When U.S. President Donald Trump returned to the White House, he wasted no time reviving his hardline trade stance. Among the 200 executive orders issued on his first day was the America First Trade Policy Memorandum, aimed at rebalancing global trade through sweeping import tariffs.
By April, a 10% blanket tariff on all imports was introduced, followed by steeper, country-specific duties. African countries were not spared Lesotho faces a 50% tariff, South Africa 30%, and Nigeria 14%. These drastic measures threaten African economies that have long benefited from preferential access under initiatives like the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).
In a confusing twist, the U.S. government has now announced a 90-day suspension on tariffs for countries that signal willingness to engage with Washington. No clear criteria have been provided, leaving African governments scrambling to interpret what “engagement” actually means. This abrupt pivot inject fresh uncertainty into an already volatile global trade
Trump’s trade policy is based on the idea that “non-reciprocal trade practices” have hollowed out U.S. manufacturing. But his narrow focus on trade in goods ignores America’s true strength: services! In 2023, the U.S. recorded a $305 billion trade surplus in services; in 2024, $285 billion. From finance and education to tech and logistics, the U.S. dominates globally in services—yet this sector is entirely missing from Trump’s new trade agenda.
China, meanwhile, has responded with retaliatory tariffs of 34% on U.S. goods, export restrictions on rare-earth minerals, and sanctions on U.S. defense firms. This escalation in the U.S.-China trade war now entangles African economies, which are caught in the crossfire between competing superpowers.
The U.S. has made exceptions for raw materials critical to its industries. African minerals are still welcome—but value-added exports and finished goods are penalized. This reinforces Africa’s traditional role as a supplier of unprocessed commodities, stifling the continent’s ambitions to industrialize.
In sharp contrast, China is lowering trade barriers. In March 2025, Beijing announced a zero-tariff regime for 95% of products imported from the least-developed African countries, including Lesotho, Ethiopia, and the DRC. This expands on previous Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) commitments and positions China as a more stable trade partner.
This divergence between U.S. unpredictability and Chinese consistency is reshaping global trade dynamics—and risks undermining the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). If countries begin adjusting tariffs unilaterally to please external powers, Africa’s collective trade bargaining power and regional integration efforts could suffer.
AfCFTA: A Strategic Imperative?
Trump’s trade war offers a clear lesson! Africa must stop relying on external markets to drive its growth. Now is the time to fully implement AfCFTA, which promises to boost intra-African trade across a market of 1.4 billion people. With the right investment in infrastructure, harmonized policies, and support for small and medium enterprises—especially those led by women and youth—Africa can build resilient regional value chains less vulnerable to global shocks.
What About the WTO?
Trump’s use of a “national emergency” loophole to justify tariffs further weakens the World Trade Organization (WTO). As the world’s largest economy disregards multilateral rules, the relevance of a rules-based global trading system comes into question. African countries, often sidelined in global trade decisions, must now choose whether to continue investing in a system being openly undermined—or to build new institutions that reflect African priorities and realities.
A Moment to Reset
Trump’s tariff-first strategy is economically flawed and diplomatically risky. There is little evidence tariffs drive re-industrialization. What they do cause are higher consumer prices, retaliation from trading partners, and uncertainty that disrupts supply chains.
For Africa, this is a moment to reset trade priorities. Diversify markets. Strengthen AfCFTA. Build internal resilience. For the U.S., a tariff-based approach may appear tough, but it ignores the reality of modern trade—where services, technology, and digital platforms define global competitiveness.
African nations may ultimately find Beijing to be a more predictable and pragmatic partner, further cementing China’s influence across the continent.
In the end, nobody wins a trade war.
