China’s Next Five-Year Plan and the Global South

China's next phase of development is expected to emphasize domestic consumption, but exports will likely remain central to its growth, with complicated implications for developing economies.

China’s next five-year economic development plan will be unveiled at its largely ceremonial national legislature, the National People’s Congress, on March 5. The plan, which covers 2026 to 2030, will likely outline the CPC’s aim to shift the Chinese economy toward boosting domestic consumption.

However, with high youth unemployment at home and an unpredictable global economic situation, the Chinese government is unlikely to give up on low-level consumption. This complicates Global South countries’ own ambitions for manufacturing-led development, especially as U.S. tariffs have complicated their ability to benefit from China+1 manufacturing.

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