By Peter Catterall
China’s exports surged to a record high in 2024, providing a much-needed boost for the economy as the prospect of biting tariffs imposed by US president-elect Donald Trump looms.
Overseas shipments represented a rare bright spot for Beijing last year as sluggish domestic consumption and a prolonged crisis in the property sector dragged on growth.
But Trump, who imposed sweeping tariffs on China during his first term in office, has threatened even heftier levies when he returns to the White House next week.
Exports have historically represented a key driver of activity for the world’s number two economy, which officials say is likely to have grown five percent last year.
Total exports in 2024 “exceeded 25 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching $3.47 trillion… a year-on-year increase of 7.1%”, state broadcaster CCTV said.
Imports rose 2.3 percent to $2.5 trillion, CCTV said, adding that combined trade swelled five percent to reach a record $5.98 trillion.
Official customs data showed Monday that exports in December jumped 10.7% year-on-year, comfortably outperforming a forecast of 7.5% in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
Imports last month grew one percent year-on-year, compared with a Bloomberg forecast of a one percent decline.
Observers have pointed out that exports were likely boosted by companies ramping up stockpiles ahead of Trump’s second term amid fears of a painful trade war.
Beijing has since September announced some of its most aggressive policy measures in years as officials try to kickstart the economy, which has so far failed to achieve a full post-pandemic recovery.
The steps have included the cancellation of certain restrictions on homebuying, subsidies for the purchasing of household items and key interest rate cuts.
The government is due to release China’s 2024 economic growth data later this week. President Xi Jinping has recently expressed confidence that the country achieved an official target of around five percent.
Many economists say that more policy support targeted at incentivizing domestic consumption is needed to restore China’s economic health.
