Jonathan Fulton is an assistant professor at Zayed University in Abu Dhabi, and a non-resident Senior Fellow at The Atlantic Council in Washington, D.C., is one of the world’s leading experts on the Chinese in the Persian Gulf/Middle East regions.
Fulton has commented extensively in recent weeks on the proposed China-Iran deal, most notably on Twitter where he’s had a number of lively and informative exchanges with his followers.
Contrary to the prevailing narrative, he argues that concern about the deal is vastly “overblown” and that he doesn’t see this kind of agreement as a Chinese challenge to U.S. hegemony in the Gulf.
His Twitter dialogues are interesting because he’s able to take a very complex issue and simplify it to its most essential elements.
- REMINDER: Please remember when reading the transcript below that is, after all, a Twitter exchange and, as such, there’s a lot of shorthand and it should not be regarded as a formal presentation of ideas.
QUESTION: Why do you think China has not engaged in any alliances? How can you consider BRICS? Is not it a strategic alliance between Beijing and Moscow?
FULTON: No, not a strategic alliance. China and Russia have a comprehensive strategic partnership. China has had a non-alliance policy since 1982. partnerships let them focus on shared interests without security/defense commitments. partnerships = more freedom, less risk.
COMMENT: Iran is central to the Silk Road project and occupies a strategic place linking Central Asia, the Indian subcontinent, the Middle East and it is a passage to Europe. To say that Iran has the same strategic value as Saudi Arabia or Bahrain for China is enormous bulls***t.
FULTON: First, I said it doesn’t have a partnership with Bahrain. So maybe the bulls***t is less enormous than you seem to think.
Second, [Saudi Arabia] is the biggest economy in MENA. It has access to the Gulf and Red Sea. 2nd biggest crude reserves. It’s pretty important. Iran is potentially important, but as long as IRI is a revisionist state with no important MENA state partners, its value is diminished.
COMMENT: Some ‘partnerships’ are more equal than others: case in point is #Pakistan.
FULTON: Yes, some are. There’s a hierarchy. But even in this Iran is at the same level as [Saudi Arabia], UAE, Egypt, Pakistan, a whole bunch of other countries.—Jonathan Fulton publishes daily comments about China-Gulf relations on his Twitter feed at @jonathandfulton.
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