Ethiopian government supporters and China’s enthusiastic, unconditional embrace of the Ethiopian government highlighted by Beijing’s outspoken defense of Addis Ababa in international fora like the United Nations, China stands to gain significantly should the government emerge victorious from the current conflict — which, as of now, looks increasingly likely.
It will take years, even decades, for the U.S. to rebuild trust with the Ethiopian government and its supporters – if that’s even possible in the current environment. In meantime, watch for China to double down on its engagement in Addis Ababa. We’re likely to see announcements of new trade agreements to partly make up for what was lost by the AGOA ruling, new debt relief measures, and heightened international diplomatic support.
Should PM Abiy and the Ethiopian government successfully quell the conflict with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, China too will emerge among the winners.
