This is a free preview of the Africa EVs Weekly Digest, part of the new CGSP Intelligence service.
This week brings new insights into why an electric vehicle revolution is a non-starter in many African countries. Key factors include vested interests and the desire to protect oil revenues. Yet, our work also tracks countries like Ethiopia, where efforts to increase EV adoption suggest that there are alternatives to the oil economy.
Meanwhile, the age-old assertion that “Everyone has a plan for Africa except Africa” is again a point of discussion as ministers gathered in Washington for a Critical Minerals Summit, where African countries. which should have more say on the critical resources needed for e-mobility, were nothing more than spectators at a banquet they had already provided. This summit reminds one of the saying, “If you’re not at the table, you are on the menu.”
This week in Africa’s EV scene:
Kenya’s EV Policy and the Contradicting Reliance on Gasoline and Diesel
Last week, Kenya launched its EV Policy to much fanfare from EV stakeholders. But even before the celebration dust settles, the reality is hitting that the sector will not have an easy ride, and it has to bulldoze its way to survival.
Why This Matters: Kenya’s economy is heavily reliant on imported fuel, and a drop in consumption reduces government revenues. This vested interest means that, even with the launch of the National Electric Mobility Policy, factors under the government’s control will continue to stymie growth in the EV sector.
Ethiopia Kicks off Local Electric Trucks Assembly
The Chinese heavy vehicle manufacturer Xuzhou Construction Machinery Group (XCMG) is supplying Ethiopia’s Anhama Trading, a local conglomerate, with knocked-down kits for the assembly of electric trucks. The trucks will be in the 4.5-20 ton range and come with a 5-year battery warranty.
Why This Matters: Chinese automakers are entrenching themselves in Ethiopia’s auto sector, which will change the current dynamics. This latest partnership is strategically timed to take advantage of a rise in demand for electric trucks after the ban on internal combustion engine vehicles in Ethiopia. Stakeholders should expect increased competition, as several other players are already in the market.
South Africa’s Tariffs on Chinese, Indian Autos
The honeymoon for Chinese and Indian automakers in South Africa may be over, as the country is mulling imposing tariffs on vehicles from Asia. The move is aimed at protecting the country’s auto industry from a flood of imports.
Why This Matters: South Africa’s Department of Trade, Industry, and Competition (DTIC) is assessing potential measures to stem inbound shipments, which will definitely affect the vehicle import businesses. Coming at a time when Chinese automakers were giving other automakers a run for their money, this may be a speed bump that will force another look at how Chinese companies will evolve to survive in the country’s aggressive vehicle sector.
Chinese EV Automakers’ Global Play to Avoid Sinking
As China’s electric-vehicle makers go global to avoid going under, the future remains uncertain for the 129 Chinese EV brands that are trying to outmaneuver each other to survive. Out of these brands, only 15 are expected to be profitable by 2030.
Why This Matters: More competition, more cutting-edge technology, and more affordable vehicles are the likely outcomes. This could affect African countries, where the vehicle market is flooded with second-hand vehicles. The competition among Chinese automakers at home could be a silver lining for many buyers stuck in the used-vehicle market loop.
Nigeria’s Airport Authority Launches 30 Electric Shuttles
The Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria has introduced 30 electric shuttles to support airside and landside operations at the country’s major airports. The fleet includes 10 electric buses and 20 electric saloon cars, part of a broader plan—already approved—to deploy up to 100 electric vehicles at key airports in Lagos and Abuja.
Why This Matters: Governments can accelerate electric vehicle manufacturing by providing offtake deals for locally built units. This will address the job creation dilemma, which remains a challenge for many African countries.
In context
The electric vehicle shift may turn out to be a missed opportunity, as many countries are focused on short-term gains for the oil industry rather than building complementary systems that will help provide reliable mobility solutions for their people. As vested interests continue to take center stage, e-mobility will remain a dream hard to realize.
The takeaway:
African countries have competent innovators capable of creating solutions that are much needed in the transport sector. However, narrow government interests could lead to limited ecosystems where creativity can’t truly thrive. As such, policies will remain good on paper but hardly actionable due to unnecessary bottlenecks that continue to hold back the vehicle manufacturing industry across the continent.
