In his regular column in World Politics Review, the always-interesting author/journalist Howard W. French wrote today about Africa and its booming population will become a transformative power in the future. But contrary to growing enthusiasm among many observers that African countries will be able to industrialize in much the same way that China has done over the past four decades, well, on that front French is not as optimistic.

• “MADE IN AFRICA” WILL NOT BECOME THE NEW “MADE IN CHINA”: “Some commentators pretend that China is in the process of industrializing Africa. This is largely a fantasy, and an unhealthy one, because it makes space for magical thinking about the continent’s problems and thereby avoids serious focus on the daunting challenges at hand. Through no real fault of its own, China is mostly an obstacle to African industrialization. That’s because China industrialized decades ago and now dominates with overwhelming advantages of scale most of the sectors that newly industrialized economies, like those in Africa, seek to enter.”

• BLAME GEOGRAPHY AND FRAGMENTATION: “African economies trying to follow China’s lead, therefore, face historically uncommon challenges. Coupled with another challenge that Africa faces—its severe Balkanization into 54 mostly small states, many of them further handicapped by being landlocked—the prospects of deep or widespread industrialization become even more unlikely.”

Read Howard W. French’s full column on the World Politics Review website.