How one perceives the proposed China-Iran partnership agreement, which is reportedly close to completion, likely depends on where you’re from and how you regard both these regional powers.
In exchange for greater access to Iran’s financial services, telecommunications, and infrastructure market, China would reportedly receive access to a steady supply of heavily discounted Iranian oil over the next 25 years. There’s widespread speculation that an agreement like this is valued at around $400 billion, according to a report in the New York Times.
Commentators and analysts in the United States are framing the proposed agreement as evidence of Iran’s weakness and China’s drive to expand its geopolitical influence in a strategically vital part of the world.
India, too, sees the expansion of Chinese influence in the Gulf as a potential threat.
In Africa, generally, there hasn’t been much coverage of the story, likely because more pressing issues like the worsening COVID-19 outbreak and the burgeoning debt crisis are dominating the headlines. Nonetheless, a deal like this between Iran and China could have significant implications for the continent, particularly for countries like Angola and the Republic of Congo who have long depended on Chinese oil buying.
But a growing number of analysts in the Gulf who closely follow China’s presence in the region are trying to push back against the concern. The Chinese, they contend, have partnerships with every other country in the Gulf and this one is really no different so, in their view, it shouldn’t be seen as that big of a deal.
But at some level, a deal like this is different… if for no other reason than it involves China and Iran at a time when both countries are engaged in a duel with the United States and increasingly Europe.
Even if the proposed agreement is not as broad in scope as it’s been portrayed in the media, it nonetheless points to Beijing’s heightened presence in the Persian Gulf and Middle East where China has displaced the United States as the region’s largest trading partner.
The ChinaMed Project Evaluates Iranian and Chinese Media Coverage of the Proposed Deal
- A PARTISAN DIVIDE IN IRAN: “While the reform-minded part of the elite remains suspicious of China and Russia, Mohsen Shariatinja and Hamidreza Azizi argue that the conservatives—with a deep anti-Western intellectual background—see potential allies in China and Russia.” (CHINAMED PROJECT)
- CHINESE PERCEIVE A WEAKENED U.S.: “We found an unofficial commentary written by Fan Hongda, a professor at Shanghai International Studies University (SISU). Fan alludes to two factors that can explain the decision to agree on a long-term cooperation plan. The first is that “Iran has stood close to China on issues of sovereignty related to Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Tibet.” The second element is that, according to him, the influence of the “American constraining factor” is increasingly less important to China. For that reason, he writes, “there is much space for the Sino-Iranian relations to develop.” (CHINAMED PROJECT)
The ChinaMed Project is a joint research initiative by the Center for Mediterranean Area Studies of Peking University and Italy’s Torino World Affairs Institute. Among other things, the ChinaMed Project publishes the ChinaMed Observer, a monthly summary of news summary of key issues related to China’s engagement in North Africa, southern Europe, the Middle East, and the Persian Gulf.
The latest edition of the ChinaMed Observer is now available.
